Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 The Tuesday recon timing is interesting. IF this is ever going to do become a TD, it had better hurry up and do it because the model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing?. Youre absolutely right: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 262338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 . Youre absolutely right: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 262338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain Yes, but I just posted before you that I thought they were going to go up from 10% due to organizing/increased thunderstorms during just the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yes, but I just posted before you that I thought they were going to go up from 10% due to organizing/increased thunderstorms during just the last few hours. Delete that post so i dont have to reduce it to 50% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Delete that post so i dont have to reduce it to 50% correct Hehe. Satellite pics definitely suggest it has been organizing rather well over the last few hours. I would have thought based strictly on that a rise to near the 20-30% area for the chance within 48 hours of a TD (which really would be the chance within only 12 hours since land would prevent it afterward per models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 They just raised it to 30% fwiw: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Although this system is showing signs of development, the low is forecast to move southwestward inland over Nicaragua later today. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras during the day. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Up to 100%! Hanna! Just in the nick of time before supposedly moving inland. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 835 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook to describe increased organization of low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Updated: The small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation. As a result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a Special Advisory will be issued by 900 am EDT...1300 UTC. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 IMHO, I think it's a waste of government resources to classify a minimal storm that will be inland later today and completed dissipated by tomorrow. I think a general population wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a minimal tropical storm and a day of rain and wind anyway. Thankfully your opinion means zero in this matter and it has far more to do with properly classifying a tropical system as well as assisting in providing data for watches/warnings for our neighbors in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 IMHO, I think it's a waste of government resources to classify a minimal storm that will be inland later today and completely dissipated by tomorrow. I think a general population wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a minimal tropical storm and a day of rain and wind anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Clearly this is a tropical cyclone at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Honduras and Nicaragua are extremely susceptible to flash flooding and mudslides from even weak and slow-moving systems. The duration of a tropical cyclone is not part of the official definition, nor should it be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Clearly this is a tropical cyclone at this time. Indeed. 000WTNT34 KNHC 271303TCPAT4BULLETINTROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920141100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA......FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.5N 83.2WABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUAABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDERMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZASNICARAGUA.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUAA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHINTHE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WASLOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LATITUDE 14.5NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THEWEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECASTTRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THENORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THIS AFTERNOON.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALLOCCURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HANNA MOVES INLAND...AND IT ISEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND ON TUESDAY.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNINGAREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.RAINFALL...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALLAMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.$$FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 IMHO, I think it's a waste of government resources to classify a minimal storm that will be inland later today and completely dissipated by tomorrow. I think a general population wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a minimal tropical storm and a day of rain and wind anyway. scientific integrity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 New Invest 96L in the Gulf of Honduras and 93E S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific. The monsoonal trough certainly is active this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It also looks like the remnant circulation of Hannah is back out over the Caribbean. Not impressive from a convective perspective, but still has a circulation looking at first light visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It also looks like the remnant circulation of Hannah is back out over the Caribbean. Not impressive from a convective perspective, but still has a circulation looking at first light visible.I thought they declared Hannah dissipated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I thought they declared Hannah dissipated? It will be Hannah again if it gets upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It also looks like the remnant circulation of Hannah is back out over the Caribbean. Not impressive from a convective perspective, but still has a circulation looking at first light visible. Yes, the visible loop shows what appears to be a well-defined circulation near the island of Roatan, moving westward. It won't have much time to reorganize, though, before moving into Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Naked swirl NW of Roatan island. Shear is >20kts and increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 95L appears to be producing winds up to TS force... May see another weak system move out to sea if it can consolidate another LLC under the convection. Previous circulation was ejected earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Meanwhile in the Mediterranean sea...look at this! Raked Malta with 95-mph gusts earlier today and is headed toward the boot of Italy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Latest on the Med-cane: https://www.facebook.com/meteoweb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Mindblown. I have heard of sub-tropical cyclones in this basin but never hurricanes. It appears there have been a few rare analogs, SST's are very warm, some areas nearing the 26C benchmark for TC formation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical_cyclone#November_2011_.28Rolf.2F01M.29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical_cyclone#Known_occurrences_and_impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Even the Mediterranean is churning out better storms than the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Impressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Satellite time-lapse of the Med-cane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Well this is an interesting feature off Florida... maybe some sub-tropical characteristics developing as convection continues to fire over the surface vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 New RapidScat caught an interesting hybrid low in the middle of the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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