Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[phil882]

13 years ago a weak bad looking TS spun up 80 miles S of Galveston. TS Allison, now retired remains the costliest TS affecting the US to date causing over 5 billion in damage and claiming 22 lives as well as 5 days of meandering around Metro Houston.

 

http://vimeo.com/65510993

 

Yep... and that's what the residents of Mexico are facing in the near future. Allison was such a problem because of its slow motion, and thats exactly what the remnants of Boris, 90L, and this low-level gyre circulation are going to do. This same system is over the Yucatan when the GFS truncates at 192 hours. With the mid-level ridge to its north, this complex is stuck for a while. 

[phil882]

We'll see what the diurnal max does tonight, but an interesting microwave pass none the less. 

 

[Superstorm93]

Down to 1004mbs with 30 knot winds.

If it can maintain some convection, then we'll have our first recon mission of the year.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche. Despite strong upper-level winds, some further development of this system is possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of eastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. Forecaster Blak

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[wxmx]

From the 0z models, only the Ukie had a good initialization (maybe even a tad north), the rest were too far south and weak. All models translate the weak disturbance WNW, scraping the coast to around Tuxpan, with the Ukie being a bit stronger and around Tampico. The 12z GFS has a much better initialization, with a strongish 850 vortex, moving WNW with landfall around Tuxpan. I expect the 12z models get a much better initialization, with a stronger vortex and LF around Tuxpan to Tampico. I would agree with that scenario, with a TD or weak TS and LF around the aforementioned area in around 48 hours.

[Ground Scouring]

From the 0z models, only the Ukie had a good initialization (maybe even a tad north), the rest were too far south and weak. All models translate the weak disturbance WNW, scraping the coast to around Tuxpan, with the Ukie being a bit stronger and around Tampico. The 12z GFS has a much better initialization, with a strongish 850 vortex, moving WNW with landfall around Tuxpan. I expect the 12z models get a much better initialization, with a stronger vortex and LF around Tuxpan to Tampico. I would agree with that scenario, with a TD or weak TS and LF around the aforementioned area in around 48 hours.

The GFS also continues to insist that, after 90L moves inland, a secondary vortex will develop over or near Belize (in the SW Caribbean Sea) in about five days. The low then moves NNE across western Cuba and southern FL in the long range. Several GEFS members also show this secondary development, yet no other reliable model shows something like this in the time frame suggested. Why is the GFS developing a phantom low?

[hurricaneman]

The GFS also continues to insist that, after 90L moves inland, a secondary vortex will develop over or near Belize (in the SW Caribbean Sea) in about five days. The low then moves NNE across western Cuba and southern FL in the long range. Several GEFS members also show this secondary development, yet no other reliable model shows something like this in the time frame suggested. Why is the GFS developing a phantom low?

What I seem to see with the GFS is that 90L moves inland while the trough around the Bahamas and Hispaniola moves west and 90L's energy gets transfered to the trough and forms a new low in the Gulf of Hundoras which IMO is a possibility since that trough does have some vorticity with it but the only fly in the ointment is that no other model predicts it like this

[wxmx]

The GFS also continues to insist that, after 90L moves inland, a secondary vortex will develop over or near Belize (in the SW Caribbean Sea) in about five days. The low then moves NNE across western Cuba and southern FL in the long range. Several GEFS members also show this secondary development, yet no other reliable model shows something like this in the time frame suggested. Why is the GFS developing a phantom low?

The 0z Euro also has it...it has been on and off with the Euro...and usually farther west...the 0z run threatens the N GoM. Let's see what the 12z run shows. I think the solution is plausible as long as the gyre keeps on going.

 

 

Back to 90L...looks like there's an elongated but closed  surface low...I deem it worthy of invest recon.  Looks like winds are close to TS force. 12z run has a stronger initialization as suspected, and treks it WNW to the Tuxpan area.

 

[phil882]

Wasn't recon suppose to fly down today? I definitely think its close to being a TD right now. Convection probably needs to be slightly better organized, but that's clearly a closed (albeit elongated) circulation on ASCAT with 30+ knot winds. 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wasn't recon suppose to fly down today? I definitely think its close to being a TD right now. Convection probably needs to be slightly better organized, but that's clearly a closed (albeit elongated) circulation on ASCAT with 30+ knot winds. 

Was rescheduled to tomorrow.

[icebreaker5221]

Wasn't recon suppose to fly down today? I definitely think its close to being a TD right now. Convection probably needs to be slightly better organized, but that's clearly a closed (albeit elongated) circulation on ASCAT with 30+ knot winds. 

 

It's even a closed circulation in the ECMWF analysis, which if anything has been late to the game more often than not lately.  90% sure this would be a TD by now if they had recon.

 

Edit: only thing that might prevent it from an upgrade could be the sustained deep convection criteria.  While there's plenty of sustained deep convection east of the CoC, the center itself is a little bare. 

