Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Hoosier/Chicago Wx battle is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Hoosier/Chicago Wx battle is intriguing. I can't tell if he's playing around or not...would be nice to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 There's other models besides the NAM, and it's just coming more in line with the average model output of .15-.20 for us. We should manage better than 10:1 ratios tomorrow/Saturday and maybe Sunday although that gets more tricky with the rapid WAA aloft. Chad's upper range may be optimistic but I really don't see how we come out of this period with less than 3" I'm seeing a fairly good weakening trend on impulse #1...so that's where I see our 1-2". Ratios be damned, because they rarely work out. The Sunday deal is going way north a la the Euro, GGEM, Ukie and now NAM. We'll be lucky to see much of anything with that one before WAA shoots us way above freezing for a time. And as usual, WAA is severely underestimated by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Starting to look like the brunt of the precip for the sun event falls between 2am-7am here. Won't be awake when it happens. Not that I'll miss much. I'm looking forward to the potential snow squalls on sunday more than anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS remains lost. lol to the 0z run depiction for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 ^ GFS says sharpen your shovels LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS through Sun night at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 ^ GFS says sharpen your shovels LAF. Haha, you don't do too bad yourself. Too bad it's drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Tomorrow night's system looks pretty clear, at least for this area, but the Sunday clipper has been all over the place depending on what model you look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Haha, you don't do too bad yourself. Too bad it's drunk. It must be boozin' it up with Uncle UKie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well, the 0z RGEM is way west and south at 48 hours with impulse #2 (middle of SD at 0z Sunday). Probably doesn't mean much at all, but it has to have a better idea on Canadian sampling, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm seeing a fairly good weakening trend on impulse #1...so that's where I see our 1-2". Ratios be damned, because they rarely work out. The Sunday deal is going way north a la the Euro, GGEM, Ukie and now NAM. We'll be lucky to see much of anything with that one before WAA shoots us way above freezing for a time. And as usual, WAA is severely underestimated by the models. The WAA is our friend in this setup...it's what will give us a burst of snow. Hopefully it doesn't get out of control. I like the cold airmass at onset...we are not talking about starting at 28 and getting blasted with warm air. We start the day in the single digits or teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z UK to the moon. 994mb overtop Bo's house at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pretty impressive winds behind the cold front Sunday afternoon. NAM showing a few pockets of 30kts sustained winds over northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pretty impressive winds behind the cold front Sunday afternoon. NAM showing a few pockets of 30kts sustained winds over northern IL. NAM is standing on the rooftop and screaming high wind event. It shows some areas mixing to near 700 mb and 50-60 kt winds in the mixed layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Actually, the 0z Ukie looks kinda interesting, in a way. Granted what happens between 60 and 72 is probably warmish for here. But that trailing low at 72 hours is intruiging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So confused by GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 As long as I get more than 1.1" of snow by the end of the month, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Near Chicago at 72 hours. Very strong wind potential if this is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS through Sun night at midnight. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Total moisture from the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z GEM has gone south a bit for the Sunday impulse. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Near Chicago at 72 hours. Very strong wind potential if this is right. Untitled.png Wow. It is the NAM, but interesting that it's indicating this. I think either way you slice it, the progression of things on Sunday is looking very interesting. Strong post-frontal winds with an insane temp crash in a 6-12hr period is interesting enough. Any snow that falls before that is sort of a bonus to this big time event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z GEM has gone south a bit for the Sunday impulse. Hmmm. May have jumped ship too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Wow. It is the NAM, but interesting that it's indicating this. I think either way you slice it, the progression of things on Sunday is looking very interesting. Strong post-frontal winds with an insane temp crash in a 6-12hr period is interesting enough. Any snow that falls before that is sort of a bonus to this big time event. The fact that it's a CAA event kinda has me concerned about wind potential, especially if the stronger solutions verify. Some of the NAM soundings are a little freakish for a period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Total moisture from the RGEM. Always so much moisture wasted over Lake Michigan (for obvious reasons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 May have jumped ship too soon. It's a weird run...but it shows a UK like solution with a second trailing low that ends up east of CLE at 84 hours at 996mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The fact that it's a CAA event kinda has me concerned about wind potential, especially if the stronger solutions verify. Some of the NAM soundings are a little freakish for a period... Like this...LAF/OKK area. Promise this is my last NAM forecast sounding for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thanks, beavis for the Chicago January numbers. Factoring in today's values, currently sitting near 16.5F mean temp, which represents 17th coldest in 142 years (1873-2014) and projected to drop further to end up possibly 8th between 1918 and 1963 (13.3, tied 6th) and 1985 (14.4, now 8th). Only 1977 (10.2), 1912 (11.9), 1893 (12.1), 1982 (12.2) and 1979 (12.4) were colder than all of the above. To break 13.3 after today's known values would require close to a zero F mean 24th to 31st while the projections are closer to 5 F which leaves the month at about 14.0, 0.4 colder than 1985 which may or may not be safe, and 0.9 colder than 1888 (currently 9th and in need of midnight highs and such to escape dropping to 10th). Almost certain to be passed are 1978, 1994 and 2009 all tied for 10th (15.9), 1875 at 13th now (16.1), 1887 and 1940 tied for 14th (16.3), and soon to feel our wrath 1883 (16th at 16.4). If there were records from 1841 to 1872 as with Toronto, only 1856 and 1857 appear likely to get onto this list for certain, 1872 possibly. Would imagine 1857 would then hold first place but 2014 could pass the other two. That would then make it eventually somewhere around 9th or 10th coldest in 174 tries. Will update as we pass various benchmarks. Cross-posted to the cold weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.