Toronto4 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 No way this thing even touches Hwy 401. This will be a southern "event" if anything. I agree. Bloor St/Danforth Ave and points south to the lake have the best chance of scoring some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Random info alert... I was checking out the CIPS analogs for the Fri/Sat event based on the 00z NAM at 48 hours. Using the Mississippi Valley sector, 12 out of the top 15 are from 1996 or earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I would guess Oakville to Stoney Creek for the highest risk of >10 cm snowfall next 12-18h, but the circulation will be so weak that you can't rule out any shoreline incursions from Brighton to Rochester NY. The open water in Lake Huron may keep the feeble low alive a few extra hours then it will disappear once forced to compete with the circulation around the Maritimes low. Friday night continues to look like a quick 5-10 cm, downslope may not apply given the almost southerly vectors ahead of the front. Could be more further east of Toronto due to lake enhancement. I can recall one or two cases of downtown Toronto seeing lake effect from S or SSW winds, it's in play if wind speeds are not too strong. Sunday night continues to look like 10-15 cm potential, it's no powerhouse low but it does have an almost perfect track to max out over western Lake Ontario. Some lake enhancement could factor into that also. You guys are a tough crowd if this period falls short of satisfying, but any sort of energy upgrade and we're looking at epic rather than interesting. Agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wish I could lock the GFS in. Looks much better for here than the Euro has. 1-2" Friday night, and 3-4" Sunday. Looks great for the LAF crowd as well. 96hr precip through noon Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I would guess Oakville to Stoney Creek for the highest risk of >10 cm snowfall next 12-18h, but the circulation will be so weak that you can't rule out any shoreline incursions from Brighton to Rochester NY. The open water in Lake Huron may keep the feeble low alive a few extra hours then it will disappear once forced to compete with the circulation around the Maritimes low. Friday night continues to look like a quick 5-10 cm, downslope may not apply given the almost southerly vectors ahead of the front. Could be more further east of Toronto due to lake enhancement. I can recall one or two cases of downtown Toronto seeing lake effect from S or SSW winds, it's in play if wind speeds are not too strong. Sunday night continues to look like 10-15 cm potential, it's no powerhouse low but it does have an almost perfect track to max out over western Lake Ontario. Some lake enhancement could factor into that also. You guys are a tough crowd if this period falls short of satisfying, but any sort of energy upgrade and we're looking at epic rather than interesting. My call for the GTA: Tonight -> Trace-1 cm Friday night -> 2-4 cm Sunday night -> ~5 cm Total: 5-10cm Verdict: Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wish I could lock the GFS in. Looks much better for here than the Euro has. 1-2" Friday night, and 3-4" Sunday. Looks great for the LAF crowd as well. 96hr precip through noon Monday. I like that too! I guess I shouldn't be too greedy though after the 1 foot snowfall from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I would guess Oakville to Stoney Creek for the highest risk of >10 cm snowfall next 12-18h, but the circulation will be so weak that you can't rule out any shoreline incursions from Brighton to Rochester NY. The open water in Lake Huron may keep the feeble low alive a few extra hours then it will disappear once forced to compete with the circulation around the Maritimes low. Friday night continues to look like a quick 5-10 cm, downslope may not apply given the almost southerly vectors ahead of the front. Could be more further east of Toronto due to lake enhancement. I can recall one or two cases of downtown Toronto seeing lake effect from S or SSW winds, it's in play if wind speeds are not too strong. Sunday night continues to look like 10-15 cm potential, it's no powerhouse low but it does have an almost perfect track to max out over western Lake Ontario. Some lake enhancement could factor into that also. You guys are a tough crowd if this period falls short of satisfying, but any sort of energy upgrade and we're looking at epic rather than interesting. 1. Don't think Oakville is in the game. As the flow becomes strongly N/NNW expect the remnants of the mesolow to crash into the Niagara peninsula. 2. For event #2...southerly, or even SSW flow would help but right now the models aren't showing that. Has enough of a land component that the Escarpment is in play. Enough to keep my expectations <2". The Jan 8 2011 LES event started out as a SSW flow with Lk Erie connection. It does happen but very rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Pixie dust on and off for about the last 2-3 hours here from the mesolow. Snoozefest, bedtime. If anything recent Environment Canada forecast busts means getting a job there in a few years shouldn't be as hard as I thought. Considering starting a thread for Toronto posters, lots of YYZ related chatter these days. Thoughts, TO posters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Pixie dust on and off for about the last 2-3 hours here from the mesolow. Snoozefest, bedtime. If anything recent Environment Canada forecast busts means getting a job there in a few years shouldn't be as hard as I thought. Considering starting a thread for Toronto posters, lots of YYZ related chatter these days. Thoughts, TO posters? That's a great idea. I'm sure the non-locals would appreciate it too as our griping is of minimal interest to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That's a great idea. I'm sure the non-locals would appreciate it too as our griping is of minimal interest to them. The banter thread is an option... