Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 If anything happens in the SW Caribbean for the rest of this year, I will eat my shoe. FWIW, I think discussing, speculating and evaluating the GFS beyond 240, even 180 hours is just utter nonsense and I agree, just entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 FWIW, I think discussing, speculating and evaluating the GFS beyond 240, even 180 hours is just utter nonsense and I agree, just entertaining. We agree this is just entertainment for now as I stated. However, keep in mind that the forecasted genesis day (~10/10) on many runs since last Sunday and on the last four runs is now only ~168 hours away. If this Sunday's runs of the GFS were to continue to consistently have ~10/10 genesis, then we're suddenly within only 120 hours. Getting within 120 hours for projected genesis would be of significance imo, especially if the Euro starts to go that way. With a very quiet tropics right now and little in the way of tropical activity to even discuss, I obviously see no reason why these GFS runs shouldn't be mentioned and discussed in this otherwise very quiet thread as long as the usual caveat of "mainly for entertainment" is noted. Besides entertainment, the reason I post them is to look for consistency from run to run and day to day. These posts help to provide a record so I or others can look back if they want. Regardless of the overall quality of a model, I think it is important to look for consistency to help determine if there is a realistic chance that the blind and crazy uncle will finally find its nut. This is especially the case because it is predicting genesis in the climo favored W Caribbean and the MJO is not in an unfavorable phase for Oct. like 6-8. Edit: Also, keep in mind that the Euro has tended to be a bit slack on genesis at times. So, while the GFS has, indeed, grossly overdone geneses, the Euro has underdone and even the GFS occasionally has found its nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 This reminds me a lot of early June ... when the GFS and its ensemble wanted to bring a TC out of the W Caribbean into the Gulf and it never materialized. ECMWF and its ensemble was never on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Fwiw (entertainment): 18Z GFS is 5th GFS run in a row with 10/10 W Caribbean genesis but it moves up about a day sooner just missing SE FL on 10/15 and stays offshore 10/16 off the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 If this consistancy in the GFS continues on into next week and not to mention the GEM, NAVGEM and FIM models showing something with the GEM being the weakest near the Yucatan Channel so people anywhere from Cuba, Yucatan, Gulf Coast, Florida to up the East Coast should monitor the models and see if genesis happens and the path of any possible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 If this consistancy in the GFS continues on into next week and not to mention the GEM, NAVGEM and FIM models showing something with the GEM being the weakest near the Yucatan Channel so people anywhere from Cuba, Yucatan, Gulf Coast, Florida to up the East Coast should monitor the models and see if genesis happens and the path of any possible storm These cones of uncertainty that you come up with on virtually any potential storm are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 These cones of uncertainty that you come up with on virtually any potential storm are ridiculous. Just going off of long range models, I'm going to stop doing that until a system develops a low as I don't mean to rock the boat PS: The 0zGFS starts showing development of some kind or at least lowering pressures around 108hrs, closes low off at 138hrs The 18zNAVGEM shows lowering pressures around 72hrs and develops a low at 108hrs The 12zEuro shows lowering pressures at 120hrs but never closes the low off The 12zGEM doesnt close off a low until 240hrs around the Yucatan Channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Been burned too many times this year by various models showing lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean only to end up being EPAC bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 This reminds me a lot of early June ... when the GFS and its ensemble wanted to bring a TC out of the W Caribbean into the Gulf and it never materialized. ECMWF and its ensemble was never on board. I remember the GFS was horrible in June with repeatedly developing that one TC that never materialized. Also, in Sept. it kept hitting the NC to NE Gulf coast around 9/20-2..at one point 9 of 10 runs (I just looked back..that's one of the reasons I like to post about it when it shows consistency) were doing somthing similar from something developing near the Yucatan. However, it will find its nut at some point...probably when you least expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 5, 2014 Author Share Posted October 5, 2014 I remember the GFS was horrible in June with repeatedly developing that one TC that never materialized. However, it will find its nut at some point...probably when you least expect it. Honestly I hope this isn't the nut that is found but I do believe the GFS might be overdoing it because the shear is quite strong where the GFS has this developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Honestly I hope this isn't the nut that is found but I do believe the GFS might be overdoing it because the shear is quite strong where the GFS has this developing Actually, looking at the last several GFS runs' projected shear maps fwiw, they're showing the shear dropping to under 10 knots by Monday in the SW Caribbean and then they show the under 10 knot shear following along with the TC as it heads NNW and strenthens. However, the GFS shear forecast could be wrong, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 GFS continues bullish on