Harry Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The snow is great, other than for traveling, but I could do without it being this cold. It is amazing that there really looks like no break coming. I mean we had at least a glimpse of a potential pattern change with the MJO finally moving but now it looks like it will move right back into the COD and the teleconnections, some are favorable but the EPO is still decently negative and that doesn't look to change anytime soon. Would help if we could get that damn PNA to slip back towards neutral ( NAO stay positive ) and maybe even a lil negative as that would allow systems to once again start rolling in out of the sw and give us a little bit of a se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Would help if we could get that damn PNA to slip back towards neutral ( NAO stay positive ) and maybe even a lil negative as that would allow systems to once again start rolling in out of the sw and give us a little bit of a se ridge. That is one teleconnection that is forecast to play along, probably by the 1st, I know it is modeled to drop before then but I think there will be a latency of a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The GFS has been a disaster lately. Its medium range was so badly sampled tonight. I doubt the shorter ranges will be much better. Just not a pattern for it obviously. I agree, up until just a few runs ago, it was missing the cold altogether, but it has it now, and I feel it's the right idea. The blocking just won't be denied. Even though the NAO is in a + state, the higher heights have set up over northern Greenland, thus causing storms to cut up the east coast a deliver a decent snowfall event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 lake band is going to tease the western shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 6z runs were dry for both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 lake band is going to tease the western shore Looks like there's some circulation to the band/complex. Might be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Starting to look like a prolonged snow event for nw lower Friday-sun and maybe beyond. Could very well see a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 fwiw still thinking south is the way to go for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 fwiw still thinking south is the way to go for sunday It's you against the world (of models). I'm siding with consensus, and punting that one for LAF. Generally, I-80 and north (in IL and IN) will be solid me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 fwiw still thinking south is the way to go for sundayAPX says they're splitting the difference on the south and north solution for the official forecast but leaning north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Granted it's trashy, but the 0z GGEM is sorta interesting for late Saturday/early Sunday. It has a front end "thump" for the QC, MKE, ORD, PIA, SBN, LAF, FWA, IND, DTW, TOL, CMH, etc...despite eventually bring the low overtop Bo's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's you and ssc against the world (of models). I'm siding with consensus, and punting that one for LAF. Generally, I-80 and north (in IL and IN) will be solid me thinks. fyp. Although if there's still a EURO/GEM/UKIE consensus by 0z Sat I may have to reconsider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 fyp. Although if there's still a EURO/GEM/UKIE consensus by 0z Sat I may have to reconsider. I admire you guys standing strong...but the GFS is your only hope. That's like bringing a knife to a gun fight. But hey, meteorology not modelology, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Lake band did not affect Toronto. Has settled firmly to the south and is in the process of disintegrating. Toronto Blizzard should be here any moment calling me a retard for giving up on it so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Starting to look like a prolonged snow event for nw lower Friday-sun and maybe beyond. Could very well see a foot. NW flow lake effect events will probably start shutting down for you because northern Lake Michigan is getting quite icy. You'll have to hope for SW flow enhanced events like you'll have Friday and Friday night. Not to mention that these extreme cold and dry airmasses aren't great for pure LES anyway. You get the pixie dust flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 fronto snows creeping back into LOT's discussions (specifically regarding pre-sunday clipper timeframe)....the frontos have been decent performers this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I admire you guys standing strong...but the GFS is your only hope. That's like bringing a knife to a gun fight. But hey, meteorology not modelology, right? The retrograding vortex makes this setup a little different, and if it essentially phases in with the more westerly s/w...the EURO could be right. But like I said earlier, if the interaction is disjointed at all, you'll tend to get a weaker and more sheared out storm. Also, the 2nd s/w, the one that'll form the clipper, isn't coming in from the Pacific from what I can tell. It's actually dropping straight down from the Arctic. I'm sure there's still tons of sampling issues to be resolved as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NW flow lake effect events will probably start shutting down for you because northern Lake Michigan is getting quite icy. You'll have to hope for SW flow enhanced events like you'll have Friday and Friday night. Not to mention that these extreme cold and dry airmasses aren't great for pure LES anyway. You get the pixie dust flakes.Persistent pixie adds up over the days, plus doesn't have a high settle issue. Also, with strong sw winds for 2 days, APX thinks ice will compact/break up and get shoved further north, leaving the lake more open this weekend for snow. Also with a possible connection to superior, I could still do very well. After this weekend as far as ice goes, all bets are off on lake snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 fyp. Although if there's still a EURO/GEM/UKIE consensus by 0z Sat I may have to reconsider. I know it's in la la land but the NAM looks intriguing as well. Great track from MKE to DTW and most likely through our area. LEHS also in play with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro has been horrendous this year. Always playing catch, last to the party it seems. GFS leading the way all winter On the whole, the Euro has been not that much different, in terms of overall quality, compared to other models. It has won some, it has lost many, but is the GFS or NAM really any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 fgen action should help sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 On the whole, the Euro has been not that much different, in terms of overall quality, compared to other models. It has won some, it has lost many, but is the GFS or NAM really any different? Agreed. Sounds like many here forget the Euro was the most consistent with the big one early this month. GFS caved last minute on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 LES making its way back to the western shoreline of Lake Michigan this morning. Not as intense though as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro is north, but it looks like it blows up a bunch of intense snow squall action sun afternoon for much of the MW. Could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 LES making its way back to the western shoreline of Lake Michigan this morning. Not as intense though as before. The lake effect sure has been "sharing the wealth" lately! Back and forth it goes. I got an awesome dumping of snow yesterday, then farther south around Holland and South Haven got it last night, and now it is back to you guys, and then back here tomorrow on SW flow. Fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 been pixie dusting most of the morning...bursts of low end -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro is north, but it looks like it blows up a bunch of intense snow squall action sun afternoon for much of the MW. Could be fun. yeah, both Friday/Sunday aren't likely to dump major amounts (although sunday has some moderate hit potential) but brief periods of non-zzzzz weather look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 My wife's car after yesterday's snowfall. We picked up about a foot of snow in 8 hours. The power of the SW flow lake enhanced snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Final Calls 1.9" Friday 2.5" Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Final Calls 1.9" Friday 2.5" Sunday sounds pretty good....Friday night system will be another "good luck measuring" event though... although sunday has some sleeper potential pending where the fronto sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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