Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[icebreaker5221]

Pretty sure there is a TC out there in the North Atlantic. Has sustained convection for quite some time and it's somewhat covering the COC even though it is getting sheared.

 

I suppose a case could be made.  Models appear to be initializing it as marginally warm core as well.  Circulation centers definitely not aligned - par for the course 2014. 

 

 

[Juliancolton]

Maybe the NHC will throw us a bone and give us a post-season inclusion as a consolation prize.

 

[Wannabehippie]

I suppose a case could be made.  Models appear to be initializing it as marginally warm core as well.  Circulation centers definitely not aligned - par for the course 2014. 

 

 

GOES173020142749GYNH2.jpg

Maybe a sub-tropical low?

[GaWx]

For the record and entertainment:

1) The 0Z GFS had nada just like yesterday's 18Z.

2) The 6Z GFS had a weak low form in the SW Caribbean 10/10 and then a piece of that energy quickly moved to FL 10/14 (weak low) while leaving the other piece in the NW Caribbean for the rest of the run (another weak low).

3) The 12Z GFS has a low form ~10/11 in the SW Caribbean that becomes a hurricane ~10/14 and only moves very slowly NW to just south of western Cuba 10/17 (end of run). So, compared to the Sunday GFS runs that showed something, the TC on this run is a good 4-6 days behind on movement (not genesis) based on it still being in the NW Caribbean on 10/17. This among other things is a reason to give very low credibility to this run.

 Bottom line: I continue to take these GFS runs with a gigantic grain of salt for obvious reasons including no Euro support and timing delays in the modeled movement. If some runs still show something, say, about 4-5 days from now, I'd take then a little more seriously, especially if the Euro changes and gives some support. However, the smart money is still very likely on these being more phantom storm runs.

 

 

Following up, today's 0Z/6Z/12Z GFS and 0Z/12Z Euro all essentially had nada. However, for entertainment/record keeping, the 18Z of the newly designated Crazy Uncle is back to a 10/10 genesis of a TC in the SW Caribbean. This time, it hauls it off much more quickly, further west vs. prior runs to just north of the tip of the Yucatan on 10/15, and then accelerates it NNEward as a TS to a hit on the FL Big Bend early on 10/16 at 996 mb. This is then followed by it rocketing up the eastern seaboard 10/16-7. All fwiw, especially considering inconsistency on genesis.

[GaWx]

Following up, today's 0Z/6Z/12Z GFS and 0Z/12Z Euro all essentially had nada. However, for entertainment/record keeping, the 18Z of the newly designated Crazy Uncle is back to a 10/10 genesis of a TC in the SW Caribbean. This time, it hauls it off much more quickly, further west vs. prior runs to just north of the tip of the Yucatan on 10/15, and then accelerates it NNEward as a TS to a hit on the FL Big Bend early on 10/16 at 996 mb. This is then followed by it rocketing up the eastern seaboard 10/16-7. All fwiw, especially considering inconsistency on genesis.

 

 It is getting a little more interesting today. Today's 12Z GFS is the 4th in a row showing a TC genesis ~10/10 in the SW Caribbean (also, similar timing vs. those runs from five days back fwiw...i.e., it hasn't slipped back) and impacting somewhere within the central to NE Gulf coast  10/16 before rocketing NNE to the NE US on 10/17. This is quite consistent timing. Although this is still in the "for mainly entertainment" category, that assessment could start to change pretty signficantly in my mind if, say, the GFS runs on Sunday continue to show ~10/10 SW Caribbean genesis as well as a US Gulf hit ~10/16 and especially if the Euro starts supporting this. We'll see.

 

Edit: MJO is projected to remain within the circle per the Euro ensemble mean. That is pretty much a neutral indicator per Oct. genesis stats since 1995 (~10% chance for development on any single day, which means ~50% chance for genesis over about a six day period)

[thewxmann]

 It is getting a little more interesting today. Today's 12Z GFS is the 4th in a row showing a TC genesis ~10/10 in the SW Caribbean (also, similar timing vs. those runs from five days back fwiw...i.e., it hasn't slipped back) and impacting somewhere within the central to NE Gulf coast  10/16 before rocketing NNE to the NE US on 10/17. This is quite consistent timing. Although this is still in the for mainly entertainment category, that assessment could start to change pretty signficantly in my mind if, say, the GFS runs on Sunday continue to show ~10/10 SW Caribbean genesis as well as a US Gulf hit ~10/16 and especially if the Euro starts supporting this. We'll see.

