Guest Imperator Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Bahamas feature is starting to look better. 12Z GEM goes crazy with it again. Shows a track that would lead to some severe SE flooding. GEM and tropics should not be mentioned in the same breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 GEM and tropics should not be mentioned in the same breath. Take a look at it, speaks for itself right? 6 more hours of convection will solidify developement unless shear picks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Bahamas feature is starting to look better. 12Z GEM goes crazy with it again. Shows a track that would lead to some severe SE flooding. AL, 92, 2014091018, , BEST, 0, 266N, 756W, 20, 1014, LO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Bahamas feature is starting to look better. 12Z GEM goes crazy with it again. Shows a track that would lead to some severe SE flooding. The GEM track (not strength) is somewhat believable since most models have it drifting westward into the central Gulf before getting picked up by a front and pulled north and northeast. But shear is going to be a BIG issue and I don't see how it ramps up that fast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Bahamas feature is starting to look better. 12Z GEM goes crazy with it again. Shows a track that would lead to some severe SE flooding. The Crazy Uncle is just that, crazy. Nevertheless, this Bahamas disturbance does seem to be showing some lower level turning on the vis. Also, the water vapor loop suggests there may be a favorable anticyclone on top of it. I still say this could be a sleeper due to the reasons I gave earlier and am still going with about a 50% chance it will eventually become a TD+ (Initially either E of FL or in Gulf). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Looks like we have a sleeper on our hands. Surface low has consolidated today despite lack of model support and only marginally favorable conditions. Shouldn't amount to anything more than a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Just like that, this is now Invest 92-L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 No change... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure locatedabout 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands remains disorganized.While tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated today,environmental conditions could become somewhat more favorable fordevelopment by later in the week while the low moves toward thewest-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and theadjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface troughinteracting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of thissystem is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generallywestward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 They probably want some more model support besides the GEM before they raise development chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 At least in the short term, it will move west or even a bit WSW, as there is a ridge to the N and NW. It also looks pretty small, so rapid development into a TS is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 It appears there is little chance of a trough eroding the SE ridge, not even in the CMC forecasts. The reason the CMC tracks this to the Nern GoM is that ridge is a little weaker and gets pushed a bit south, leaving 92L very near the axis ridge. The GFS, Euro and their ensembles keep 92L below the axis ridge and in a track farther to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 ASCAT confirms there's a weak closed surface low (not that it needed much confirmation, as vis imagery is pretty telling). The passes were at 14:33 and 15:25 UTC...with the latter showing stronger winds in the NW quad, where convection has been developing. This pretty much matches up with trends in the satellite imagery at those times...and probably is better organized and strengthening now. Shear is pretty low, so I guess the convection won't just go away...so I'll venture a guess that we'll have at least a mandarin by the next TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Are we too wedded to the models? Other than the lack of model support, which is admittedly cause for concern, 92L has a lot going for it. It's over one of the best spots in the entire Atlantic basis for development currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Are we too wedded to the models? Other than the lack of model support, which is admittedly cause for concern, 92L has a lot going for it. It's over one of the best spots in the entire Atlantic basis for development currently. I wouldn't blame it entirely on the models. 92L is tiny, so there is probably some resolution issues as well. Outflow boundaries ejected from the mess in the NW Caribbean are approaching 92L from the SW, it will be interesting to see if there's an interaction and if they would help increase the convection over the disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The early BAM models seem to agree with GEM on the track (north central Gulf and then a hard right turn in about 5 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The early BAM models seem to agree with GEM on the track (north central Gulf and then a hard right turn in about 5 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Are we too wedded to the models? I think this is definitely a problem, especially among hobbyists who don't have much meteorology knowledge and even worse, among some "social" meteorologists. As I said a couple of weeks ago in this thread, putting so much raw model output out there in the hands of a hobbyist with little or no professional training is dangerous. You can see some of that result on social media these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Talk about quick organization. It was a bare swirl just a few hours ago. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and shear is low, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a tropical cyclone before moving into Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Talk about quick organization. It was a bare swirl just a few hours ago. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and shear is low, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a tropical cyclone before moving into Florida. My thoughts exactly. Convection is persisting very well over the closed low. I wouldnt be surprised to see TD status on this very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 This thing is going to be a slow mover. Nothing to really inhibit slow intensification but maybe some northerly shear from the ridge over the Southeast U.S. It's got about 48 hours over water before hitting South Florida and the Gulf Stream runs right along the coast there...just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The Gulf Coast WFO's in their afternoon coordination call are not enthusiastic regarding any development from 92L. The general consensus is this feature will move W into the Gulf as an open wave/trough and enhance precipitation across the Northern and NW Gulf as a stalled frontal boundary lingers inland or along the Gulf Coast. The Euro/GFS solutions seem reasonable and suggest this disturbance will move W and near the NE Mexico/South Texas Coast in about 6-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Wow looking much better now maybe I was wrong this morning when I said there was no chance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 While 92L is looking rather interesting this afternoon, we still have zero support from any reliable global models as well as the intensity models. 92L is rather small and pressures are very high in the area (on the order of 1017mb or so) so I have a really hard time believing that convection will be able to hold on long enough for this to actually be able to consolidate the surface low to a point that this takes advantage of the highly favorable OHC/thermo environment. The "2014 Rule" is definitely in effect for this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 Looks like there are multiple vortmaxes movving around the main center in the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Recon is going in tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 While 92L is looking rather interesting this afternoon, we still have zero support from any reliable global models as well as the intensity models. 92L is rather small and pressures are very high in the area (on the order of 1017mb or so) so I have a really hard time believing that convection will be able to hold on long enough for this to actually be able to consolidate the surface low to a point that this takes advantage of the highly favorable OHC/thermo The reliable models are probably having trouble developing this because of its small size. From the looks of things, they may be falling behind what appears may already be occurring, an organizing LLC/developing TC underneath upper level high pressure over very warm SST's and within a moist environment. Keep watching this one. The small size in combo with the overall current good conditions could allow for some rather quick development even while still E of FL. Edit: Is the NAM from yesterday going to score a win?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The Gulf Coast WFO's in their afternoon coordination call are not enthusiastic regarding any development from 92L. The general consensus is this feature will move W into the Gulf as an open wave/trough and enhance precipitation across the Northern and NW Gulf as a stalled frontal boundary lingers inland or along the Gulf Coast. The Euro/GFS solutions seem reasonable and suggest this disturbance will move W and near the NE Mexico/South Texas Coast in about 6-7 days. Our friend from down south agrees with your assessment on track (not necessarily on intensity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The upper level winds on the backside of the huge upper level ridge over the SE US is going to put some marginal to strong (20-30kts) over 92L in about 24 hrs. It has until then to get it's act together. Maybe if it gets going quick it can make it to TD/Low-end TS but after that window is closed, it's development is going to be stunted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 000 ABNT20 KNHC 102330 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has increased and become a little better organized this evening. This system is now moving toward an area more favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the low moves toward the west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A weak area of low pressure has formed near the northwestern Bahamas, and its associated shower activity is showing some signs of organization. However, the environment is forecast to become unfavorable for significant development while the low moves slowly westward toward southern Florida. If necessary, an Air Force plane will investigate this system tomorrow. Regardless of development, this low will bring heavy rains over portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Recon is going in tomorrow afternoon. Not exactly. It's one of those "if necessary" deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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