Roger Smith Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Just a reminder -- if you're entered in the 2014 contest, don't forget to post a September forecast in the thread. With the Labor Day weekend, the penalty phase will be delayed to 06z Sep 2nd, and contest rules state that the time that each storm receives a name determines in what month the subsequent phases of activity will be scored. In other words, any named storm that comes into existence before 00z Sep 1 will count for August, anything that may have had a number then but no name will go for September if named in September (z time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Different look tonight with our African Wave on the GFS...previous runs was ramping that storm up quickly allowing it to move through a weakness in the Central Atlantic...tonight's run much weaker through 120 hours allowing it to go farther west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 IMO the SW GOM idea in about a week is real. The question is whether it can gain enough latitude to enter the BOC for any significant period of time... (and as usual the Euro is more bearish while the GFS is more bullish). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 The Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf still look very condusive for TC genesis this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 The Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf still look very condusive for TC genesis this weekend. The GFS is showing an area of disturbed weather hanging out in the Bay of Campeche through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 There's definitely a surface circulation east off the coast of Brownsville. It also appears stationary. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RGweathergeek Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Although much of the convection with the disturbance is displaced to the north and east of the "center". We are getting some very heavy tropical rain bands here on the upper TX coast this morning. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=hgx&loop=yes Galveston County is under an Urban and Small Steam Advisory this morning with 1-3 inches of rain in the next hour or two. Even if this isn't an official system it looks to be a prolific rain maker for most of coastal Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Ex97L is looking good at the moment but shear is high for the next day or 2 but heres an observation as this seems to be trying to consolidate farther north than the models are depicting but until we have a low the models are not going to have a good handle on things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The remnants of 97L are continuing to look better today, with persistent deep convection and hints of a weak low-level circulation. Shear is still high, courtesy of the upper-level low north of the Greater Antilles, but environmental conditions should favor additional development once this gets into the West Caribbean, and especially the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 It looks like this will be one of the few times that there has not been a TD in the Gulf Of Mexico or Bay of Campeche by the end of August. The Caribbean wave wouldn't make it into the Bay of Campeche until September 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 It looks like this will be one of the few times that there has not been a TD in the Gulf Of Mexico or Bay of Campeche by the end of August. The Caribbean wave wouldn't make it into the Bay of Campeche until September 1st. It looks like this will be the first time since 1991 that there hasn't been a named storm in the GoM (including the BoC) by 8/31! In that year, there ended up being no NS's in the GoM. Per the persistent GFS, it appears that the drought MAY break on 9/1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Most of the Gulf of Mexico is running 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C above normal for this time of year. Likely a product of the lack of tropical activity in the area as well as the western Caribbean. Any system that forms under a favorable upper air enviornment should go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 It looks like this will be the first time since 1991 that there hasn't been a named storm in the GoM (including the BoC) by 8/31! In that year, there ended up being no NS's in the GoM. Per the persistent GFS, it appears that the drought MAY break on 9/1-2, Yeah, we may have to go back to 1963 for no TD's in the Gulf or BOC by 8-31. 1991 featured 2 TD's and 1984 only 1. Cindy didn't form until 9-15-63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The remnants of 97L are continuing to look better today, with persistent deep convection and hints of a weak low-level circulation. Shear is still high, courtesy of the upper-level low north of the Greater Antilles, but environmental conditions should favor additional development once this gets into the West Caribbean, and especially the Bay of Campeche. Looks like some cyclonic spinning near 16N/71W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 1992 only had Andrew in the Gulf and obviously it was a CV hurricane and a major when it crossed the Gulf in late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The GFS has had the SW GoM storm for like 20+ runs in a row, and all of them with a final destination near Tampico...probably no more than 50 miles between the most divergent solutions (although there have been some bigger timing discrepancies). That's the good thing about ridge steered disturbances in the deep tropics, more certainty. Now let's see if there's something to it, or if the Euro with it's weaker solution gets the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Looks like some cyclonic spinning near 16N/71W I think the area to watch is farther west, south of jamaica, as that's where the best low level vorticity is, the mid level vorticity is around the coordinate you observed...it has been moving a little faster than forecasted, and the latest CMC latched to this, similar to the Euro, and are now faster and weaker than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The TW around 15N 80W is coalescing with the energy in the SW Caribbean, which may spark a stronger low level vorticity. This is creating a stronger low level convergence. Meanwhile, in the upper levels, the ULL north