 

If anything happens in the SW Caribbean for the rest of this year, I will eat my shoe.

[Guest Imperator]

If anything happens in the SW Caribbean for the rest of this year, I will eat my shoe.

 

FWIW, I think discussing, speculating and evaluating the GFS beyond 240, even 180 hours is just utter nonsense and I agree, just entertaining.

[GaWx]

FWIW, I think discussing, speculating and evaluating the GFS beyond 240, even 180 hours is just utter nonsense and I agree, just entertaining.

 

 We agree this is just entertainment for now as I stated. However, keep in mind that the forecasted genesis day (~10/10) on many runs since last Sunday and on the last four runs is now only ~168 hours away. If this Sunday's runs of the GFS were to continue to consistently have ~10/10 genesis, then we're suddenly within only 120 hours. Getting within 120 hours for projected genesis would be of significance imo, especially if the Euro starts to go that way.

 With a very quiet tropics right now and little in the way of tropical activity to even discuss, I obviously see no reason why these GFS runs shouldn't be mentioned and discussed in this otherwise very quiet thread as long as the usual caveat of "mainly for entertainment" is noted. Besides entertainment, the reason I post them is to look for consistency from run to run and day to day. These posts help to provide a record so I or others can look back if they want. Regardless of the overall quality of a model, I think it is important to look for consistency to help determine if there is a realistic chance that the blind and crazy uncle will finally find its nut. This is especially the case because it is predicting genesis in the climo favored W Caribbean and the MJO is not in an unfavorable phase for Oct. like 6-8.

 

Edit: Also, keep in mind that the Euro has tended to be a bit slack on genesis at times. So, while the GFS has, indeed, grossly overdone geneses, the Euro has underdone and even the GFS occasionally has found its nut.

[LouWX]

This reminds me a lot of early June ... when the GFS and its ensemble wanted to bring a TC out of the W Caribbean into the Gulf and it never materialized. ECMWF and its ensemble was never on board.

[GaWx]

Fwiw (entertainment): 18Z GFS is 5th GFS run in a row with 10/10 W Caribbean genesis but it moves up about a day sooner just missing SE FL on 10/15 and stays offshore 10/16 off the NE.

[hurricaneman]

If this consistancy in the GFS continues on into next week and not to mention the GEM, NAVGEM and FIM models showing something with the GEM being the weakest near the Yucatan Channel so people anywhere from Cuba, Yucatan, Gulf Coast, Florida to up the East Coast should monitor the models and see if genesis happens and the path of any possible storm

[andyhb]

If this consistancy in the GFS continues on into next week and not to mention the GEM, NAVGEM and FIM models showing something with the GEM being the weakest near the Yucatan Channel so people anywhere from Cuba, Yucatan, Gulf Coast, Florida to up the East Coast should monitor the models and see if genesis happens and the path of any possible storm

 

These cones of uncertainty that you come up with on virtually any potential storm are ridiculous.

[hurricaneman]

These cones of uncertainty that you come up with on virtually any potential storm are ridiculous.

Just going off of long range models, I'm going to stop doing that until a system develops a low as I don't mean to rock the boat

 

PS: The 0zGFS starts showing development of some kind or at least lowering pressures around 108hrs, closes low off at 138hrs

The 18zNAVGEM shows lowering pressures around 72hrs and develops a low at 108hrs

The 12zEuro shows lowering pressures at 120hrs but never closes the low off

The 12zGEM doesnt close off a low until 240hrs around the Yucatan Channel

[Kory]

Been burned too many times this year by various models showing lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean only to end up being EPAC bound.

[GaWx]

This reminds me a lot of early June ... when the GFS and its ensemble wanted to bring a TC out of the W Caribbean into the Gulf and it never materialized. ECMWF and its ensemble was never on board.