TC in Caribbean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Fwiw (entertainment): 18Z GFS is 5th GFS run in a row with 10/10 W Caribbean genesis but it moves up about a day sooner just missing SE FL on 10/15 and stays offshore 10/16 off the NE. New tally still mainly for entertainment for now: Including the just run 0Z Sunday GFS, a whopping 10 GFS runs in a row have shown TC genesis in the SW Caribbean ~10/10. Actually, the last couple (at least) have shown genesis of the very weak surface low closer to 10/8-9. So, that would be only 3-4 days out. Looking back at my posts, there have been a whopping 19+ runs since 9 days ago showing something similar with largely similar timing. So, you heard that right...a run from Fri 9/26 actually had a SW Caribbean genesis ~10/10 with a strengthening TC just E of Honduras on 10/12 on its 384 hour map, very similar to what the last 10 runs have shown! This lack of slippage is unlike the June horrible debacle and somewhat different from the ~9/20-2 false TC Gulf hit from 9 of 10 runs. Also, this is a more climo favored time for SW Caribbean development than just about any other time. Furthermore, the Euro ens. MJO forecast isn't unfavorable (it is neutral). The discussion of these runs might soon move out of the just for entertainment/record keeping category soon if this keeps up for a few more runs and especially if the Euro were to give a little support like it did on yesterday's 0Z run. Specifics of last five GFS runs fwiw: - 0Z 10/4: hits FL Big Bend 10/18 and then well off NC 10/19. - 6Z 10/4: hits near Tampa late 10/15 as TS and then skims just offshore GA/SC/NC on 10/16 - 12Z 10/4: hits SW FL early 10/15 as strong TS/weak 'cane, goes bit offshore SE, but then curls back in to skim NE coast 10/16 - 18Z 10/4: hits SW FL very late 10/15 as TS, goes offshore E/C FL, and then hooks right/stays well offshore rest of US E coast 10/16 - 0Z 10/5: hits SW FL early 10/15 as strong TS/weak 'cane, comes out but stays along NE FL/GA coasts late 10/15, and then moves NNE somewhat inland Carolinas northward to NE 10/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 GFS did this to us for 3+ weeks back in May/June. GFS simply has a bias to lower pressures in this part of the world during the early and late parts of every season. NAVGEM is in the same boat, and is an inferior model anyway. Until these projected lows are within 120 hours, we see evidence of something organizing over the Gulf/Caribbean (not Central America, EPAC), and other models like the Euro jump on it, don't buy it. You know it's a stretch when the Canadian doesn't have at least one hurricane in the area over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 GFS did this to us for 3+ weeks back in May/June. GFS simply has a bias to lower pressures in this part of the world during the early and late parts of every season. NAVGEM is in the same boat, and is an inferior model anyway. Until these projected lows are within 120 hours, we see evidence of something organizing over the Gulf/Caribbean (not Central America, EPAC), and other models like the Euro jump on it, don't buy it. You know it's a stretch when the Canadian doesn't have at least one hurricane in the area over the next 7 days. Yes, indeed, the GFS was dreadful in May/June and this may end up to be a repeat. However and fwiw, one big difference is that there hasn't yet been any time slippage in the nine days this has been modeled. Time slippage was horrible in May/June. 0Z Euro: no support for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 5, 2014 Author Share Posted October 5, 2014 The NHC isn't buying what the GFS is selling so either the %s go up in future outlooks or the GFS cant even get a 72hr outlook right which would mean its no better than the GEM model which is embarrassing as the GFS was pretty good in 2012 but after the 2013 upgrade it has become a comedy of phantom storms{Not to the degree of the GEM} but to the point still where its almost unreliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Still for mainly entertainment though maybe not for too much longer, especially if the Euro starts giving consistent support, the 12Z GFS is now the 12th GFS run in a row and the 21st+ over the last nine days showing TC genesis in the SW Caribbean by ~10/10: 6Z 10/5: hits FL Big Bend early on 10/15 as ~cat 1 'cane (986 mb) followed by a NNE move just inland the coast up to the NE US 10/16. 12Z 10/5: hits FL Bid Bend AM of 10/16 as ~cat 1 'cane (988 mb) followed by a big slowdown and loop back SEward to the Bahamas 10/19 followed by a NE turn out to sea. Obviously, the big slowdown/looping looks very suspect based on all of the GFS runs of recent days as well as climo but the run til it hits the Big Bend is consistent with 10/15-6 FL west coast hits on many GFS runs in recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 FWIW, i think it would be wise to wait a while longer before you jump on board. Relying on the garbage portion of the GFS is less reliable than a blind man throwing darts. Another case of hobbyists having too much info that they don't know how to properly use. 1) Is what I bolded of yours a direct reference to me? Let me know. If so, this needs to be discussed further. 2) I'm not sure about the reason for your 2nd post like this. I'm still not yet "jumping on board" as you can see if you read my posts carefully (still mainly for entertainment as I keep posting), especially considering only one Euro run with just very modest support. 3) Besides entertainment value, these posts allow for a record to be looked back at as regards whether the GFS flops again in this part of the basin like it did in May/June and in Sept. or it finally finds its nut. 4) Other than this, there is ~zero happening in the Atlantic basin now or in the forecast. So, the thread is otherwise very quiet. Also, this is the only thread to post this at this BB on a nonregional basis. 