Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[Kory]

 

 

 

Taking a look at the GFS, it relaxes the upper level winds in the Western and Central Gulf come Sunday...and conditions actually don't look so bad (if anything is left).  

[smog strangler]

Must post here. Best little band of the day heading in now right towards me. EPIC light show to my east with rolling rolling rolling thunder.

 

[Modfan]

Must post here. Best little band of the day heading in now right towards me. EPIC light show to my east with rolling rolling rolling thunder.

 

I agree on the rolling thunder!

[GaWx]

 On a totally different note, there have been at least five GFS runs in a row with central to NE Gulf TC landfall ~9/20-1 from something that forms near the Yucatan/far western Caribbean ~9/18-9.

 Opinions this far out? Anything likely to this or is this likely just the GFS being goofy? The Euro has yet to suggest anything similar. Fwiw, the MJO is projected to be in/near phase 1 or just within the circle around the 9/18-21 period per the GEFS/Euro ens, which is generally favorable.

 

The 18Z GFS had a weak version of this, but the 0Z GFS went back to the sig. TC Gulf coast hit for ~9/20-1 fwiw (6 of 7 runs). The Euro runs have still not yet shown this landfalling north GoM TC through the 12Z run of THU.

[Srain]

The 18Z GFS had a weak version of this, but the 0Z GFS went back to the sig. TC Gulf coast hit for ~9/20-1 fwiw (6 of 7 runs). The Euro runs have still not yet shown this landfalling north GoM TC through the 12Z run of THU.

The GEFS and the Euro ensemble mean have been suggesting lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf for that past several cycles in the medium to longer range as the robust cckw enters the Western Atlantic Basin.

[phil882]

92L is certainly not giving up without a fight... nice mesocyclone in the current cluster of strong cells over FL.

 

[wxmeddler]

92L is certainly not giving up without a fight... nice mesocyclone in the current cluster of strong cells over FL.

 

Yup, perfectly cyclonic windfield on the surface stations around it too. The nearest sfc pressure reading to the "center" is 1011.9 is by a South Florida Water Management District Mesonet station.

[Srain]

The overnight reliable guidance.suggests 92L will continue traveling W across the Gulf and will be S of Louisiana on Tuesday beneath a mid level ridge S of a stalled frontal boundary. The Euro and GFS keep this disturbance weak, but interestingly the HWRF is now a bit more aggressive and suggests a 45kt Tropical Storm nearing the Middle Texas Coast in Wednesday. The TVCN agrees with a movement toward Coastal Texas as a stalled boundary lingers along or just S of the I-10 Corridor before washing out. The medium range guidance suggests a short wave will move across the Southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday and drop a frontal boundary into Texas. Mid/upper level moisture associated with EPAC Odile will continue spreading across Northern Mexico and additional tropical moisture from the Caribbean looks to pool across the Western Gulf as well.

[Kory]

The overnight reliable guidance.suggests 92L will continue traveling W across the Gulf and will be S of Louisiana on Tuesday beneath a mid level ridge S of a stalled frontal boundary. The Euro and GFS keep this disturbance weak, but interestingly the HWRF is now a bit more aggressive and suggests a 45kt Tropical Storm nearing the Middle Texas Coast in Wednesday. The TVCN agrees with a movement toward Coastal Texas as a stalled boundary lingers along or just S of the I-10 Corridor before washing out. The medium range guidance suggests a short wave will move across the Southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday and drop a frontal boundary into Texas. Mid/upper level moisture associated with EPAC Odile will continue spreading across Northern Mexico and additional tropical moisture from the Caribbean looks to pool across the Western Gulf as well.

The NHC usually likes to model their track after the TVCN, or the consensus of the models. So if this were to be declared and have a forecast track, it'd look like the TVCN. If you look closely, it looks like the TVCN slows down toward the end and is showing signs of bending back N and possibly NE.

[Kory]

According to surface wind reports, it looks like the surface low is just east of Belle Glade, FL.  Lowest pressure I've found was 29.88 inches or 1011 mbars.  

[Srain]

To further complicate matters, a surface low is developing in the Bay of Campeche via buoy data and surface observations.