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The banter thread is an option... Well, there's also legit. forecasting/observational stuff that is pretty much localized to our corner of the world and that wouldn't qualify as "banter". The great Lake Ontario snow streamer debate being an eg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The banter thread is an option...Sure but there seems to be a lot of specific YYZ meteorological and historical discussion that will likely interest no one else. There are a lot of us within a 50 km radius. And we use different units I'm thinking similar to the Northern Ohio thread already in existence. I'll start something tomorrow sometime and we'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Radar is very impressive, lake ON is getting hammered, absolutely ripping +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Pixie dust on and off for about the last 2-3 hours here from the mesolow. Snoozefest, bedtime. If anything recent Environment Canada forecast busts means getting a job there in a few years shouldn't be as hard as I thought. Considering starting a thread for Toronto posters, lots of YYZ related chatter these days. Thoughts, TO posters? I'm all for a Toronto/southern Ontario thread similar to the northern Ohio thread. We can still post in the other threads about general, sub-forum wide issues like the cold and long range ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Looks like the streamer is beginning to rotate. Intense portion of it should crash into NY state shoreline. Weaker streamer should brush the G. Horseshoe. Will be interesting to see if this thing rotates all the way around. These mesos have a mind of their own sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibbs33 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Can anyone tell me what the Euro shows for KCMH for the clipper Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Can anyone tell me what the Euro shows for KCMH for the clipper Saturday? Drops almost 0.20" on central OH...a little more across eastern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Can anyone tell me what the Euro shows for KCMH for the clipper Saturday? oops that was the 12z run run above...sorry. 00z just starting to come in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibbs33 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 oops that was the 12z run run above...sorry. 00z just starting to come in... Not a problem....just wondering because my family reunion is Saturday and I'll need to know what I'll be dealing with driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Picked up exactly 1.0" of snow on 0.05" water. I am now at 28.8" for January and 45.7" on the season. DTW picked up 1.1" so they are at 28.9" for January and 45.6" for the season. With now just 0.8" to go to reach a brand new all-time January snowfall record...it looks like that record will be falling Friday!!! I see Toledo picked up 1.6", so they are now at 32.5" on the month. With the forecast the coming week, they will have absolutely OBLITERATED their all-time record for not only snowiest January but snowiest MONTH on record (I believe their records started in 1885). I can realistically see this being some 6-10" HIGHER than the previous all-time monthly record (30.9" in Jan 1978). We are seeing a historic winter in this region for sure!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Still major differences between the GFS and Euro. 0z Euro continues to be north and stronger with the Sunday clipper. 991mb over LSE at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Still major differences between the GFS and Euro. 0z Euro continues to be north and stronger with the Sunday clipper. 991mb over LSE at 12z Sunday. Then deepens to the mid 980s as it moves across MI. Looks like a small area of 850 mb winds of 70 kts in IL/IN at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Still major differences between the GFS and Euro. 0z Euro continues to be north and stronger with the Sunday clipper. 991mb over LSE at 12z Sunday. Euro has been horrendous this year. Always playing catch, last to the party it seems. GFS leading the way all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The GFS has been a disaster lately. Its medium range was so badly sampled tonight. I doubt the shorter ranges will be much better. Just not a pattern for it obviously. And you know this how? Stop trolling! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 The GFS has been a disaster lately. Its medium range was so badly sampled tonight. I doubt the shorter ranges will be much better. Just not a pattern for it obviously. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyways.. Someone wake me when this snooze fest of a pattern is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyways.. Someone wake me when this snooze fest of a pattern is over. I've actually sort of enjoyed this pattern as it seems to snow at least every other day...and it actually stays on the ground. Northern Indiana only averages 1-2 big storms (greater than 6") a winter season and usually the really big ones disappoint here (sleet!). But I could see how this pattern could get old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Still major differences between the GFS and Euro. 0z Euro continues to be north and stronger with the Sunday clipper. 991mb over LSE at 12z Sunday. I agree with the Euro, as this clipper approaches from the NW it will be following a strong baroclinic zone from the surface to H85, seems to me that it will likely strengthen as the low passes over MN, and even the Euro may not be low enough, I haven't looked at the H7 level yet. We could be looking at a event here in MN that we haven't seen in years, a full blown blizzard that could shut down most of this state. In some ways I hope I'm wrong and other ways I hope I'm right, as it has been quite some time since we have seen this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I've actually sort of enjoyed this pattern as it seems to snow at least every other day...and it actually stays on the ground. Northern Indiana only averages 1-2 big storms (greater than 6") a winter season and usually the really big ones disappoint here (sleet!). But I could see how this pattern could get old. It has had it's positives for sure. I don't even think 08-09 had this many days with snow falling and it is easily by far the longest stretch i have seen a inch+ stay on the ground since i moved here. But yeah i am ready for some real storm action. Clippers always disappoint around here atleast. Take Fridays clipper and cut the QPF amounts in half here and probably what will fall and thus another 1-2" type deal and 3 if luck kicks in. Can usually do this for all clippers that pass through here showing on models 36+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I've actually sort of enjoyed this pattern as it seems to snow at least every other day...and it actually stays on the ground. Northern Indiana only averages 1-2 big storms (greater than 6") a winter season and usually the really big ones disappoint here (sleet!). But I could see how this pattern could get old. The snow is great, other than for traveling, but I could do without it being this cold. It is amazing that there really looks like no break coming. I mean we had at least a glimpse of a potential pattern change with the MJO finally moving but now it looks like it will move right back into the COD and the teleconnections, some are favorable but the EPO is still decently negative and that doesn't look to change anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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