 

I remember the GFS was horrible in June with repeatedly developing that one TC that never materialized. Also, in Sept. it kept hitting the NC to NE Gulf coast around 9/20-2..at one point 9 of 10 runs (I just looked back..that's one of the reasons I like to post about it when it shows consistency) were doing somthing similar from something developing near the Yucatan. However, it will find its nut at some point...probably when you least expect it.

[hurricaneman]

I remember the GFS was horrible in June with repeatedly developing that one TC that never materialized. However, it will find its nut at some point...probably when you least expect it.

Honestly I hope this isn't the nut that is found but I do believe the GFS might be overdoing it because the shear is quite strong where the GFS has this developing

[GaWx]

Honestly I hope this isn't the nut that is found but I do believe the GFS might be overdoing it because the shear is quite strong where the GFS has this developing

 

 Actually, looking at the last several GFS runs' projected shear maps fwiw, they're showing the shear dropping to under 10 knots by Monday in the SW Caribbean and then they show the under 10 knot shear following along with the TC as it heads NNW and strenthens. However, the GFS shear forecast could be wrong, of course.

[Eyewall2005]

GFS continues bullish on TC in Caribbean...

[GaWx]

Fwiw (entertainment): 18Z GFS is 5th GFS run in a row with 10/10 W Caribbean genesis but it moves up about a day sooner just missing SE FL on 10/15 and stays offshore 10/16 off the NE.

 

 New tally still mainly for entertainment for now: Including the just run 0Z Sunday GFS, a whopping 10 GFS runs in a row have shown TC genesis in the SW Caribbean ~10/10. Actually, the last couple (at least) have shown genesis of the very weak surface low closer to 10/8-9. So, that would be only 3-4 days out. Looking back at my posts, there have been a whopping 19+ runs since 9 days ago showing something similar with largely similar timing. So, you heard that right...a run from Fri 9/26 actually had a SW Caribbean genesis ~10/10 with a strengthening TC just E of Honduras on 10/12 on its 384 hour map, very similar to what the last 10 runs have shown! This lack of slippage is unlike the June horrible debacle and somewhat different from the ~9/20-2 false TC Gulf hit from 9 of 10 runs. Also, this is a more climo favored time for SW Caribbean development than just about any other time. Furthermore, the Euro ens. MJO forecast isn't unfavorable (it is neutral). The discussion of these runs might soon move out of the just for entertainment/record keeping category soon if this keeps up for a few more runs and especially if the Euro were to give a little support like it did on yesterday's 0Z run.

 

 Specifics of last five GFS runs fwiw:

- 0Z 10/4: hits FL Big Bend 10/18 and then well off NC 10/19.

- 6Z 10/4: hits near Tampa late 10/15 as TS and then skims just offshore GA/SC/NC on 10/16

- 12Z 10/4: hits SW FL early 10/15 as strong TS/weak 'cane, goes bit offshore SE, but then curls back in to skim NE coast 10/16

- 18Z 10/4: hits SW FL very late 10/15 as TS, goes offshore E/C FL, and then hooks right/stays well offshore rest of US E coast 10/16

- 0Z 10/5: hits SW FL early 10/15 as strong TS/weak 'cane, comes out but stays along NE FL/GA coasts late 10/15, and then moves NNE somewhat inland Carolinas northward to NE 10/16

[28storms]

GFS did this to us for 3+ weeks back in May/June. GFS simply has a bias to lower pressures in this part of the world during the early and late parts of every season. NAVGEM is in the same boat, and is an inferior model anyway. Until these projected lows are within 120 hours, we see evidence of something organizing over the Gulf/Caribbean (not Central America, EPAC), and other models like the Euro jump on it, don't buy it. You know it's a stretch when the Canadian doesn't have at least one hurricane in the area over the next 7 days. 

[GaWx]

GFS did this to us for 3+ weeks back in May/June. GFS simply has a bias to lower pressures in this part of the world during the early and late parts of every season. NAVGEM is in the same boat, and is an inferior model anyway. Until these projected lows are within 120 hours, we see evidence of something organizing over the Gulf/Caribbean (not Central America, EPAC), and other models like the Euro jump on it, don't buy it. You know it's a stretch when the Canadian doesn't have at least one hurricane in the area over the next 7 days. 

