Toronto4 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Lake band did not affect Toronto. Has settled firmly to the south and is in the process of disintegrating. Toronto Blizzard should be here any moment calling me a retard for giving up on it so soon. I can confirm this. Just a few overnight flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NAM coming in weaker again with Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's still quite strong overall. 992mb over us after a nice front end 2-4" Compromise between the 0/6z runs. Over/under at ORD ending 6z Monday....4.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's still quite strong overall. 992mb over us after a nice front end 2-4" Compromise between the 0/6z runs. Over/under at ORD ending 6z Monday....4.6" under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z NAM is probably best case for LAF. A little front end love and then "torch". The WAA and CAA on that run is fairly impressive, as we go from -8.4C at 850 at 72 hours to 0.7C at 78, and then back to -8.3C at 84 hours. Sorry for the debbies, but that kind of roller coaster may have a little more punch than indicated on the QPF maps (for areas outlined for snow). And Hoosier's total totals index peaks at 42.8 for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I admire you guys standing strong...but the GFS is your only hope. That's like bringing a knife to a gun fight. But hey, meteorology not modelology, right? The retrograding vortex makes this setup a little different, and if it essentially phases in with the more westerly s/w...the EURO could be right. But like I said earlier, if the interaction is disjointed at all, you'll tend to get a weaker and more sheared out storm. Also, the 2nd s/w, the one that'll form the clipper, isn't coming in from the Pacific from what I can tell. It's actually dropping straight down from the Arctic. I'm sure there's still tons of sampling issues to be resolved as well. So could the Toronto area see 2" out of this or will it mainly be flurries being blown around by a strong wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z NAM is probably best case for LAF. A little front end love and then "torch". The WAA and CAA on that run is fairly impressive, as we go from -8.4C at 850 at 72 hours to 0.7C at 78, and then back to -8.3C at 84 hours. Sorry for the debbies, but that kind of roller coaster may have a little more punch than indicated on the QPF maps (for areas outlined for snow). And Hoosier's total totals index peaks at 42.8 for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 So could the Toronto area see 2" out of this or will it mainly be flurries being blown around by a strong wind? Worst case scenario: whiff Best case scenario: ~6" synoptic + LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GFS continuing the trend towards a lamer Friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GFS looks quite a bit slower with the sunday system....better fronto snows compared to the 00Z but drier with the system snows...through H78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 lol, 12z GFS definitely "mehs" the Sunday clipper. Gets going later I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 zzzzzzz might be time to shake this pattern up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Even the euro was blah for the weekend event. Looks like the same penny and nickel type stuff we've dealt with for the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The GFS meh Sunday clipper holds down the WAA here in CMH and probably helps us get more snow with better ratios. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Picked up another 0.2" last night. So the total pixie-dust clipper snowfall totals were: 1.6" FNT, 1.3" ARB, 1.3" DTW, 1.2" mby, 1.1" DTX. Don't know when I will get this project done, but I am going to tally up (from DTW obs) how many hours snow has fallen this winter. To keep it simple, I will use only when snow was reported at the top of a hour. Want to have as much detail as possible when looking up data on this winter in the future, because its one for the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The GFS meh Sunday clipper holds down the WAA here in CMH and probably helps us get more snow with better ratios. I'll take it! Did it look weird to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The GFS meh Sunday clipper holds down the WAA here in CMH and probably helps us get more snow with better ratios. I'll take it! NAM has .3 for the Fri/Sat event and appears to be all snow for the Sunday system, albeit close. Either way the Sunday clipper is mostly a snow or no type system. Not going to be much rain/mix with it even where it does warm up enough for it. We might actually be in a decent spot for both believe it or not, but right now the best areas outside LE for both systems combined look to be northeast, and eastern OH. As hard as it's been to get anything over 2" around here lately, I'd call 2-4" for tomorrow night/Saturday morning and 1-2" for Sunday. Basically 3-6" for both combined, leaning closer to the low end of that based on our recent crap luck streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NAM has .3 for the Fri/Sat event and appears to be all snow for the Sunday system, albeit close. Either way the Sunday clipper is mostly a snow or no type system. Not going to be much rain/mix with it even where it does warm up enough for it. We might actually be in a decent spot for both believe it or not, but right now the best areas outside LE for both systems combined look to be northeast, and eastern OH. As hard as it's been to get anything over 2" around here lately, I'd call 2-4" for tomorrow night/Saturday morning and 1-2" for Sunday. Basically 3-6" for both combined, leaning closer to the low end of that. I think the Friday/Saturday event looks like our best bet with .25" qpf in a very cold air mass. I'd go 3-4" with that one and 2-3" for Sunday. I'd lean towards 5" for a total of both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 And then there's the 12z Ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think the Friday/Saturday event looks like our best bet with .25" qpf in a very cold air mass. I'd go 3-4" with that one and 2-3" for Sunday. I'd lean towards 5" for a total of both storms. seems the gfs and nam have been too generous with snowfall prediction while the euro has been pretty good, (did very well with last system when it showed 1.2 for us. Euro is only putting out 2.5-3" for both systems across Franklin County, If it holds to that range, it'll be hard for me to buy into anything above 3" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Canadian looks like a nice hit for n. IN and n. OH....looks warm here....like it would bring mix/rain to at least I-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Canadian looks like a nice hit for n. IN and n. OH....looks warm here....like it would bring mix/rain to at least I-70 Wanna take bets on the Euro? My call for both is 2.2. Next............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wanna take bets on the Euro? My call for both is 2.2. Next............... I'd like to dig into the Canadian details more. It actually looks like it might be iffy to start but a quick changeover to snow. Hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 seems the gfs and nam have been too generous with snowfall prediction while the euro has been pretty good, (did very well with last system when it showed 1.2 for us. Euro is only putting out 2.5-3" for both systems across Franklin County, If it holds to that range, it'll be hard for me to buy into anything above 3" total. It's tough because with each storm, there has been one set of models that has done horrifically with it, and with each storm that set changes. It's hard to argue with anyone who says we'll get screwed because it's been happening over and over all winter. Having said that, it should be noted that the Euro tends to be a bit too dry with events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 And then there's the 12z Ukie... 12z Ukie 72.gif 1:23 12z Ukie 850.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'd like to dig into the Canadian details more. It actually looks like it might be iffy to start but a quick changeover to snow. Hard to tell What happened to dark side Buck? Please come back....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Presently snow at an inch per hour in Michiana as a band moves through with winter wx advisory extended till 7 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What happened to dark side Buck? Please come back....... If I've projected optimism in my tone, it was completely unintended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If I've projected optimism in my tone, it was completely unintended. Shwew. Thank goodness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.