[Mike.Ventrice]

Nice burst of convection just fired up over the low-level circulation. Might be a vortical hot tower but would need to confirm this... looking reasonable for a TD/storm classification today

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Nice burst of convection just fired up over the low-level circulation. Might be a vortical hot tower but would need to confirm this... looking reasonable for a TD/storm classification today

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1055 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that thearea of low pressure about 40 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico, hasbecome a little better defined this morning as it moves slowlywest-northwestward.  However, the associated thunderstorm activityis currently poorly organized.  A tropical depression could formbefore the low reaches the coast of eastern Mexico later today ortonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduledto investigate this system this afternoon. Whether a tropicaldepression forms or not, this disturbance could produce heavy rains,along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, overportions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next fewdays.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...70 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...70 percent.

[wxmx]

Actually, it looks like it won't make it to me. Looking at vis imagery, it looks awfully close to land and convection has been blown off to the east and it's currently a mostly naked swirl. Unless it turns hard to the right or stalls, it looks like it will make landfall today.

[BlizzardWarning]

Its clear from satelite images that the COC west of the convection, which is waning as the storm is being sheared.  The storm looks like its being crushed at this point.  80% is a giant stretch given that it will be on land this evening.  20% is a more realistic probability.

[LakeEffectKing]

The last 2 lines in the discussion are in error I believe....they qualify the chances as "medium" and yet they put the % chance at "70%" (ie cherry) which is a high percentage.

[Juliancolton]

Actually, it looks like it won't make it to me. Looking at vis imagery, it looks awfully close to land and convection has been blown off to the east and it's currently a mostly naked swirl. Unless it turns hard to the right or stalls, it looks like it will make landfall today.

The center is indeed very close and moving steadily westward. Maybe it has eight more hours over water if it's lucky... have to agree with your assessment.

 

[phil882]

An argument can be made that this has been at least a TD for about 24 hours now, so the NHC is just catching up. Convection has been pulsing, and I have seen more poorly organized TDs and TSs before (Gabrielle anyone?) If the storm doesn't move inland before this afternoon, recon will likely confirm.

[wxmx]

An argument can be made that this has been at least a TD for about 24 hours now, so the NHC is just catching up. Convection has been pulsing, and I have seen more poorly organized TDs and TSs before (Gabrielle anyone?) If the storm doesn't move inland before this afternoon, recon will likely confirm.

Yes, there's undoubtedly a vigorous closed surface low...it's just convection that has been undermined by strong shear it's whole lifetime. Shear has increased a tad from yesterday, so I don't think it will get enough organized convection soon.

[icebreaker5221]

Seems to be some steadily-falling pressures as that swirl approaches the coast. 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/SACV4.html

[wxmx]

And as it oftenly happens in this part of the GoM, it starts to move WSW...a wobble? maybe so, but now the low is doomed, LF is probably 3-4 hours away, if that.

[Juliancolton]

Vis imagery suggests the CoC has crossed the coast accompanied by what appears to be some orographically enhanced convection. That was fun, I suppose!

 

[icebreaker5221]

Seems to be some steadily-falling pressures as that swirl approaches the coast. 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/SACV4.html

 

Wow, pressure bottomed out at 1003 mb at Sacrifice Island,

and 1002 mb at Veracruz:http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MMVR/2014/06/06/DailyHistory.html

[Ground Scouring]

Vis imagery suggests the CoC has crossed the coast accompanied by what appears to be some orographically enhanced convection. That was fun, I suppose!

Ironically, the NHC is at its most optimistic stage at the exact moment LF has occurred.

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the

center of a well-defined low pressure system is located along the

coast of eastern Mexico near Vera Cruz. Associated shower activity

has been gradually increasing over the past few hours, and an Air

Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance

has reported surface winds of 30 to 35 mph to the northeast and

east of the center thus far. If thunderstorm activity persists near

the low center, a tropical depression could still form before the

system moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico later tonight and

tomorrow. Whether or not a tropical depression forms, this

disturbance will produce gusty winds and heavy rains, along with

life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of

southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Ground Scouring]

The 18Z GFS remains adamantly addicted to its SW Caribbean TC by the middle of day five and now shows a moderate TS (much stronger than the weak frontal wave on previous runs) striking south FL by the middle of day seven. The 12Z ECMWF is slower to develop (by day seven) but is also on board re: a secondary vortex developing near Belize, but because the system is slow to develop the shortwave trough bypasses the system, thereby allowing a westward track into the Yucatán and mainland MX. The key is that the ECMWF, like the GFS, is showing a stronger/more defined low than on preceding runs. At first I was skeptical, but now, overall, there is reasonably clear evidence that a TC will likely develop as the monsoonal trough is expected to remain over Central America in the time frame mentioned. I would place more emphasis on the ECMWF as to track, since the ECMWF has a far better track record than the GFS does in the medium range.

