Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[Kory]

Edouard is now forecasted to reach major status.  Looks like we'll break the streak...

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z ECMWF quickly develops a wave that will emerge off of Africa in about three days. Could be a named system by the end of this week. The 12z GFS is very similar. Just looks to be a stat padder at this point.

[Superstorm93]

The 12z ECMWF quickly develops a wave that will emerge off of Africa in about three days. Could be a named system by the end of this week. The 12z GFS is very similar. Just looks to be a stat padder at this point.

Actually has the remnants of Eduard dropping down in eight days, and lifts the ghost system out of the EATL. Kind of interesting to see.

[phil882]

Actually has the remnants of Eduard dropping down in eight days, and lifts the ghost system out of the EATL. Kind of interesting to see.

 

Eduard looks like its going to put on its best Nadine impression in the long range ECMWF. NHC is forecasting it to be post-tropical, but it might be one of those ambiguous cases that will depend on the preference of the forecaster as the ECMWF suggests it will remain a warm core disturbance with significant convection and > tropical storm force winds. Lets revisit this issue in about 5 days.

[MarkSC]

Wow, mid September and no postings on this topic in over 24 hours. Must be famine. It looks like shear covers the Atlantic now.

[AvantHiatus]

Wow, mid September and no postings on this topic in over 24 hours. Must be famine. It looks like shear covers the Atlantic now.

Pulling ahead of 2013, victory...everyone knows deep down that October will be active for the Gulf and East Coast.

 

 

Now it's just a waiting game w/some potential homebrew coming up.

[Guest Imperator]

Pulling ahead of 2013, victory...everyone knows deep down that October will be active for the Gulf and East Coast.

 

 

Now it's just a waiting game w/some potential homebrew coming up.

 

The human version of the GGEM Model. LOL

[Big O]

Pulling ahead of 2013, victory...everyone knows deep down that October will be active for the Gulf and East Coast.

 

 

Now it's just a waiting game w/some potential homebrew coming up.

 

Homebrew?  Where?  Off the SE coast and/or GOM?

[AvantHiatus]

Homebrew?  Where?  Off the SE coast and/or GOM?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014091712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014091712/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

 

Red meat setup for October, 500mb Anomaly - GFS Ensembles. When the pattern shifts, it always maintains for months.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GEFS were loaded with gulf systems and east coast threats. Refreshing to see.

[GaWx]

^{The human version of the GGEM Model. LOL}

 

^{Fwiw, the 12Z Euro has a surface low develop SE of FL on 9/25 underneath a high and then it moves slowly NNW from there and still off of the coast 9/27. Some of the moisture associated with this low originates from what is now near 40W in the MDR.}

[Kory]

^{Fwiw, the 12Z Euro has a surface low develop SE of FL on 9/25 underneath a high and then it moves slowly NNW from there and still off of the coast 9/27. Some of the moisture associated with this low originates from what is now near 40W in the MDR.}

The Euro is also still hinting at some Gulf of Mexico action around day 9 or 10, which bolsters what the GFS has been showing as well.

 

Let's see if the 2014 hurricane season goes out with a bang instead of a whimper.  

[MarkSC]

^{Fwiw, the 12Z Euro has a surface low develop SE of FL on 9/25 underneath a high and then it moves slowly NNW from there and still off of the coast 9/27. Some of the moisture associated with this low originates from what is now near 40W in the MDR.}

 

Still there on today's 0Z.  Further east but seems to be moving west with a pretty good ridge.

[Kory]

Still there on today's 0Z. Further east but seems to be moving west with a pretty good ridge.

Looks less defined on the 0z run versus yesterday's 12z run. I'm sure they'll be a ULL associated with the TUTT nearby and kill it like 92L. I'm not optimistic about development.

[Kory]

12z GFS continues to show development before truncation in the SW Caribbean for next week.  Interesting set up it shows with the energy crossing Central America from the Pacific to the SW Caribbean.  I have my doubts about this though, as the Caribbean has exceptionally high shear this season.  The real test will be if it moves up in time or keeps lingering around 180+ hours.  The GFS is showing the MJO to enter a favorable phase for the Atlantic, perhaps why it's showing more activity.  The ECMWF, isn't showing a favorable MJO.  

 

 

[GaWx]

12z GFS continues to show development before truncation in the SW Caribbean for next week.  Interesting set up it shows with the energy crossing Central America from the Pacific to the SW Caribbean.  I have my doubts about this though, as the Caribbean has exceptionally high shear this season.  The real test will be if it moves up in time or keeps lingering around 180+ hours.  The GFS is showing the MJO to enter a favorable phase for the Atlantic, perhaps why it's showing more activity.  The ECMWF, isn't showing a favorable MJO.  

 

Kory, good post.

 

1) I assume you realize that the GFS ensemble mean's MJO predictions have been quite unimpressive in general. Though far from great, the Euro ens has done better overall. Do you agree? Of course, the GEFS will occasionally score a win.

2) Just FYI and fwiw: MJO phase statistics since 1995 for September actually suggest that the percentage of days of Atlantic basin genesis within the circle (about one very five days) has actually been a bit more favorable vs. the overall average (about one every six days). Most favorable has been phase 1: about once every four days.

[Cheeznado]

12Z GFS still gung ho about GOM development in fantasy range, 240 hour Euro beginning to hint at the same. At least we will be in a more favorable synoptic pattern for a while with more of a west coast trough/east coast type setup. I do think that a NW Caribbean/GOM system will develop sometime in later Sept or Oct, I would think that it would be hard to get through the rest of the season without at least one more US landfall threat.

