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Atlantic Tropical Action 2014


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Ohh its a lemon

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

 

"near 0 percent"- so you're saying there's a chance! yesssss!

 

1. A surface trough located about 75 miles east of the east-central
coast of Florida is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Surface pressures are relatively high in the region
and significant development of this system is not expected as it
drifts slowly northward during the next day or so. After that time,
conditions will remain unfavorable for development as the
disturbance accelerates northeastward ahead of an upper-level
trough.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

 

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That blob east of Nicaragua is mildly interesting.  It would need to continue dropping south, closer to S. Nicaragua / N. Costa Rica, to have any chance of surviving with that shear.  Even then, it would most likely run the risk of moving inland.  Still, not much else to look at ATM. 

 

Just to follow up with this...

 

All that convection in the SW Caribbean did leave behind a mid-level circulation center, but in much too hostile an environment to possibly survive. 

 

post-378-0-23734500-1403202080_thumb.gif

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Ohh its a lemon

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

 

"near 0 percent"- so you're saying there's a chance! yesssss!

 

 

 

 

Yea, it has a relatively small window for development the next 12-24 hours, and the convective structure is rather meeger, but its the only game in town right now (and probably will be the only game for the next 5 days). Its still fun to watch how these convective complexes evolve over open waters... its a matter of if the mid-level circulation can work its way down to the surface and generate enough surface fluxes to maintain convective development.

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.MLB.N0Q.20140619.1820.0

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I just hope we get to the E storm.  Edouard is French for Ed, and was a good storm IMBY in 2008.

 

 

No idea where that NCEP probability comes from, only a couple of 12Z GEFS through 16 days had a closed 1004 mb or below low, not a single 18Z GEFS member had a 1004 mb or below tropical low, and even that whole week the GFS showed a TC developing in the Caribbean 6-8 days out, it was wrong.

 

It was colorful but useless last season as well.

 

The hybrid looking low East of the Carolinas in 8 days on the Euro is warm core at 850 mb, but I want to see more of that on future runs.

 

post-138-0-46692300-1403486912_thumb.gif

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Even if the shear can relax a bit down the road, we'll still have to contend with the much below normal

instability. This has probably been the driest June on record  so far for portions of the Tropical Atlantic

into the Caribbean.

 

 

bluewave,

 I believe that in addition to higher than normal shear, dryness is common with El Nino.

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Really? From what I remember 1997 was fairly active early w/ above average instability. The El Nino didn't shut things down until around Aug/Sept.

 

 I'm saying that I think dryness is common with El Nino in the deep tropics (more common than non-Nino) as opposed to saying it is always dry throughout the season.

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Really? From what I remember 1997 was fairly active early w/ above average instability. The El Nino didn't shut things down until around Aug/Sept.

 

Was instability much above average.  IIRC, all 4 storms, through Danny, were non-tropical in origin.  (I was living in Lafayette when the MCS that became Danny came through, very frequent/vivid lightning for July) and I don't know why I think this, but does El Nino favor ST development?

 

Maybe not, we have a 2 to 3C anomaly in 1/2, and not a hint of a non-tropical development.

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Ugh its only june give it time

I strongly disagree. Virtually every indicator that I've looked at is highly unfavorable for U.S. landfalls this year--the decline in the AMO, the long-term warming of the Indian Ocean (=reduced instability despite a more active ITCZ), drought over the Sahel (meaning a weaker CV season), clear signs of an east-based (though weaker-than-expected) developing Niño, record levels of shear, reduced Atlantic/MDR SSTA. Furthermore, the fact that the developing Niño will be more easterly rather than centrally based would tend to increase upper-level shear over the western Atlantic, and--correct me if I'm wrong--could, unlike in a west-based Niño, also lead to a weaker Bermuda High, meaning a persistent weakness off the East Coast, meaning anything that survives the atrociously sheared trek through the central Atlantic dead zone will get picked up and recurve. I expect lots of development outside the deep tropics at higher latitudes, mostly fish-spinners, but very little deep tropical activity. Seriously, if you're looking for action, watch the EPAC this year. (For what's worth, the 12Z ECMWF hints at TC genesis along a decaying frontal boundary off the FL east coast in five days. That will likely be the type of high-latitude fish that we'll see in the W Atlantic this season.)