 

 Yes, indeed, the GFS was dreadful in May/June and this may end up to be a repeat. However and fwiw, one big difference is that there hasn't yet been any time slippage in the nine days this has been modeled. Time slippage was horrible in May/June.

 

0Z Euro: no support for the GFS.

[hurricaneman]

The NHC isn't buying what the GFS is selling so either the %s go up in future outlooks or the GFS cant even get a 72hr outlook right which would mean its no better than the GEM model which is embarrassing as the GFS was pretty good in 2012 but after the 2013 upgrade it has become a comedy of phantom storms{Not to the degree of the GEM} but to the point still where its almost unreliable

[GaWx]

 Still for mainly entertainment though maybe not for too much longer, especially if the Euro starts giving consistent support, the 12Z GFS is now the 12th GFS run in a row and the 21st+ over the last nine days showing TC genesis in the SW Caribbean by ~10/10:

 

6Z 10/5: hits FL Big Bend early on 10/15 as ~cat 1 'cane (986 mb) followed by a NNE move just inland the coast up to the NE US 10/16.

12Z 10/5: hits FL Bid Bend AM of 10/16 as ~cat 1 'cane (988 mb) followed by a big slowdown and loop back SEward to the Bahamas 10/19 followed by a NE turn out to sea. Obviously, the big slowdown/looping looks very suspect based on all of the GFS runs of recent days as well as climo but the run til it hits the Big Bend is consistent with 10/15-6 FL west coast hits on many GFS runs in recent days.

[GaWx]

FWIW, i think it would be wise to wait a while longer before you jump on board. Relying on the garbage portion of the GFS is less reliable than a blind man throwing darts. Another case of hobbyists having too much info that they don't know how to properly use.

 

 1) Is what I bolded of yours a direct reference to me? Let me know. If so, this needs to be discussed further.

 2) I'm not sure about the reason for your 2nd post like this. I'm still not yet "jumping on board" as you can see if you read my posts carefully (still mainly for entertainment as I keep posting), especially considering only one Euro run with just very modest support.

 3) Besides entertainment value, these posts allow for a record to be looked back at as regards whether the GFS flops again in this part of the basin like it did in May/June and in Sept. or it finally finds its nut.

 4) Other than this, there is ~zero happening in the Atlantic basin now or in the forecast. So, the thread is otherwise very quiet. Also, this is the only thread to post this at this BB on a nonregional basis.

 5)  The modeled genesis is now within 96-120 hours or so. So, the genesis, itself, is now well ahead of the garbage portion of this admittedly unreliable model in general.

 6) The W Caribbean is about the most favored area in early to mid Oct. in the entire basin climowise. Also, early to mid Oct. is about the most favored time period for W. Caribbean genesis.

[Kory]

Can we petition Dr. Louis Uccellini to fix the GFS? At this point, it has become a complete joke of a model.

[Superstorm93]

Can we petition Dr. Louis Uccellini to fix the GFS? At this point, it has become a complete joke of a model.

There's a massive upgrade scheduled in a few months if I'm not mistaken. Resolution will be increased to 15km and the parallel has been showing less signs of bogus cyclones. Interesting to note that the parallel also did not show development when the OP GFS was going crazy in the Caribbean during June.

[GaWx]

There's a massive upgrade scheduled in a few months if I'm not mistaken. Resolution will be increased to 15km and the parallel has been showing signs of less bogus cyclones. Interesting to note that the parallel also did not show development when the OP GFS was going crazy in the Caribbean during June.

 

What has the parallel been showing as compared to the op. GFS  for the W Caribbean in recent days? Similar, much less, nothing?

[Superstorm93]

What has the parallel been showing as compared to the op. GFS  for the W Caribbean in recent days? Similar, much less, nothing?

 

Only have it to 180 hours, but the 00z was similar to the operational. 

 

[wxmeddler]

There is a moderate CCKW moving into the W Carib region in the next week or so. MJO isn't quite in the greatest place but it's not terrible.

[GaWx]

Today's 12Z Euro still shows no support for the GFS as it has basically nada for the W. Caribbean. It had only one very weak low on one run. Otherwise, it has had nada. Instead, it has been favoring the EPAC for genesis.