 

[Kory]

Some 12z runs for 92L.  Majority are showing some sort of recurve back to the NE. 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Could we be getting another center relocation? Looks like some spinning on radar near Key West.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=byx&loop=yes

 

That spinning is right under where the latest burst of convection is taking place

 

[GaWx]

The 18Z GFS had a weak version of this, but the 0Z GFS went back to the sig. TC Gulf coast hit for ~9/20-1 fwiw (6 of 7 runs). The Euro runs have still not yet shown this landfalling north GoM TC through the 12Z run of THU.

The 6z GFS has a TC landfall on the NE gulf coast on 9/22, i.e., delayed about a day from those 6 of

7 GFS runs with a 9/20-1 hit. If this 6z run is counted, that would make 7 of 8 of the last GFS runs with a US gulf coast hit during the 9/20-2 period fwiw.

Edit: should there be a separate thread created for 92-L?

[Srain]

The 6z GFS has a TC landfall on the NE gulf coast on 9/22, i.e., delayed about a day from those 6 of

7 GFS runs with a 9/20-1 hit. If this 6z run is counted, that would make 7 of 8 of the last GFS runs with a US gulf coast hit during the 9/20-2 period fwiw.

Edit: should there be a separate thread created for 92-L?

If a TD/TS is declared, there will be a pinned thread for it.

[IsentropicLift]

Is this the system that the long range GFS had been developing last week?

 

[Kory]

Could we be getting another center relocation? Looks like some spinning on radar near Key West.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=byx&loop=yes

That spinning is right under where the latest burst of convection is taking place

Surface obs still support a surface low NE of the Bell Glade area. I don't see anything to support a surface circulation down there.

[IsentropicLift]

Surface obs still support a surface low NE of the Bell Glade area. I don't see anything to support a surface circulation down there.

SPC meso analysis shows the low over Florida but you can see some spinning near Kew West as well, maybe not a closed circulation but some resembelence of cyclonic winds.

 

[MarkSC]

This is going to be a fun one to track if the east turn in the Gulf occurs like some models are forecasting. Development chances look to improve if that turn occurs.

[GaWx]

Some 12z runs for 92L. Majority are showing some sort of recurve back to the NE.

Even the Euro hints at this. After having the surface low hit S/C TX on 9/17, it suggests much of the 92-L moisture/energy making a sharp turn toward the ENE as the 500 mb winds near 92L switch from an easterly component to WSW as the long wave 500 mb trough gets further down in the SE US. So, the WSW upper level winds seem to then take much of the moisture/energy ENE late next week even with the intact sfc low no longer existing on the 0z Euro after it hits TX.

[Kory]

SPC meso analysis shows the low over Florida but you can see some spinning near Kew West as well, maybe not a closed circulation but some resembelence of cyclonic winds.

It looks like that may be a mid level circulation as the 500 mbar vorticity is SSW of the 850 and 700 mbar vorticity. Looks elongated and very disorganized.

[Srain]

The cckw continues to progress E. It appears the ensemble means were correct last week when they were suggesting lowering pressures and a potential unsettled pattern developing in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf in the mid September timeframe.

 

[Superstorm93]

Surprise?

[IsentropicLift]

Surprise?

Plenty of global model runs have been developing that wave for over a week. NHC made it a lemon this morning.

[Superstorm93]

Plenty of global model runs have been developing that wave for over a week. NHC made it a lemon this morning.

It's looking very well organized this morning. There's more than likely a LLC just by looking at the cloud pattern and the upper-level cirrus indicates a relatively decent shear profile. First storm-specific models take this generally West and gradually strengthen it to near Hurricane strength. Could be interesting due to the fact that the CCKW should aid in development/intensification down the line.

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[Superstorm93]

AOI in the BOC appears to be organizing rather quickly. 

 

[Kory]

A potential monkey wrench into 92L's future could be the ULL that is to it's east enhancing the northerly shear.  If that continues to move westward along with 92L (into the Gulf of Mexico), you can stick a fork in him...

 

[wxmx]

AOI in the BOC appears to be organizing rather quickly. 

 

 

They always do...but there's just too  much shear and < 24 hours before land interaction. Has the perfect track and timing to interact with our first weak cold front and orographic moisture fetch. Raw GFS output bullseyes my region with 5-8"

[bluewave]

North of 25N seems like the dividing line for getting a hurricane in the Atlantic this 

season north of the very dry and stable air.

 

[wxmx]

92L is now bare naked...maybe it can pull a Dolly and reform near the convection around the westernmost keys. Latest ASCAT shows a tiny and weak area of cyclonic winds there.