Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Looking like now it's going to be more front end advection snows and not the GFS like solution we were seeing on Tuesday which looked more like a real clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Cheer up. I can already see your third 12"+ storm of the season in the long range. haha, i'm just playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Quite the temperature drop with this thing on sunday night, and winds seem as though they could be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Going to be low ratios with temperatures like this... The snow has fallen by then. I'm guessing ratios will be above average around there but how far is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'd watch the arctic front for some short-term surprises too...with the Sunday deal. Those have been energetic lately. 12z Euro and 18z NAM hinting at that, with the "splotchy" or "lined" QPF look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Lol point and click has a low of -15 sunday night with gusts to 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 2-4 on my p&c for tomorrow evening...seems high, might be old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 18z NAM extracted data has 850 mb temps of -9.2C here at 66 hours and +0.3C at 69 hours. That's wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 looks like a WWA for LOT for tomorrow...mostly because of the blowing and drifting hourly has me down for 2.3 for tomorrow/Saturday morning's system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 looks like a WWA for LOT for tomorrow...mostly because of the blowing and drifting hourly has me down for 2.3 for tomorrow/Saturday morning's system Going bullish 2-4 in my zone forecast. Either way...cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 18z GFS should be stronger/wetter with Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 998mb over DSM, north and wetter. And back to showing the 400mb deep DGZ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 ILX going with a 1-3" total through monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 local news channels touting blizzard like conditions tomorrow/tnight... point has 8" total for tomorrow/tnight.... with "several" more inches possible each 12 hr period thru Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm going with 1-2" tomorrow night, and 1/2-1" for Sat night/early sunday for here/QC. Euro continues to indicate some fun times for Sunday afternoon with the strong CAA. Looking very squally for Iowa into northern/central IL by mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll go with 2-2.5" for tomorrow night. 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pivoting of the PV is going to allow the second s/w to amplify way more than I thought it would. I'll go ahead an abandon my call for an OV track. Serve me my crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Alek will enjoy the 0z NAM for Sunday's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Alek will enjoy the 0z NAM for Sunday's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pivoting of the PV is going to allow the second s/w to amplify way more than I thought it would. I'll go ahead an abandon my call for an OV track. Serve me my crow. Never doubt the king when it locks onto a storm. Sort of a wild ride for LAF on Sunday on the 0z NAM, with temps. And maybe 2-3" of total snow for the entire run...though thinking we may be closer to a T-1" when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Never doubt the king when it locks onto a storm. Sort of a wild ride for LAF on Sunday on the 0z NAM, with temps. And maybe 2-3" of total snow for the entire run...though thinking we may be closer to a T-1" when all is said and done. 1:24 0z NAM LAF.png No way. Chad's 3-7" call for Friday to Sunday is looking pretty solid at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah that's pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This looks nice for Sunday even if it's a quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 No way. Chad's 3-7" call for Friday to Sunday is looking pretty solid at this point. Easy under on 3-7". He's way too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Easy under on 3-7". He's way too bullish. We should easily get 2-3" tomorrow/Saturday so we'd have to get completely shut out on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sunday event looks similar to 1-31-1971 (may include 1-30-1971 in Midwest) which I recall being a 6-hr outbreak of moderate snow ending with a sudden temp drop from near freezing to near zero (F). Add in lake effect or enhancement where applicable. Appears very likely to end with dangerous blowing snow and wind chill values, a widespread ground blizzard and over open country a true blizzard. Can somebody post coldest ORD monthly values? I want to compare to end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 We should easily get 2-3" tomorrow/Saturday so we'd have to get completely shut out on Sunday. Trend is for tomorrow/Saturday to be not much of anything. NAM, which has been the most aggressive, has slashed totals with every run. And Sunday...it gonna torch. I like 1-2" total for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sunday event looks similar to 1-31-1971 (may include 1-30-1971 in Midwest) which I recall being a 6-hr outbreak of moderate snow ending with a sudden temp drop from near freezing to near zero (F). Add in lake effect or enhancement where applicable. Appears very likely to end with dangerous blowing snow and wind chill values, a widespread ground blizzard and over open country a true blizzard. Can somebody post coldest ORD monthly values? I want to compare to end of this month. Here are the January monthly temps in Chicago (note ORD has only been the official site since 1980): http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=chi_jan_temp_rankings Jan 2014 month-to-date thru 1/22 is 17.2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Trend is for tomorrow/Saturday to be not much of anything. NAM, which has been the most aggressive, has slashed totals with every run. And Sunday...it gonna torch. I like 1-2" total for everything. There's other models besides the NAM, and it's just coming more in line with the average model output of .15-.20 for us. We should manage better than 10:1 ratios tomorrow/Saturday and maybe Sunday although that gets more tricky with the rapid WAA aloft. Chad's upper range may be optimistic but I really don't see how we come out of this period with less than 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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