Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 We'll probably need that pressure to come down some more to tighten the gradient before we see any appreciable increase in winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Even though the vertical wind shear is increasing over 92L, note that the the upper-levels will also be very diffluent over 92L as the upper-level low to 92L's northeast is causing some upper-level wind vectors to shift back westerly. This is one of the reasons the initial dry air over the region has moistened rapidly the last 12-18 hours. This should also allow convection to continue to pulse which will mitigate the strongest easterly vertical shear the next 24-48 hours. Center relocations south and east further into the deep convection are also entirely possible, and in fact might be trying to occur currently. west? It appears that the current burst of deep convection is doing the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 What about the system southeast of TD6? That looks pretty good right now as well Edit: looks like that convection has collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 West Palm Beach is reporting winds out of the N. Ft. Lauderdale is reporting winds out of the NW and Miami is reporting winds out of the W. It would appear that we have a broad cyclonic flow established on the western side of 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 West Palm Beach is reporting winds out of the N. Ft. Lauderdale is reporting winds out of the NW and Miami is reporting winds out of the W. It would appear that we have a broad cyclonic flow established on the western side of 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 west? It appears that the current burst of deep convection is doing the trick. Haha yes... I mean west. In any event, I have yet to see a model that currently depicts the current large region of stratiform and embedded convective precipitation. The GFS has no convection over the region that currently has < -60 oC tops. Because the pressure minimum with the system is not that significant, its should be relatively easy for convection to result in a new center formation since there isn't much inertial stability in the circulation. If the convection collapses it could similarly destroy the vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Haha yes... I mean west. In any event, I have yet to see a model that currently depicts the current large region of stratiform and embedded convective precipitation. The GFS has no convection over the region that currently has < -60 oC tops. Because the pressure minimum with the system is not that significant, its should be relatively easy for convection to result in a new center formation since there isn't much inertial stability in the circulation. If the convection collapses it could similarly destroy the vortex. The 12z GGEM which just initialized seems to have a fairly good handle on things and keeps the convection going as it crosses into S FL in about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 NHC definitely not too interested. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories onnewly developed Tropical Depression Six, located several hundredmiles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area near thenorthwestern Bahamas has become more concentrated today, and thecirculation of the low has become a little better defined. Someadditional development could occur before upper-level winds becomeless conducive tonight. The low is expected to move generallywestward across the southern Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulfof Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless ofdevelopment, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions ofsouthern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple ofdays.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 NHC definitely not too interested. I think if the system was going to spend more time over water before interacting with Florida things would be more positive. If the system can make it to far south Florida and cross the Everglades, it's not out of question for it to hold together or even strengthen. We've seen a few storms maintain themselves in that region thanks to the swampy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 On a totally different note, there have been at least five GFS runs in a row with central to NE Gulf TC landfall ~9/20-1 from something that forms near the Yucatan/far western Caribbean ~9/18-9. Opinions this far out? Anything likely to this or is this likely just the GFS being goofy? The Euro has yet to suggest anything similar. Fwiw, the MJO is projected to be in/near phase 1 or just within the circle around the 9/18-21 period per the GEFS/Euro ens, which is generally favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 On a totally different note, there have been at least five GFS runs in a row with central to NE Gulf TC landfall ~9/20-1 from something that forms near the Yucatan/far western Caribbean ~9/18-9. Opinions this far out? Anything likely to this or is this likely just the GFS being goofy? The Euro has yet to suggest anything similar. Fwiw, the MJO is projected to be in/near phase 1 or just within the circle around the 9/18-21 period per the GEFS/Euro ens, which is generally favorable. It seems that development kept getting pushed further and further back. About 8-10 days ago, it was originally showing some Bay of Campeche action with a South Texas landfall around the 9/11 or 9/12 time frame. As you know that hasn't come to fruition. The shear is just incredibly strong in the Caribbean...I am hard pressed to believe that anything will form there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro actually takes 92-L to S TX on 9/17 but only as a weak low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro actually takes 92-L to S TX on 9/17 but only as a weak low.It doesn't seem to initialize it as a closed circulation which we already know it has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Looks like there was a blowup of convection right over the center in the last few frames of the satellite. In class currently on my phone, so I can't post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 You can see how the northeasterly shear has taken its toll today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Isn't this the same place Arthur formed? He was battling northerly shear as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Isn't this the same place Arthur formed? He was battling northerly shear as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Convection associated with 92L is not developing near the 'center'. The 12Z global guidance expect for the CMC keep this weak disturbance moving W into Texas mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Isn't this the same place Arthur formed? He was battling northerly shear as well... But what does that have to do with 92L? This is an entirely different setup. Pre-arthur sat and congealed for five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 But what does that have to do with 92L? This is an entirely different setup. Pre-arthur sat and congealed for five days. I never really said they had the same set up or drew a comparison (besides the shear)...just mentioned one other storm that developed in the exact same area. I just think it's interesting how close they look in the early stages. Arthur: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Convection associated with 92L is not developing near the 'center'. The 12Z global guidance expect for the CMC keep this weak disturbance moving W into Texas mid next week. 20140911.1930.goes13.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.25kts-1014mb-274N-784W.100pc.jpg I think it's time for a Tropical Depression Watch and Tropical Wave Warning for the South FL coast. Definitely warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I think it's time for a Tropical Depression Watch and Tropical Wave Warning for the South FL coast. Definitely warranted. Florida is currently under a cumulus cloud emergency as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Moustache-canetm 18z GFS is a little more bullish with both 92L and the NW Caribbean mess...but other than potential namewasters/rainmakers...they are nothing to hold our breath to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Euro likes 92L a tad more. Keeps it status quo in the gulf at least in its latest run. Wish I could figure out the shear values it is putting out. Just looking at the psu version. I'm sure shear has to be high, but I think it will develop into a TD/weak TS in the next 24-60 hour time frame as shear looks low enough to give 92L some breathing room. After that from the opinions I've seen on the board, shear looks to increase a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Does it appear, to anyone else, that the LLC is now just NW of Grand Bahama? Looking at radar/satellite, it appears that it has starting moving SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I think it's time for a Tropical Depression Watch and Tropical Wave Warning for the South FL coast. Definitely warranted. I live in West Palm Beach. Air is still and it's just a steady rain...not even that heavy. I think S. Florida will be fine. I'd take a nice afternoon thunderstorm over this any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 This is cringe worthy. HWRF takes it over 30C+ waters during the peak of the hurricane season, and all we have to show for it by the end of the run is a dying wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 From radar it appears a new mid or low-level center has developed closer to the deep convection just off the Florida coastline. You can see the old center continue to decay further to the northeast on visible satellite imagery. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=S_Florida-vis-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Looks like it's almost vertically stacked through at least 500 mbars, which is slightly displaced to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Looks like it's almost vertically stacked through at least 500 mbars, which is slightly displaced to the South. The problem is in the upper-levels... You can see this very well on Sat with the strong 200-300mb winds shearing 92L from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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