[hurricaneman]

There also seems to be a meso low off of the Carolina coast that may need to be monitored even if it does nothing

[Ground Scouring]

I think the Euro keeps pushing any organized development further away due to how

unusually stable the Atlantic Basin is right now. 

Maybe it's unusual to you, but it's not unusual to those of us (HM especially) who have been looking at the IO / climate factors and see that this is just what to expect when you have a feedback loop vis-à-vis the 1) warmer IO leading to 2) strengthened Hadley cells, which in turn lead to both a more active ITCZ, yet with decreased precipitation over the tropical Atlantic due to increased stability. Also, despite what others are saying, I personally think that the +AMO pattern has flipped or is in the process of doing so, especially since 2010. The sharp negative net change in SSTA configuration over the NW Atlantic is telling. I really wouldn't expect much from the Atlantic basin for the next 20+ years, which means that we could see a long-term period (likely two decades or longer) with very few landfalls or strong systems. Few, if any, people have been expecting this, but then neither have they expected to see the climate (ocean-atmosphere feedback) pattern we're in. Of course, we will still see a major Atlantic hurricane or two hitting land, but those will be unusual exceptions. (The EPAC and WPAC will likely be far more active than the Atlantic in the same period.) What seems "unusual" is in fact the new normal considering the climate epoch we're in.

[icebreaker5221]

Maybe it's unusual to you, but it's not unusual to those of us (HM especially) who have been looking at the IO / climate factors and see that this is just what to expect when you have a feedback loop vis-à-vis the 1) warmer IO leading to 2) strengthened Hadley cells, which in turn lead to both a more active ITCZ, yet with decreased precipitation over the tropical Atlantic due to increased stability. Also, despite what others are saying, I personally think that the +AMO pattern has flipped or is in the process of doing so, especially since 2010. The sharp negative net change in SSTA configuration over the NW Atlantic is telling. I really wouldn't expect much from the Atlantic basin for the next 20+ years, which means that we could see a long-term period (likely two decades or longer) with very few landfalls or strong systems. Few, if any, people have been expecting this, but then neither have they expected to see the climate (ocean-atmosphere feedback) pattern we're in. Of course, we will still see a major Atlantic hurricane or two hitting land, but those will be unusual exceptions. (The EPAC and WPAC will likely be far more active than the Atlantic in the same period.) What seems "unusual" is in fact the new normal considering the climate epoch we're in.

 

Even long-term +AMO periods have short-term stretches of -AMO.  I would probably give it at least a few more seasons before concluding that we've flipped to -AMO. 

 

Complicating matters is the fact that we really don't have a long enough record to know the variability associated with the length of long-term phases of the AMO (would a 1000 year data set give us 30 years +/- 3 or 30 years +/-15 per phase?)  However, relative to the data we have, it would be completely unprecedented if this +AMO only lasted 15 years (1995-2010 if the flip began in 2011). 

 

So yes, what you're saying is certainly a possibility, but IMO it's way to early to assume this will continue for decades to come.  I bet we see a few more very active seasons this decade, but only time will tell. 

 

[Ground Scouring]

Even long-term +AMO periods have short-term stretches of -AMO.  I would probably give it at least a few more seasons before concluding that we've flipped to -AMO. 

 

Complicating matters is the fact that we really don't have a long enough record to know the variability associated with the length of long-term phases of the AMO (would a 1000 year data set give us 30 years +/- 3 or 30 years +/-15 per phase?)  However, relative to the data we have, it would be completely unprecedented if this +AMO only lasted 15 years (1995-2010 if the flip began in 2011). 

I understand your point, but I don't think that anyone should assume that an event's being "unprecedented" makes it unlikely. Looking at other factors that affect the AMO, and comparing their relative weight in each documented +AMO cycle, could help determine whether the overall ocean-atmosphere configuration is currently on a trend incompatible with what we have seen in other +AMO periods. Many factors affect the AMO, and many factors affect seasonal intervariability re: how intense a period of high hurricane activity we see. What, for example, was the IO / SH state in each preceding +AMO cycle? What was the solar trend? What was the overall themohaline state, the NW Atlantic SSTA configuration, the PDO, etc.? How much weight should each factor be given? Furthermore, how reliable are the data we have? The margin of error could affect how "unusual" our current/postulated (downward) AMO trend seems to be.

[Hurr_Tracker13]

The latest GFS runs are very interesting. Definitely a strong strong TS making landfall.

[phil882]

The latest GFS runs are very interesting. Definitely a strong strong TS making landfall.

 

I would be very weary of the GFS forecast beyond 120 hours... its been essentially manhandled by the ECMWF in the medium range so far with this particular entity. Just look how off the GFS 48 hour forecast has been.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014060812/gfs_z850_vort_watl_comp48.html