A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 looks like 1-3" shots every couple days as for as the eye can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILLBE CHARGING IN OUR DIRECTION VIA NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT ALL LEVELS AND RESULT IN A RAMPING UP OF OUR SFC WINDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE VERY DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS 1.5 PV SFC DIGGING DOWN TO AS LOW AS 750MB. AT THE SFC...A VERY STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE FRONT RUSHES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...THE SUB 985MB LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY...FURTHER SHARPENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW MAY BE TOO SOUTHERLY TO PROMOTE FUNNELING UP THE LENGTH OF LK ERIE...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY NONETHELESS. BUFKIT PROFILES OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT A CORE OF 50 TO 55KT WINDS AS LOW AS 1500 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THESE WINDS WILL BE NEAR/BELOW THE INVERSION...SO THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS TO REACH THE SFC OVERNIGHT. DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH...BUT AM GETTING CLOSE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT... AND PENDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF WIND...AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL GET ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH...WILL JUST ADDRESS THE OVERALL SCENARIO IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY WHILE SWEEPING ITS STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. IT WILL NOT BE THE DAY TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON. STAY TUNED TO POSSIBLE WINTER STORM OR HIGH WIND WATCHES IN UPCOMING PACKAGES. -NWS BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 that sure is red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Friday could be a nice lake enhanced snow/wind event for northern mich. models have some beefy 5 day snow totals as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Tough to get much accumulation with a SW wind. Although the dynamics look like they may be strong enough to combat the downsloping a bit. NAM really illustrates this point well. I have found that in past events it tend's to overdo the extent of the downsloping across the area, especially with a SW wind. Would help if the low tracked further north and we got into more of a westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 NAM really illustrates this point well. I have found that in past events it tend's to overdo the extent of the downsloping across the area, especially with a SW wind. Would help if the low tracked further north and we got into more of a westerly flow. nam_pr3_slp_t850_ne_25.png Even the lower res GFS shows the downsloping, with less precision. I'm rooting for more of a S-SSW wind, which is off Lk Ontario. Not enough fetch for enhancement but at least we don't get it blowing down the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 1-2 definitely not happening today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 1-2 definitely not happening today Ya. I got equipment scheduled, but based on radar....was wondering if development will occur on next arctic front? Been a tough year for planning purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It is all the snow from the runways, I am 100% serious, it isn't going to melt until June, especially if we keep going the way we have. The weird thing is the top layer of the pile is rock hard but inside there are regions of softer more manageable snow. The bottom where the asphalt sits usually consists of 4-5" of super hard ice which wicks the cold from the surrounding asphalt. This stuff will not move no matter the down pressure of the loader. To get it to release you have to pour a inch thick ribbon of salt on the ice, wait a few days at return with the machine to pry it off the surface. If the runways of the airport are concrete the pile will be there forever. As the pile melts the crumbs of the surface layer of the plowed surface will raise to the surface and help radiate the suns energy into the top layer and speed up the process. This is holds true even more on older asphalt .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 1-2 definitely not happening today Pretty much. The morning DAB and afternoon inch looks like just a DAB altogether now. Not too surprising though given most guidance had <0.05" QPF. -SN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 friday frontal passage is so damn fast on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Pretty much. The morning DAB and afternoon inch looks like just a DAB altogether now. Not too surprising though given most guidance had <0.05" QPF. -SN here. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 -SN here in Racine, but it is pixie dust sized flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Friday continues to look like the most interesting in this series. 12z NAM close to advisory level for many. Deep dgz, some omega, etc. System speed should keep amounts in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The 12z NAM is pure awesomeness for about 6hr with that wind. 3-4" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z NAM probably not done with some weenie runs for the Friday night/Saturday impulse/front. And it'll be too bullish until the end. But yeah, drops 0.27" LE on LAF. No matter, I still think it's got potential for some relatively high impact stuff with the snow/wind combo...even if totals are only 1-2". Good luck measuring it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z NAM probably not done with some weenie runs for the Friday night/Saturday impulse/front. And it'll be too bullish until the end. But yeah, drops 0.27" LE on LAF. of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 -SN .... previous cleared surfaces are white....half inch seems do able today....maybe an inch for some...radar is meh-ish.....but even "meh" has done ok this year (and given temps, ratios should be decent) ... either way, half inch to inch seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Would bet the farm that the GEM/EURO are too far north with the Sunday/Monday clipper. GFS is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Would bet the farm that the GEM/EURO are too far north with the Sunday/Monday clipper. GFS is the way to go. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Would bet the farm that the GEM/EURO are too far north with the Sunday/Monday clipper. GFS is the way to go. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Why? The deep vortex that causes the Friday-Saturday clipper is going to be spinning over QC just as the next s/w (the Sunday-Monday clipper) is diving around its backside. In that scenario, there's not going to be enough wavelength for the latter s/w to amplify. A flatter, more southerly wave is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z GFS not as amped for the Friday night/Saturday stuff...and thus the next one gonna come north. 0z Euro FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Well, at least wisconsinwx might win one for once. Wagons north, for now... Have to think low-mid 40's on the table here. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Well, at least wisconsinwx might win one for once. Wagons north, for now... Have to think low-mid 40's on the table here. Blah. nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z GFS not as amped for the Friday night/Saturday stuff...and thus the next one gonna come north. 0z Euro FTW? I think it'll come down to how much of the vortex retrogrades to the west and phases with the 2nd s/w. If there's not perfect symbiosis, the 2nd wave will tend to be weaker and further south. I'll play the probabilities and say south is still the way to go, 12z GFS notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The deep vortex that causes the Friday-Saturday clipper is going to be spinning over QC just as the next s/w (the Sunday-Monday clipper) is diving around its backside. In that scenario, there's not going to be enough wavelength for the latter s/w to amplify. A flatter, more southerly wave is the way to go. Eat your crow mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 love the way Toronto Blizzard usurps victory ~100 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Lol talk about a jump. 996mb over IKK Geos jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 another solid hit on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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