5) The modeled genesis is now within 96-120 hours or so. So, the genesis, itself, is now well ahead of the garbage portion of this admittedly unreliable model in general. 6) The W Caribbean is about the most favored area in early to mid Oct. in the entire basin climowise. Also, early to mid Oct. is about the most favored time period for W. Caribbean genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Can we petition Dr. Louis Uccellini to fix the GFS? At this point, it has become a complete joke of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Can we petition Dr. Louis Uccellini to fix the GFS? At this point, it has become a complete joke of a model.There's a massive upgrade scheduled in a few months if I'm not mistaken. Resolution will be increased to 15km and the parallel has been showing less signs of bogus cyclones. Interesting to note that the parallel also did not show development when the OP GFS was going crazy in the Caribbean during June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 There's a massive upgrade scheduled in a few months if I'm not mistaken. Resolution will be increased to 15km and the parallel has been showing signs of less bogus cyclones. Interesting to note that the parallel also did not show development when the OP GFS was going crazy in the Caribbean during June. What has the parallel been showing as compared to the op. GFS for the W Caribbean in recent days? Similar, much less, nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 What has the parallel been showing as compared to the op. GFS for the W Caribbean in recent days? Similar, much less, nothing? Only have it to 180 hours, but the 00z was similar to the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 There is a moderate CCKW moving into the W Carib region in the next week or so. MJO isn't quite in the greatest place but it's not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Today's 12Z Euro still shows no support for the GFS as it has basically nada for the W. Caribbean. It had only one very weak low on one run. Otherwise, it has had nada. Instead, it has been favoring the EPAC for genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Only have it to 180 hours, but the 00z was similar to the operational. Interesting. So, unlike the June debacle, the op. GFS actually has support from its parallel run. I don't know that it has significane, but I suppose it is worthy to note your point about agreement this time (well at least for today's 12Z run). I guess I would have liked to have known what recent prior parallel runs have done. Folks, we have a classic tropics related forecasting battle going on: the battle weary hometown underdog and very unreliable GFS vs. the longerm favorite, the steady Euro. Fun times for forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Today's 12Z Euro still shows no support for the GFS as it has basically nada for the W. Caribbean. It had only one very weak low on one run. Otherwise, it has had nada. Instead, it has been favoring the EPAC for genesis. The end result is quite different, but the ECMWF and the GFS actually look fairly similar at 96h with a dual-lobe vorticity structure centered over Costa Rica. Only by 120 h do they begin to significantly diverge: the ECMWF having the western vortex become dominant, the GFS favoring the eastern. The difference is fairly subtle, and will come down to whichever side of the gyre (for lack of a better term) can sustain deep convection for longer... which is quite difficult to forecast for any model. Also note that the steering flow is very weak in both models from days 6-9. Even if something does develop in the East Pac, it's not out of the question that it could potentially cross over e.g. the Bay of Campeche. It's still far from set in stone that something will spin up in the Caribbean, but IMO this setup has more merit than the fantasy canes the GFS was spinning up in the beginning of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Met Steve Gregory.. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=247 The tropical environment continues to be generally hostile to tropical cyclone formation, but a gradual decrease in wind shear and a somewhat more favorable overall flow pattern MAY begin to take shape, particularly in the western CARIB, next week. The GFS is famously far too aggressive in developing tropical cyclones in the western CARIB both at the start and end of the hurricane season – and has been ‘forecasting’ a tropical formation in the western CARIB between Days 13-15 seemingly during every other model run for over the last couple weeks. HOWEVER, over the past few days, much greater continuity in these forecasts has appeared, with several other global models also (very roughly) picking up on this trend as well. Though the probabilities of a cyclone formation have increased – with a formation increasingly likely in about 7-10 days in the western CARIB – conditions do not appear favorable for a cyclone to form during the next 5-days. This trend is also in rough agreement with several other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Euro actually forms the storm in the E pac south of Honduras, than moves it over the Yucatan. It might reform in the gulf if you extrapolate past 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Superstorm- thanks a lot for the info on GFS parallel run. Can you post a link? I haven't been able to find it. Only have it to 180 hours, but the 00z was similar to the operational. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Superstorm- thanks a lot for the info on GFS parallel run. Can you post a link? I haven't been able to find it. Sent from my iPhone Sure. The output can be found in the 2D section. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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