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Atlantic Tropical Action 2014


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   Grasping at straws again? :weenie:  :weenie: :weenie:  :weenie:  

 

NYCVP,

 Whether or not Weatherguy is grasping, do you specialize in making hit and run trolling posts here in this thread without making a single contribution of note? This is your third one within the last few days. You're obnoxious. If you disagree, can't you do it without being rude? I've had my own wx forecasting related disagreements with Weatherguy, elsewhere, and have stated them along with my reasoning without just making hit and run rude comments

 

Here was one NYCVP made toward me a couple of days ago, a rude hit and run:

 

"FWIW, i think it would be wise to wait a while longer before you jump on board. Relying on the garbage portion of the GFS is less reliable than a blind man throwing darts. Another case of hobbyists having too much info that they don't know how to properly use."

 

Besides the rudeness, I still haven't "jumped on board" anything! Discussing the GFS runs in an otherwise pretty quiet thread doesn't mean jumping on board. So, this great poster was wrong.

 

Another:

 

"FWIW, I think discussing, speculating and evaluating the GFS beyond 240, even 180 hours is just utter nonsense and I agree, just entertaining."

 

 This is the extent of NYCVP's contribution in this thread at least of late. He's very obnoxious.

 

**Edited**

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NYCVP,

Whether or not Weatherguy is grasping, do you specialize in making hit and run trolling posts here in this thread without making a single contribution of note? This is your third one within the last few days. You're obnoxious. If you disagree, can't you do it without being rude? I've had my own wx forecasting related disagreements with Weatherguy, elsewhere, and have stated them along with my reasoning without just making hit and run rude comments

Here was one NYCVP made toward me a couple of days ago, a rude hit and run:

"FWIW, i think it would be wise to wait a while longer before you jump on board. Relying on the garbage portion of the GFS is less reliable than a blind man throwing darts. Another case of hobbyists having too much info that they don't know how to properly use."

Besides the rudeness, I still haven't "jumped on board" anything! Discussing the GFS runs in an otherwise pretty quiet thread doesn't mean jumping on board. So, this great poster was wrong.

Another:

"FWIW, I think discussing, speculating and evaluating the GFS beyond 240, even 180 hours is just utter nonsense and I agree, just entertaining."

This is the extent of NYCVP's contribution in this thread at least of late. He's very obnoxious.

**Edited**

And for the record as a very casual poster here I think you're one of the best on this board. Always articulate and supplying a boatload of evidence to support your arguments. Really like reading your posts.

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And for the record as a very casual poster here I think you're one of the best on this board. Always articulate and supplying a boatload of evidence to support your arguments. Really like reading your posts.

Much appreciated, Jag!

Lol, the 18z GFS has gone the way of the Euro and has a full-fledged TC in the E PAC as opposed to the SW Caribbean. GFS giving in after ~30 runs over the last 11 days showing SW Caribbean genesis by ~10/10?

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12z Euro is interesting, I hope a met can comment on the tropical nature of the Western Atlantic system.

Also has the tropical system the GFS has been touting the last week or so but heres the thing, could the GFS have gotten it wrong because it had the MJO come too fast into phases 8,1,2 and therefore had this possibly 9 to 10 days earlier than what the Euro shows as the Euro has it going into those phases 7 to 10 days from now

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Also has the tropical system the GFS has been touting the last week or so but heres the thing, could the GFS have gotten it wrong because it had the MJO come too fast into phases 8,1,2 and therefore had this possibly 9 to 10 days earlier than what the Euro shows as the Euro has it going into those phases 7 to 10 days from now

 

hurricaneman,

 I respectfully disagree about what I bolded. My look at the 12Z Euro doesn't show the same system that the GFS touted over and over in the W. Caribbean. The 12Z Euro still has the E Pac. TC, which moves westward below MX through day 10. It never moves to the Caribbean or Gulf. Anything it shows on day 10 in the W. Caribbean is very weak/not well organized and is something else imo.

