Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[wxmeddler]

Recon has found a broad closed low deep in the BoC with winds near/at TS strength and a minimum central pressure around 1005mb.

 Make that 1001mb and tight. 33kt W winds too. Question is now does it have the "sustained convection" criteria to support TD/ 40 mph TS?

[Max]

That wave east of the Lesser Antilles looks pretty decent. Some model support for maybe a weak low, what do the tropical folk think?

[wxmx]

 Make that 1001mb and tight. 33kt W winds too. Question is now does it have the "sustained convection" criteria to support TD/ 40 mph TS?

It would be nice to get it named, only Mitch '98 has been recorded as having a landfall in the W part of the Yucatan. Also, there's a patch of non contaminated 35+kts winds in the SE quad

[wxmx]

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 20:32Z

Agency: United States Air Force

Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305

Mission Purpose: Investigate eighth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 20

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 20:01:30Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°15'N 93°37'W (19.25N 93.6167W)

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 692m (2,270ft) at 925mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SSW (193°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 283° at 29kts (From the WNW at ~ 33.4mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SSW (193°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 768m (2,520ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 767m (2,516ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure

N. Fix Level: 925mb

O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

 

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) from the flight level center at 19:47:00Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

General Notes About Vortex Messages:

[Superstorm93]

NHC made the right call on this one. Pressures are down to 1000mb with winds near 34 knots, but there is nowhere near enough convective organization to classify the system as a cyclone. 

 

 

 

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well-
defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the
thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough
for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level
winds could become more conducive for further development by
tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical
cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical
cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with
a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm
warnings could need to be issued with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[phil882]

If I was a betting man, I'd say 93L has a > 50% chance to be declared a TC prior to landfall in the Yucatan. I'd also say its likely to have a second life in the Caribbean, as the GFS suggests (the ECMWF showed a similar solution at 00z, but the 12z run shows the remnant low-level vorticity staying too far poleward for redevelopment due to high vertical wind shear).

 

[BuffaloWeather]

If I was a betting man, I'd say 93L has a > 50% chance to be declared a TC prior to landfall in the Yucatan. I'd also say its likely to have a second life in the Caribbean, as the GFS suggests (the ECMWF showed a similar solution at 00z, but the 12z run shows the remnant low-level vorticity staying too far poleward for redevelopment due to high vertical wind shear).

 

 

Where is this thing projected to go? Any chance it hits the main land?

[Amped]

 

 

Still a lot of potential If a storm can stall near the Yucatan Channel. The wave splitting into two pieces really complicates the forecast though. 18z GFS is has a fairly deep system by 180hrs.

 

Edit: See 18z GEFS p006 for a lol solution.

[phil882]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update discussion on low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche

1. Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southern
Bay of Campeche have increased and become better organized during
the past hour or two. If the current development trend continues,
tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated later this evening
or overnight. Interests in Mexican state of Campeche and elsewhere
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system
as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued on short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[tmagan]

It is now a T.D.

[Superstorm93]

Not really thread worthy...for now

The cyclone should

weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night.

If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan

Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely

to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration

to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.

[phil882]

" The cyclone should weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner."

 

We'll see... They are right that dry air will be a problem in the latter part of the forecast, but if the vertical shear remains low (a possibility if TD#9 moves south of the NHC forecast track) than a GFS solution is certainly possible.

 

I'm pretty sure the NHC forecasters have Nate (2011) in the back in their minds as an analog, a storm that failed to intensify seemingly due to dry air intrusion. However, Nate (2011) moved very slowly in the Bay of Campeche and upwelled some extremely cool waters (< 24C) in the shallow thermocline in the Gulf of Mexico. TD#9 will not have the same problem if it stalls out over the Caribbean. We just saw with Gonzalo that a TC can rapidly intensify in a seemingly dry air environment if the vertical wind shear is low enough.

 

If you gave me the NHC forecast to bet on, I'd take the over intensity wise. 

[GaWx]

This season has really awoken. It isn't such a quiet season anymore thanks to October!

[phil882]

This season has really awoken. It isn't such a quiet season anymore thanks to October!

 

92L is also starting to get jealous... nice little cirrus plume developing as it keeps going in cyclonic loops around the non-tropical environmental cyclonic flow its embedded in.

 

[Hurriplane]

18z for the lols.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102118/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html

[Amped]

18z for the lols.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102118/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html

00z gfs certainly goes bonkers with the storm just like 18z. Probably should wait for the Euro to come on board before getting excited.

[Hvward]

HWRF gives Nine a good chance of redevelopment after it exits the Yucatan.  HWRF has been a little too bullish this year on a few storms but nonetheless, interesting to see the Gulf/Atlantic finally getting active.

 

[Guest Imperator]

Is the new GFS offline? It no longer appears along side the GFS at 0Z and 12Z in the 2D section?

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[Roger Smith]

Any chance that a TC could form directly from the enhanced cloud over the Yucatan Channel now, rather than waiting for TD 9 to arrive?

 

Unrelated, but contest entrants note, there are two more points available for your NOV-DEC forecast and the provisional scoring shows that you might want to issue your forecast despite that small reward. No rush, we still have ten days to look at it.

[Guest Imperator]

The GFS is back to no storm in the gulf. Its run to run continuity with these types of events has been horrible this year. Convective feedback or just in dire need of the upgrade going online?

[phil882]

The GFS is back to no storm in the gulf. Its run to run continuity with these types of events has been horrible this year. Convective feedback or just in dire need of the upgrade going online?

 

The main problem with the 12z GFS run for the systems prospects is that it takes TD#9 into Central America and its not far away enough from land to re-develop. That's quite a bit different from the ECMWF which just fails to redevelop the low-level circulation after meandering for several days in the Caribbean.

[wxmx]

The main problem with the 12z GFS run for the systems prospects is that it takes TD#9 into Central America and its not far away enough from land to re-develop. That's quite a bit different from the ECMWF which just fails to redevelop the low-level circulation after meandering for several days in the Caribbean.

Also the main low level energy is farther west in the 12z run, but the anticyclone is still east, so there's stronger shear, whereas the previous runs develop the cyclone under the favorable upper level environment of an anticyclone aloft.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

So much for 09L doing anything.  The entire Yucatan Channel area is a hot mess.

[Kory]

Yesterday made a record 9 years since a hurricane made landfall in Florida.  What an incredible stretch...in a rather active period in the Atlantic basin.    

[hurricaneman]

I wouldn't discount 94L{ex td9} yet as it seems to be showing signs of life

[andyhb]

Yesterday made a record 9 years since a hurricane made landfall in Florida.  What an incredible stretch...in a rather active period in the Atlantic basin.    

 

Aside from 2005 and 2008 as far as canes are concerned, not really.

[Absolute Humidity]

Yesterday made a record 9 years since a hurricane made landfall in Florida.  What an incredible stretch...in a rather active period in the Atlantic basin.

And two tropical landfalls in New Jersey in two consecutive seasons; go figure.

[hurricaneman]

recon sheduled to go into 94L tuesday

[GaWx]

recon sheduled to go into 94L tuesday

 

The Tuesday recon timing is interesting. IF this is ever going to do become a TD, it had better hurry up and do it because the model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing?

[GaWx]

The Tuesday recon timing is interesting. IF this is ever going to do become a TD, it had better hurry up and do it because the model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing?

This looks to be organizing pretty quickly. It seems the NHC chances for development will be raised at 8 PM. We'll see. I think it may only have 12 hours to get stronger due to too much land interaction afterward per models.