[Kory]

Kory, good post.

 

1) I assume you realize that the GFS ensemble mean's MJO predictions have been quite unimpressive in general. Though far from great, the Euro ens has done better overall. Do you agree? Of course, the GEFS will occasionally score a win.

2) Just FYI and fwiw: MJO phase statistics since 1995 for September actually suggest that the percentage of days of Atlantic basin genesis within the circle (about one very five days) has actually been a bit more favorable vs. the overall average (about one every six days). Most favorable has been phase 1: about once every four days.

Definitely agree.  It seems like the GFS has been forecasting the MJO to hang out in phase 1 much more than it actually did.  

 

12Z GFS still gung ho about GOM development in fantasy range, 240 hour Euro beginning to hint at the same. At least we will be in a more favorable synoptic pattern for a while with more of a west coast trough/east coast type setup. I do think that a NW Caribbean/GOM system will develop sometime in later Sept or Oct, I would think that it would be hard to get through the rest of the season without at least one more US landfall threat.

Certainly something going on in the Gulf per the Euro.  It coincides quite well with the GFS...showing something down in the SW Caribbean around 192 hours.  

 

 

[bdgwx]

How far back do we have to go to find a year in which there was no occurrence of two or more named cyclones in existence at the same time? 1987? Or did Danielle and Earl have some overlap?

[Stebo]

How far back do we have to go to find a year in which there was no occurrence of two or more named cyclones in existence at the same time? 1987? Or did Danielle and Earl have some overlap?

They did have an overlap of 6 days from August 25th to August 31 also Fiona formed on August 30th.

[bdgwx]

My bad...I meant 1986. Danielle dissipated on 9/10, but Earl formed on 9/10...didn't know if there was an advisory or two of overlap. 

[Kory]

Looks like there could be a quick spin up off the SE Coast this weekend.  A baroclinically enhanced low is expect to form from a disturbance over the Gulf currently after it crosses Florida.  Don't expect much because the feature will be racing NE off the East Coast.  

[bluewave]

Edouard continued the short duration major hurricane theme of recent years.

Though Edouard was the first major since Sandy in 2012, both Sandy and 

Michael in 2012 were category 3 storms for only a brief period of time.

The last category 4 hurricanes occurred in 2011 and category 5 hurricanes

in 2007.

[Kory]

GFS continues showing some Caribbean and Gulf actions 180 hours and beyond.  The key is that it hasn't been moving up in time much.  The Euro backed off on it's 00z run.  I'm still hesitant on any development in that area, as shear continues to roar.  

[Guest Imperator]

Looks like there could be a quick spin up off the SE Coast this weekend.  A baroclinically enhanced low is expect to form from a disturbance over the Gulf currently after it crosses Florida.  Don't expect much because the feature will be racing NE off the East Coast.  

An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern

coast of the United States over the weekend.  The system is now

expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates

northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Edouard continued the short duration major hurricane theme of recent years.

Though Edouard was the first major since Sandy in 2012, both Sandy and 

Michael in 2012 were category 3 storms for only a brief period of time.

The last category 4 hurricanes occurred in 2011 and category 5 hurricanes

in 2007.

I'm not sure you can lump Sandy into that as the reason she weakened was due to landfall. It's not quite the same as the recent theme of unfavorable conditions. One could probably argue that Ernesto was on its way to becoming a major when it made landfall, still intensifying on the way in.

[bluewave]

I'm not sure you can lump Sandy into that as the reason she weakened was due to landfall. It's not quite the same as the recent theme of unfavorable conditions. One could probably argue that Ernesto was on its way to becoming a major when it made landfall, still intensifying on the way in.

 

It's all part of the increasing dry pattern where we have only seen 3 brief majors out of 38 named storms since 2012

which is a very low ratio. Just take a look at the major hurricane day data that CSU posts in its year end reviews.

[billgwx]

An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern

coast of the United States over the weekend.  The system is now

expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates

northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

 

 

That hasn't stopped the 00Z CMC from blowing up a Hatteras to Cape Cod special for at least the second run in a row. CMC has been going nuts with most homebrew lows, so as long as it's not time for the broken clock to be right...

 

...and I don't think it will. GFS 850 mb progs show weak baroclinicity, and phase diagrams show a neutral system, neither warm nor cold core. Would have had to watch this more closely if it had more time to sit and stew like Diana did back in 1984.

[IsentropicLift]

GFS continues showing some Caribbean and Gulf actions 180 hours and beyond.  The key is that it hasn't been moving up in time much.  The Euro backed off on it's 00z run.  I'm still hesitant on any development in that area, as shear continues to roar.  

Well the 12z GFS has dumped that idea.

[billgwx]

That hasn't stopped the 00Z CMC from blowing up a Hatteras to Cape Cod special for at least the second run in a row. CMC has been going nuts with most homebrew lows, so as long as it's not time for the broken clock to be right...

 

...and I don't think it will. GFS 850 mb progs show weak baroclinicity, and phase diagrams show a neutral system, neither warm nor cold core. Would have had to watch this more closely if it had more time to sit and stew like Diana did back in 1984.

 

Done. Today's 12Z GFS has trended heavily toward this being an asymmetric cold core system per FSU cyclone phase space diagrams: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase