cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Like this...LAF/OKK area. Promise this is my last NAM forecast sounding for now. Untitled.png That's only 70kts at the top of the mixed layer. No biggie lol. The variety of solutions is very interesting. Each one sort of has their upsides to them depending on what you're interested in. The GEM and UKIE would indicate a wind-whipped second wave of snows as strong CAA locks in. Would probably be rocking out for a time with the strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I love that the GEM started out so far north with the Sunday clipper and now it appears the most south. Even in a snowy winter, dont think I havent noticed the typical model mayhem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Love that out-of-place blob of 0.50"+ in extreme SE MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Somehow the Toronto snow forcefield has vanished and now we have a 0.6" speck over us. Model riding is not for the faint of heart this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So now both the GFS and GEM have a more close idea and a very deep DGZ in northern IL even with the heaviest QPF axis just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Give the models a break, they don't have 1918 and 1857 in their data bases, or Feb 1934. Anything that looks remotely like warm air advection or vortex hugging tracks of clippers is likely to turn out wrong, the chinook warming with clippers tends to get dropped off somewhere between Omaha and Des Moines never to be seen again except as a weak downslope for DC and VA perhaps. We've seen two or three examples of this bogus warm air advection already in this essentially fall-off-a-cliff pattern. These next two systems are probably worth about 2" then 4-6" for most in this forum, but the second one could be followed by some hefty squalls despite frigid temps and cold lakes. However, this sequence will be long remembered (I think) for its severe cold and accumulating snow depths. If a major snowstorm ever forms during this cold spell, it could then move into the very exclusive part of the pantheon. I am living it vicariously, if you had my winter you would see a mass weenie suicide. And I am 500 miles closer to the north pole too. Oh well, we had Dec 2008 and before that Jan 1950. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Love that out-of-place blob of 0.50"+ in extreme SE MI The Josh Jackpot. It will be right too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Actually the GEM has looked more like a clipper the past two runs now more than the GFS/NAM has. Over/under top wind gusts at ORD Tomorrow pre snow: 41kts During snow: 28kts Will set Sunday wind gust lines tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Another stellar week of snow. Looks to be the beginning of another even crazier cycle of snow, wind and acetic air. Old man winter is set to double down and go all in for the last week of the month. My theory is if its going to be cold and snowy let's make it epic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 00z Euro seems like it might go a little south for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibbs33 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 00z Euro seems like it might go a little south for Sunday. Hoosier... Whats it show snow wise for CMH Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 LOL, im confused by what happens on the euro between hours 66 and 72? ....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 00z Euro seems like it might go a little south for Sunday. Totally different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 One thing all Winter that cannot be ignored is these clippers always seem to be a bit further North than what the models project...that has me a bit concerned here in my area for the snow potential Saturday Night and early Sunday. I say this as we are riding the line between some decent snow and what we've normally been doing with these, ie. 1-2" at a time. I just don't feel the love here in the Quad Cities for 3-5" amounts on that second clipper just yet. I hope it comes to be. I really hope the cold isn't quite as intense as whats being depicted as I'd like my car to start. My condo doesn't provide us with indoor parking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Josh Jackpot. It will be right too. Jokes aside...it is crazy how often DTW-south has scored in recent years. It almost seems like 50/50 anymore, half the time the northern burbs do better, half the time the southern burbs....back in the '90s my expectation was that we would get one storm where the southern burbs jackpotted, all the rest would hit north of town better. Toledo would be putting their previous snowiest all-time month TO SHAME if these solutions pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The fact that it's a CAA event kinda has me concerned about wind potential, especially if the stronger solutions verify. Some of the NAM soundings are a little freakish for a period... Power outages before the next cold shot could be problematic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Totally different solution. classic but still lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 classic but still lame This weather has me applying to jobs in Texas. (Bye-bye winter?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Kind of surprising that other than LOT none of the other NWS offices are even mentioning the possibility of near blizzard conditions. And power outages are a scary thought with the cold coming early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Kind of surprising that other than LOT none of the other NWS offices are even mentioning the possibility of near blizzard conditions. And power outages are a scary thought with the cold coming early next week. GRR is mentioning this for the lake shore counties. If the wind increases it will definitely happen. Couldn't see the road or lane lines half the time this morning on the way in to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This just might end up as Detroit's snowiest month ever if this keeps up. Epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This weather has me applying to jobs in Texas. (Bye-bye winter?) You sure you want to do that? Just went out to start the truck. -8°. This is getting old. Hard to believe that it could be snowing later. My point is only giving out 1-2" for the entire event (Friday-Sunday). Must have been written by Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just went out to start the truck. -8°. This is getting old. Hard to believe that it could be snowing later. My point is only giving out 1-2" for the entire event (Friday-Sunday). Must have been written by Tim. I see 2-4" total in your p&c. But if I wrote it, probably would've bumped it by an inch to 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 You sure you want to do that? Texas Storm.png Just went out to start the truck. -8°. This is getting old. Hard to believe that it could be snowing later. My point is only giving out 1-2" for the entire event (Friday-Sunday). Must have been written by Tim. 1-2" is a bit light, I agree with Tim 3-5" sounds about right by Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 P & C has me at 1 to 3 for tonight ... incredible sunrise this morning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 You sure you want to do that? Touché. Fate will probably suspend me around these parts anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 P & C has me at 1 to 3 for tonight ... incredible sunrise this morning here yep cruising along lake shore drive right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 hourly also has me down for 2.7 on sunday....hopefully ORD can squeak out 5 inches this weekend one way or another to keep the monthly record within reach somewhat...although the chances of breaking that record are looking pretty low in all honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z NAM coming in a little hotter for tonight/Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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