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I strongly disagree. Virtually every indicator that I've looked at is highly unfavorable for U.S. landfalls this year--the decline in the AMO, the long-term warming of the Indian Ocean (=reduced instability despite a more active ITCZ), drought over the Sahel (meaning a weaker CV season), clear signs of an east-based (though weaker-than-expected) developing Niño, record levels of shear. Furthermore, the fact that the developing Niño will be more easterly rather than centrally based would tend to increase upper-level shear over the western Atlantic, and--correct me if I'm wrong--could, unlike in a west-based Niño, also lead to a weaker Bermuda High, meaning a persistent weakness off the East Coast, meaning anything that survives the atrociously sheared trek through the central Atlantic dead zone will get picked up and recurve. I expect lots of development outside the deep tropics at higher latitudes, mostly fish-spinners, but very little deep tropical activity. Seriously, if you're looking for action, watch the EPAC this year. (For what's worth, the 12Z ECMWF hints at TC genesis along a decaying frontal boundary off the FL east coast in five days. That will likely be the type of high-latitude fish that we'll see in the W Atlantic this season.)

 

Really? So august 24 there will be a trof parked of the SE waiting to sweep anything in site away. We cant even get a 2 week steering forecast correct. As I just posted in another wx forum the important thing to watch for in my view is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when". Talk to me mid Aug when the REAL season starts.

 

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Really? So august 24 there will be a trof parked of the SE waiting to sweep anything in site away. We cant even get a 2 week steering forecast correct. As I just posted in another wx forum the important thing to watch for in my view is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when". Talk to me mid Aug when the REAL season starts.

 

Assuming a Cape Verde hurricane can even develop/maintain itself in the hostile MDR environment this year.

 

This post is just one big wishcast and is scatterbrained all over the place.

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It's not gonna be an active Cape Verde season this year.  What we're going to have to be vigilant of is little spin ups off of frontal boundaries and MCS that work their way off the coast.  The 18z GFS and 12z Euro are showing something similar to this off the SE U.S. coast for this weekend.  

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In other news, the NHC is watching the SE Coast with a 20% in 5 days and while the models are developing something could something like a TS Beryl from 2012 be possible as its a very similar pattern except Late June instead of late May

 

Not quite... Beryl was a tropical transition case that transitioned to a tropical cyclone from an initial baroclinic cyclone. What the ECMWF and GFS are suggesting is a remnant low-level vortex that originates from a MCS that propagates offshore. In fact the GFS traces the vorticity back to the big blow up of convection that resulted in an MCS in the NW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062518/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

 

We have to watch though, because global models are known to spin up spurious vorticity that isn't realistic via the simplifed cummulus scheme modifying the heating profile of the atmosphere.

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To follow up on today's conversation... You would be surprised to find out how many TCs do not originate from features we consider "tropical" In fact, baroclinic pathways are quite common.

 

For example, the three strongest hurricanes of the 2005 hurricane season all had non-tropical originating disturbances with some baroclinicity (Katrina 2005, Rita 2005, Wilma 2005). It's shortsighted to think that just because the MDR might be facing higher than normal shear this year that we can't get a decent TC in the subtropics. 

 

Now I'm not arguing for an active hurricane season (I am firmly in the pessimistic camp), but "home brew" type disturbances often can be just and impressive as those famed Cape Verde TCs. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Now I'm not arguing for an active hurricane season (I am firmly in the pessimistic camp), but "home brew" type disturbances often can be just and impressive as those famed Cape Verde TCs.

 

We all know what Josh's opinion on those is.  :pimp:

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Yea lets predict no capeverde hurricanes in mid June. June TC's are rare and in all honest have no say in what the rest of the season might look like. I will say waters as of today across the mdr are quiet cool but in good faith should warm by mid aug. Major hurricanes can still occur during the worst of el ninos. Think positive :0)

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