BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If the GFS is right, we might get some snow on Monday as well. If only this would hit you. You guys would get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Natasha Ramsahai and Adam Stiles of CityNews are pretty good too. As well as Chris Potter of CP24. BTW, Potter is not calling for any significant accumulations tonight, but mentioned that if the band moves onshore, areas from Toronto Island and points west towards Oakville would be favoured. Also, he's calling for a couple of inches for the Friday night-Saturday clipper and only flurries for the Sunday clipper (he says that most of the action will stay south). I'm not a fan of Potter. I think he plays it too conservative with a lot of events. I remember him naysaying the ice storm even during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If only this would hit you. You guys would get destroyed. Please no teasing :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I saw the heavy squall line developing around 830pm as I was about to head to Indianapolis. Tried to beat it home but it ended up hitting right as I was making my return trip south so I got to drive in it for 15 miles. It was by far the most intense and dangerous whiteout I've experienced. Couldn't see the car in front of me or even the road at times due to blowing snow. I'll post up a timelapse if anyone wants to see when I'm done editing it. What would have made it worse is if the roads would have been completely covered. I'd probably be stuck in a ditch right now. Downtown Indy as it was starting, moderate to heavy sn Whiteout conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm not a fan of Potter. I think he plays it too conservative with a lot of events. I remember him naysaying the ice storm even during the event. Agree with this. He often has the lowest forecast snow amounts amongst the TV mets in the GTA. Sometimes he's correct, but there have been other times in the past where he was too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I know that Natasha has a B.Sc in Atmospheric Science and is pretty educated. I met her and she's fantastic at what she does. I disagree with her choice of models but everyone has their preferences. She used to work at the The Weather Network back around 2000-2002 and for CBC in the latter part of the last decade before moving to CityNews in March 2011, replacing Michael Kuss (currently at CTV Vancouver). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If only this would hit you. You guys would get destroyed. Yeah. Ain't gonna happen unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is a pretty good video from Canada's Weather Network summarizing what could happen this weekend. I like how they drew attention to the fact that the winds could be strong. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/videos/gallery/all/video_gallery/strong-winds-snow-could-hamper-travel-in-ontario/sharevideo/3092559809001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 00z GFS looks a little quicker so far for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GFS is a bit south, faster, stronger and wetter through 75hrs with the Sunday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 00z GFS looks a little quicker so far for Sunday. It looks juiced up! Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Crazy photos Sidewinder! GFS through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Indy can't be denied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 HRRR seems to have a good handle on the band over Lk Ontario. It's not going to get anywhere near Toronto. Just a hideous forecast job by EC. True incompetence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Heaviest QPF/snow axis is south with up to 6" across central IL/LAF. 3-4" here with a 400mb deep DGZ so we're trading QPF for a much better growth zone where there is a smaller one closer to the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 HRRR seems to have a good handle on the band over Lk Ontario. It's not going to get anywhere near Toronto. Just a hideous forecast job by EC. True incompetence. Unfortunate really. They usually seem to have a decent handle on lake effect snows, suppose not this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 HRRR seems to have a good handle on the band over Lk Ontario. It's not going to get anywhere near Toronto. Just a hideous forecast job by EC. True incompetence. How can you say this when nothing has even happened yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Another thing, now the GFS is progging the precip under and just east of the sfc low. Looks funny. I can see it displaced E and ENE of it but under it looks weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 How can you say this when nothing has even happened yet? What are you talking about. The band has been sitting over the Lake for 4 hours. It has been drifting slightly to the east if anything. No short term guidance takes it onshore. Mesoanalysis shows the sfc low over MI continuing to fill, which is going to continue to promote a weak and variable flow. I know you're wilfully blind, that's your MO, but there's not a shred of evidence that suggests this will affect us. But keep hoping and wishing. I'll use science and reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 How can you say this when nothing has even happened yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Another thing, now the GFS is progging the precip under and just east of the sfc low. Looks funny. I can see it displaced E and ENE of it but under it looks weird I'm guessing the low is trailing behind the precip a bit, as the maps show precip that has accumulated in the previous 6hrs up to that time stamp. May have a little arc to the precip band just ahead of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 How can you say this when nothing has even happened yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What are you talking about. The band has been sitting over the Lake for 4 hours. It has been drifting slightly to the east if anything. No short term guidance takes it onshore. Mesoanalysis shows the sfc low over MI continuing to fill, which is going to continue to promote a weak and variable flow. I know you're wilfully blind, that's your MO, but there's not a shred of evidence that suggests this will affect us. But keep hoping and wishing. I'll use science and reason. The snow band seems to be getting quite close to Centre island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The snow band seems to be getting quite close to Centre island... EC just updated their forecast. Cut amounts to 2", locally (as in maybe an outer sandspit on one of the Toronto Islands). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 EC just updated their forecast. Cut amounts to 2", locally (as in maybe an outer sandspit on one of the Toronto Islands). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm actually beginning to wonder about mesolow potential around the GTA. Winds east of Pearson are N/NE Winds west and including Pearson are W Winds around Hamilton/Niagara are S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 EC just updated their forecast. Cut amounts to 2", locally (as in maybe an outer sandspit on one of the Toronto Islands). You'll love this Canuck. Tom Brown just called for 2-4", perhaps up to 6" in spots overnight. Says people should give themselves extra driving time in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 EC just updated their forecast. Cut amounts to 2", locally (as in maybe an outer sandspit on one of the Toronto Islands). LOL at the outer sandspit. But seriously, I'm right by the lakeshore near the Island Airport, so hopefully there will be some snow on the ground when I wake up tomorrow morning. It'll be interesting to see how far north the band penetrates in the city of Toronto, if it does at all. Does it go as far north as Bloor St? St. Clair? Eglinton? Hwy 401? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 LOL at the outer sandspit. But seriously, I'm right by the lakeshore near the Island Airport, so hopefully there will be some snow on the ground when I wake up tomorrow morning. It'll be interesting to see how far north the band penetrates in the city of Toronto, if it does at all. Does it go as far north as Bloor St? St. Clair? Eglinton? Hwy 401? No way this thing even touches Hwy 401. This will be a southern "event" if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I would guess Oakville to Stoney Creek for the highest risk of >10 cm snowfall next 12-18h, but the circulation will be so weak that you can't rule out any shoreline incursions from Brighton to Rochester NY. The open water in Lake Huron may keep the feeble low alive a few extra hours then it will disappear once forced to compete with the circulation around the Maritimes low. Friday night continues to look like a quick 5-10 cm, downslope may not apply given the almost southerly vectors ahead of the front. Could be more further east of Toronto due to lake enhancement. I can recall one or two cases of downtown Toronto seeing lake effect from S or SSW winds, it's in play if wind speeds are not too strong. Sunday night continues to look like 10-15 cm potential, it's no powerhouse low but it does have an almost perfect track to max out over western Lake Ontario. Some lake enhancement could factor into that also. You guys are a tough crowd if this period falls short of satisfying, but any sort of energy upgrade and we're looking at epic rather than interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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