Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[Marion_NC_WX]

One area I think could sneak up on the models is the Bahamas and Southeast Florida come middle of next week...we have a decent vort that will move west through that region...the GFS has a part of it splitting and going up the East Coast with the bigger piece slowly drifting through the Florida Straights by next weekend.

 

Models are not showing much in terms of development but given Climatology,  the extremely warm SST's, neutral conditions aloft (shear) and just the general trend of this hurricane season (in close development)...there is IMO a chance that convection may try to develop and organize enough to where that region gets assigned with an INVEST number at some point...just something to think about if we get a quick flare up...

 

 

[hurricaneman]

The GFS blows up the area over Mali into a strong tropical storm in the Cape Verde Islands, but thats the thing that the GFS has a bias on but the Euro does have something of a weak low in the same area at the same time but heres the thing is we need to watch is what this does at splashdown as most of if not all the waves have went poof at splashdown

[Kory]

Lower level convergence and upper level divergence has increased over 99L overnight.  Shear is a measly <10 kts, but it won't be over water long enough to show significant organization.  It'll be over the Yucatan by tomorrow morning.  Any significant develop would probably occur over the Bay of Campeche as the topography seems to help strengthen storms more quickly.  It's forecasted to slow down as well over the BOC, but a WNW track into Mexico is likely.   

[Srain]

While model support is lackluster, past experience suggests that as these weak tropical disturbances passing over the Yucatan Peninsula can do some strange things development wise and even slowly strengthen. If the disturbance meanders a couple of days in the Western Gulf, there is some potential of development taking into account the Isthmus of Tehuantepec wind gap and lower pressures across the Western Gulf with a weak trough along the NE Mexico/South Texas area this morning.

[Amped]

12z GEFS has about 4 members showing an LA landfall and 1 showing a TX landfall between 9/12 and 9/14.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's pretty easy to find the forming circulation this afternoon (19N 89W):

 

[wxmx]

It's pretty easy to find the forming circulation this afternoon (19N 89W):

 

There's a well defined mid level vortex around that coordinates (probably a tad south) according to CIMSS wind analysis...the low level energy is kind of split...but models congeal those energies around the area the mid level vortex is. Anyway, as it has happened the past few years, it's getting better organized over land. I like the nice outflow channel to it's ENE and that shear is lowering <10kts in the BoC

[wxmx]

Land interaction has aided organization once more:

 

 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook TextTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move over the
waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche early Monday, where
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development. This system has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next two to three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

 

[Kory]

Here's the 12z best track.  It shows the LLC actually over water currently with the heaviest convection displaced eastward.  But it does appear that convection is beginning to fire over the LLC.

 

AL, 99, 2014090112, , BEST, 0, 192N, 920W, 25, 1009, LO

 

[Srain]

99L is encountering some northerly shear. The mid level circulation is detached to the NE. We should see some increase in tropical showers/storms along the Texas Coast into Wednesday. I do not expect this to develop much at all until possibly nearing Tampico tomorrow afternoon/evening...if then.

[wxmx]

I agree with Steve, the anticyclone is moving west, and the LLC isn't catching up. 20kts Nerly shear will keep affecting 99L for most of it's trek WNW, probably diminishing just before landfall.

[wxmx]

Recon has found a loose but closed circulation around 19.9N 93.2W. Vis satellite imagery shows that it's getting a bit better organized, but still plagued by shear. Winds are lackluster. Convection around the center is very limited, so my guess is that it won't get numbered until we get a persistent bout of convection around the LLC.

[David Reimer]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
low to see if a well-defined center of circulation has formed.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression later today or
on Tuesday while it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph. Interests
along the western Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this disturbance, since watches or warnings could soon be
required. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy
rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today
and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kory]

Looks like there's a LLC somewhere NE of where the NHC is marking it.  Perhaps 21N and 92W.  

 

[Srain]

URNT12 KNHC 011911

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092014

A. 01/18:38:10Z

B. 20 deg 02 min N

093 deg 19 min W

C. NA

D. 25 kt

E. 053 deg 19 nm

F. 141 deg 9 kt

G. 056 deg 40 nm

H. EXTRAP 1009 mb

I. 23 C / 308 m

J. 25 C / 307 m

K. 19 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 2345 / 1

O. 0.02 / 8 nm

P. AF309 01GGA INVEST OB 10

MAX FL WIND 31 KT 102 / 104 NM 17:51:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 18 KT 226 / 83 NM 19:05:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

;

[wxmx]

Area of rather strong surface winds measured by the SFMR to the SW of the LLC...45+kts, non-rain contaminated most of them...but the FL winds are well below that (<20 kts) in that same area. Maybe some orographic enhanced winds?

[wxmx]

Most models (the trustworthy ones) show a NW track early on then bending back to the WNW and then almost due W before landfall.

[Superstorm93]

Area of rather strong surface winds measured by the SFMR to the SW of the LLC...45+kts, non-rain contaminated most of them...but the FL winds are well below that (<20 kts) in that same area. Maybe some orographic enhanced winds?

 

95% sure its shoaling, so those are bogus. The waters in that area are extremely shallow, so it would make sense. 

 

I still think that something is trying to get going NE of the VDM location. Just looks really suspect on vis/microwave 

 

[Srain]

Jorge and I chatted about the area NE of where RECON located the 'elongated center'. It is typical to see a couple of meso vorts in a developing cyclone. Remember Cristobal while it was organizing?

[Kory]

Current low level steering...you can see it'll be gaining some northerly component in the short term.  

 

[thewxmann]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 93.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[wxmx]

 

 

000

WTNT45 KNHC 012036

TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014

400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the

low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a

well-defined center of circulation. The system has a curved band of

deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions

of the circulation. Thus the system is being designated as a

tropical depression at this time. The maximum winds reported by the

aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt. Although the

cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the

atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening. Dynamical

models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly

vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36

hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.

After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous

terrain of Mexico. The official wind speed forecast is a little

above the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11. The

steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. The flow

to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico

coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36

hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall. The official

track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model

consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 20.1N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$

Forecaster Pasch

[Kory]

The projected path will probably closely resemble the TVCN.  

 

[wxmx]

Almost not worthy of it's own thread, but just the fact that it's affecting land...

 

New thread for TD 5

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44376-td-5/

[AutoPenalti]

So 2014 continues without a single interesting storm. Wow.

[IsentropicLift]

So 2014 continues without a single interesting storm. Wow.

Arthur wasn't interesting? Cat 2 into NC. Snob.

[thewxmann]

So 2014 continues without a single interesting storm. Wow.

 

Still better than anything we saw in 2013

[AvantHiatus]

Getting worked up on September 1st is somewhat unfortunate. Give the season room to breathe and follow climatology. Don't live and die by every model run.

 

[AutoPenalti]

Arthur wasn't interesting? Cat 2 into NC. Snob.

And that was it.

[AvantHiatus]

And that was it.

0z GFS was wild, however it is fishville. Fujiwhara in the long-range?