 

 My assessment of the GFS after having ~30 runs over an 11 day period (~20 runs in a row toward the end) with TC genesis by 10/10 in the SW Caribbean (no time slippage whatsoever unlike the May/June debacle that slipped endlessly for many days) before a move northward toward the GoM: a fail and a bigger tease since the genesis didn't ever slip back in time over that 11 day period. This makes the third main mulitple run fail for the GFS on a false TC genesis in/near the Western Caribbean this season. The other was in mid-Sep. The Euro far outdid the GFS for all three of these failures since it had virtually none of its runs with these false geneses. Regarding this latest GFS failure, I saw only one Euro run with only a very weak low in the NW Caribbean that never got strong.

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the GFS has the low that is currently northeast of the lesser antilles moving slowly SW towards Puerto Rico and moves it to near Bermuda at day 16, thinking the GFS is on drugs again as I'm more likely to believe the Euro as it seems to have a much better handle on that system

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The whole Atlantic basin is very hostile.  Shear is running above normal in all zones, except along the East Coast. That will change as soon as troughing returns to the East Coast next week.  I don't see much as far as significant development...perhaps we get one more weak system?    

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0z Euro allows the western atlantic disturbance to become en-trained along the east coast cold front, very late recurve. The forecasted intensity is somewhat bullish. Euro featured Hurricane Edouard as a 1010mb low up until genesis.

 

 

 

Euro is quite similiar to the GFS in regards to this

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The former SW Caribbean prospect that GaWx and many others were following on the GFS, which croaked to the Euro a couple of days ago may still have a small hope.

 

Models, including the Euro and GFS have a couple of low level energies, both on each basin. The EPac energy consolidated a bit more yesterday, but lacked organized convection...the Atl energy wasn't that convectively strong either, but was a bit more active. This has continued today, and the EPac energy has weakened a bit. Also, the anticyclone is currently straddling Central America, but has retrograded a bit, towards the SW Caribbean, hence a bit better upper level conditions there, compared to the EPac. A strong bout of convection has been ongoing for most of the morning over the energy in the Atlantic, which may strengthen it. 

 

There may be some changes in the modeling, as we are approaching borderline conditions where the balance could tip one way or the other.  Currently development chances near the SW Caribbean are still low, but the next 24 hours may prove critical for prospect changes.

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Now up to 50% chance of sub-tropical/tropical development of the system NE of the Leewards. Whatever comes of it looks to head toward Bermuda although there are some indications a strong high could stop its northward movement in its tracks, inducing a westward jog. A similar movement is

forecast to occur in the W Pac with typhoon Vongfong.

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12z Euro sends a TS into South Florida from the East at 240 hours, forms from the area southeast of 99L. Quite long range but it's the Euro. UKMET has a similar storm on a similar path but doesn't run far enough to see the outcome.

 

ECMWF has that wave just barely missing recurvature twice - once at 72h and again at 168h, and also somehow keeps it in a low shear region in an otherwise hostile basin for 10 days straight.  Talk about threading the needle. 

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The fact that the all the major models have this missing recurvature is somethingas we usually don't have systems make it to Florida or farther west from the MDR but Kate in 1985 is an example of such a thing so if this does happen as modeled by the models then it wouldn't be without precidence

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ukm22014101500132lanttroplantprpfcstgent

 

12z UKMET made things somewhat interesting with the wave that's currently near 50W. The ECMWF appears to have this system around the same area, just less developed. Even the 00z parallel GFS has something going on...

 

The moderate CCKW passage along with a semi-favorable MJO may allow for the wave near 50W to become gradually better organized over the next 3-5 days as most of the global models show. There is an area of 850mb vort consolidating with this wave and convection in the area is plentiful, but I'm really not sold on anything outside of a loosely organized invest approaching the Lesser Antilles by Monday or so. If the wave begins to show signs of organization once 99L begins to lift north, then things may become more promising. While I know this isn't the most exciting thing ever, it's still better than the past month of "activity" 

 

vp200GFSanomKELVIN5S-5N.png

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