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Atlantic Tropical Action 2014


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UKMET


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.2N 56.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2014 36 17.2N 56.8W 1012 20
1200UTC 12.10.2014 48 17.0N 58.0W 1011 30
0000UTC 13.10.2014 60 16.9N 59.4W 1007 32
1200UTC 13.10.2014 72 17.3N 61.0W 1004 41
0000UTC 14.10.2014 84 18.0N 62.6W 1002 42
1200UTC 14.10.2014 96 19.3N 64.5W 1002 43
0000UTC 15.10.2014 108 21.1N 66.6W 996 53
1200UTC 15.10.2014 120 22.3N 69.8W 990 51
0000UTC 16.10.2014 132 23.0N 72.2W 991 51
1200UTC 16.10.2014 144 23.3N 73.5W 988 56
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90L is really the system to watch the next several days. Its going to have to thread the needle shear wise for the next couple of days, but its probably the only system that has a realistic (although still small) chance of impacting the US.

Highly unlikely if u asked me with all that trofiness of the southeast next week.

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Dry air and shear still affecting STD-07.   Visible loop show high racing off toward the north west, arc clouds to the south-southwest and two interesting little surface vortices rotating around in the overall circulation.

Dude, it's a subtropical cyclone.  This is normal.

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Impressive for October 2014

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week.
This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

 

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Dry air and shear still affecting STD-07.   Visible loop shows high clouds racing off toward the north west, arc clouds to the south-southwest and two interesting little surface vortices rotating around in the overall circulation.

 

 

Dude, it's a subtropical cyclone.  This is normal.

 

"Dude", one of the reasons for my original post was to point out some interesting features in the visible loop for STD-07 (especially since we've had such a boring period recently in the Atlantic).  Yes, in addition I was also noting these things as reasons for it not yet being fully tropical.  Sorry if for whatever reason it offended you.

 

As I expected yesterday; STD-07 has now become fully tropical despite still dealing with the dry air and shear, but thanks for your post, "Dude".

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL0720141100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014Tropical Storm Fay made the transition to a tropical cyclone around0600 UTC based on AMSU and other satellite data that arrived afterthe previous advisory was released.  An Air Force Reservereconnaissance aircraft confirmed this transition had occurred, whenit made a pass through the northwestern and northern quadrantsindicating that the radius of maximum wind had decreased to about 40n mi. A blend of satellite intensity estimates, flight-level surfacewind conversions, and reliable SFMR surface winds support increasingthe intensity to 60 kt. The latest center dropsonde data suggests acentral pressure of about 991 mb.The initial motion estimate is 355/14. Other than the centerredeveloping a little farther west and closer to the deepconvection, the overall track forecast and reasoning remainsunchanged form the previous advisory. Fay is expected to continue tomove northward and then northeastward around the western peripheryof a strong mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and thenrecurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase inforward speed by 36 hours. The official track forecast closelyfollows the multi-model consensus TVCN.The strength and direction of the current vertical wind shear isforecast to remain unchanged for the next 24 hours, so no change inintensity indicated during that time. By 36 hours, the shear isforecast to increase to more than 40 kt from the southwest, whichshould induce a weakening trend until the cyclone is absorbed by astrong cold front in about 48 hours.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  11/1500Z 27.9N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH 12H  12/0000Z 30.1N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH 24H  12/1200Z 33.0N  62.7W   60 KT  70 MPH 36H  13/0000Z 35.3N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH 48H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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 Invest 90L is looking pretty organized already. This could be declared a TD by tomorrow. October is suddenly not looking so boring with at least two systems to this point. Also, 91L to the east has a small chance. The CONUS shouldn't be threatened imo by any of these three regardless. This will be interesting for our contest.

 

 Edit: The 0Z Euro is again showing a sig. TC just east of the Bahamas by late week from 90L. The CONUS has little chance to be threatened by 90L imo as I don't see the ridging to its north needed to give it a westerly enough component toward the east coast. However, it is still too early to be ~100% confident.

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1) 90L: up to 90% now

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed.
Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system

since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

 

2) TS Fay

 

Fay gave Bermuda gusts over 90 mph! She is up to 70 mph sustained. It is possible Fay could officially sneak up to cat. 1 'cane status later today

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Gonzalo!

000WTNT33 KNHC 121745TCPAT3BULLETINTROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS......TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.4N 58.4WABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPEABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FORGUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMYTHE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* GUADELOUPE* DESIRADE* LES SAINTES* MARIE GALANTE* ST.MARTIN* ST. BARTHELEMY* ST.MAARTIN* SABA* ST. EUSTATIUS* BARBUDA* ANTIGUA* ANGUILLA* ST. KITTS* NEVIS* MONTSERRATA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* PUERTO RICO* VIEQUES* CULEBRA* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDSA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHINTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTOFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THEUNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONALMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. GONZALO ISMOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERALMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURNTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLYMONDAY MORNING.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THECOAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDEPREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTALRAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARDISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...AND EASTERN PUERTORICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDSTONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND AFFECTTHE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESESWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTCONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.$$FORECASTER STEWART
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The 18z Best Track has raised Fay to hurricane intensity...if anyone cares.

 

Not too surprising since the overall cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this morning. On its closest pass to Bermuda, Fay produced sustained winds of 61 mph with gusts up to 82 mph. Sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 109 mph were recorded at 140ft.

 

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Fay has just been officially designated the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic season, which makes sense in retrospect considering that Bermuda took a pretty significant blow. Gonzalo could end up as the 6th, which would mean we'd be closing in on a normal season in terms of # of H's.

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