BowMeHunter Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Easy over on Alek's call for HBY. IND AFD says 2-3" north of I-74. New LAF zone has 1" total. Must have saw the 18z NAM and bought it completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Would be nice to get about 3.5". That would get me to 50" for the season and over the 2' mark for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 apx afd IS JUST SNOW, SNOW, AND MORE SNOW 4-7" more inches tomorrow and tomorrow night. Think I'm gonna have to clear the snow off the shed roof. the one side measures 36" deep and I feel like the walls are starting to buckle. :/ Random but I gotta imagine you can grow some stuff up there that normally wouldn't be hardy as far north as you are, with the warmth of the lake and insanely deep snowpack to insulate the ground. Seems like a cool place to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 lol, where do you think the snow that falls tomorrow is going to go? You're trying to minimize every facet of this upcoming snow and cold. You just got to deal with it, and look forward to better times down the road. It'll get better soon. Hang in there, pal. What he said really isn't even correct...unless single digits and teens are mild. The bulk of the snow will be falling in the morning before temps warm much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In need of one of the RAP south trends as it gets closer. The 21z run verbatim is awful here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 15z SREF precip valid 12z Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Anyone catch the blizzard warning talk from LOT? OVERALL...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING HIT OF SNOW ACROSS THEAREA...THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINDOW OFMODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...THISSTILL APPEARS TO BE A 2 TO 4 INCH EVENT FOR MOST AREAS.HOWEVER...THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD EASILY PRODUCE SNOWRATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...AND PRODUCE UP TO 4 TO 5INCHES IN SOME AREAS WITHIN ONLY A 4 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD. IT CURRENTLYAPPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY FALLFROM AROUND DIXON EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE JOLIET AREA...WITH2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TO OBTAIN THESE SNOW AMOUNTS IFOLLOWED CLOSE TO A 15-20 TO 1 RATIO NORTH...WHERE THE DGZ WILL BETHE DEEPEST...AND A 12-15 TO 1 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.THE SNOW SHOULD ONSET AROUND 1 OR 2 AM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOISAND AROUND 3 AM IN THE CHICAGO AREA....AND LAST THROUGH MIDMORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MIDLEVELS. GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL AT A RAPID RATE...I HAVECHOSEN TO ISSUE AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.ONCE THE SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERINGDRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MODELBUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAINSATURATED BELOW THE DGZ...AND HENCE THE CLOUDS COULD BECOME VOID OFICE CRYSTALS SETTING UP DRIZZLE. IN SPITE OF THIS POTENTIAL...I HAVECHOSEN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...DUE TOITS LIKELIHOOD OF BEING SHORT LIVED.ALTHOUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY BE QUIET FOR A PERIOD...AFTER THE PRECIPABATES...I HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOINGTHROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REASON FOR DOING THIS IS BECAUSE A STRONGARCTIC FRONT IS SET TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERYEARLY SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...STRONGPRESSURE RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREBEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THESTAGE FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPHWITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESEWINDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOPACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEWLY FALLEN DRY SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND.IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOW SHOWERS WILL BEOCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONG WINDS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATESARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALYDROPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONALLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FALLING SNOW INCONJUNCTION WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD RESULT INBETTER CHANCES FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AT THE PRESENT...I HAVECHOSEN TO COVER THIS THREAT WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...DUETO UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME AND HOW MUCHADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME. IF IT APPEARS THAT A DECENTAMOUNT OF SNOW FALLS WITH THE STRONG WINDS SUNDAY EVENING...IT MAYBE NECESSARY TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO EITHER A WINTER STORM ORBLIZZARD WARNING. That's interesting, but also the mention of freezing drizzle chances. That would change conditions for when it gets windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Kinda wondering why the 4+ area doesn't extend all the way through into IN. Haven't really seen anything suggesting it will weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In need of one of the RAP south trends as it gets closer. The 21z run verbatim is awful here. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 best new role reversal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 best new role reversal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Relax. lol I think I know why it's so dry for us. It has a pesky dry layer around 925 mb that never goes away. This really doesn't show up on other models, at least not to that extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 lol I think I know why it's so dry for us. It has a pesky dry layer around 925 mb that never goes away. This really doesn't show up on other models, at least not to that extent. Heavy virga watch has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 DVN upgraded to a winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is this like the 5th different blizzard warning for the some of the Dakotas in the last 2.5 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z MAV has us going from 9 degrees at 7 AM to 32 at 1 PM...would be one thing if it was sunny but there should be plenty of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 DVN just sent a disco update in which they suggest the system may be tracking farther north than they expected and they may have to drop the southern portion of the advisory/warning. Given today's more northerly models I had already given up on anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Point forecast now has 0° for a low near midnight then rising as snow moves in. Increasing ratios all day. 3.1" total in the grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Point forecast now has 0° for a low near midnight then rising as snow moves in. Increasing ratios all day. 3.1" total in the grid. Snow will be done by about 9AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Updated from LOT :please note this was created on 1/26/14 per diagram.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gonna upgrade my forecast from 3/4-1 1/4" tonight/early tomorrow to 1-2". As per usual the best snows should line up from northeast Iowa to northeast IL. Dubuque/Rochelle/LOT prime locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 0z NAM is a shutout for LAF. Must be a nasty dry layer in there somewhere. Oh well, Hoosier wins again. EDIT: yep, dry lower levels win. Should be some solid virga. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The radar view of the Clipper currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 New LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 LOT 843 PM...EVENING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONSOVERNIGHT BY SHIFTING AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS A LITTLE FURTHERNORTH WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED NORTH OF A STREATOR TO REMINGTONINDIANA LINE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE. GUIDANCECONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER WIDE RANGE OF SNOW/WATER RATIOS WHICHIS LIKELY DUE TO DEPTH OF THE GROWTH ZONE AND CORRESPONDING BESTLIFT. HAVE USED A SLIGHTLY LOWER RATIO OF 17:1 OVERNIGHT...WHICHIS THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE BUT INITIAL SNOWFALL COULD BE RATHER DRYAND IF A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD ONLYLAST 1-2 HOURS...ITS POSSIBLE FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER/DRIER RATIOS.ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES/ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER/POPGRIDS BUT OVERALL GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 0z NAM NAM_012614_0zsnow.jpg Extend the 4"+ swath to include Wyandotte and I think we have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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