of the Greater Antilles is still shearing the system, but it's losing it's grip as the TW moves west under the influence of the GoM mid/upper level ridge. It's currently in the border of these two features, hence the increased upper level divergence and increased convection. The ULL will help ventilate the TW. It's a good setup for cyclogenesis, but there are a few cons. The TW is racing west...it should slow down a little, but probably not enough to give it time to organize into a TD prior to reaching the Yucatan. Land interaction may be an issue as part of the disturbance will scrap the Nern coast of Honduras. The future of the disturbance in the GoM will boil down to how much organization it will have prior to the Yucatan. A TD or better would increase the chances greatly as it splashes into the GoM. The upper level conditions in the GoM should be good enough for gradual organization, with forecasted shear levels around 10-15 kts for most of the time it will be there. It will have approximately 48 hours over water in the GoM. If it can slow down a bit more, it would also improve it's chances to get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 At 0000 UTC, 30 August 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL99) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.1°N and 80.9°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 A broad area of lower pressures and disorganized disturbed weather the NW Caribbean continues to slowly move WNW to NW this morning. The NHC has increased development chances slightly to 40% early next week when conditions may become more favorable for tropical development once it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday into Monday and enters the Bay of Campeche. The overnight ensembles are still rather well clustered near or just N of Tampico Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 A broad area of lower pressures and disorganized disturbed weather the NW Caribbean continues to slowly move WNW to NW this morning. The NHC has increased development chances slightly to 40% early next week when conditions may become more favorable for tropical development once it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday into Monday and enters the Bay of Campeche. The overnight ensembles are still rather well clustered near or just N of Tampico Tuesday into Wednesday.The GFS in particular keeps pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche for a while, even after 99L makes it's way into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The GFS in particular keeps pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche for a while, even after 99L makes it's way into Mexico. The ensembles have been suggesting the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf may well be the area to watch for any potential TC development in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The blob in the Eastern Atlantic looks mighty fine this afternoon, somehow this does not develop on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The CMC and GFS have trended weaker with 99L, while the Euro has gone stronger, completely reversing the previous depictions. Still, none of the three shows more than a TD/TS. WRT track, they have the same general path towards Tampico, with the CMC being farther north the Tamaulipas coast. I'll side with the TS camp, since BoC disturbances tend to overperform a bit, although they usually have no time to reach hurricane status unless there's a well organized structure when they enter the GoM. So, this will probably be no more than a rainmaker for the area around Tampico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 GEFS have shown a gulf storm around the 9/14 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 GEFS have shown a gulf storm around the 9/14 time frame. Yep, the ensembles and op lock into a pattern which favors W Carib, GoM disturbances for at least 2 weeks. We'll see if 99L is just the appetizer of what's to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yep, the ensembles and op lock into a pattern which favors W Carib, GoM disturbances for at least 2 weeks. We'll see if 99L is just the appetizer of what's to come. I would watch pouch 023L as it has the looks of a pre tropical cyclone and has more convergence, better shear conditions, more moisture to work with, and I believe the models are out to lunch with pouch 023L just based on conditions alone. Pouch 023L may need to be watched closely in the lesser antilles by early next week as it could be more than models are showing at the moment but after that would still be unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 18z TCGen probs went up rather high... * ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * AL992014 08/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 TCGI (%) 52.7 52.7 HDIV (x10-7s-1) -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -2.0 -6.0 -4.0 VORT (x10-6s-1) 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.0 DV24 (x10-6s-1) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.9 VSHD (kt) 12 10 15 18 15 14 17 20 13 12 6 12 10 MLRH (%) 80 81 79 75 77 75 75 74 74 80 85 84 85 PCCD (%) 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TNUM 1.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (deg N) 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.2 21.7 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.8 LON (deg W) 85.5 86.5 87.4 88.3 89.1 90.7 92.2 93.5 94.9 96.3 98.2 100.0 101.8 DTL (km) 138 149 38 -36 -130 20 190 310 239 102 -28 -221 -409 TRACK SOURCE BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG BAMG Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 52.7 is 1.9 times the sample mean ( 27.9) Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 52.7 is 1.3 times the sample mean ( 40.3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The ensembles are rather insistent on pressures continuing to fall across the SW Caribbean Sea into the Western Gulf in the medium range and beyond. In fact the pressure tendency (1008mb or less) in the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf is lower during the first 10 days or so than we have seen all season anywhere in the Atlantic Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Gulf looks to have peaked in terms of OHC and SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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