Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Atlantic Tropical Action 2014


Recommended Posts

Just a reminder -- if you're entered in the 2014 contest, don't forget to post a September forecast in the thread. With the Labor Day weekend, the penalty phase will be delayed to 06z Sep 2nd, and contest rules state that the time that each storm receives a name determines in what month the subsequent phases of activity will be scored. In other words, any named storm that comes into existence before 00z Sep 1 will count for August, anything that may have had a number then but no name will go for September if named in September (z time).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Although much of the convection with the disturbance is displaced to the north and east of the "center". We are getting some very heavy tropical rain bands here on the upper TX coast this morning. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=hgx&loop=yes

 

Galveston County is under an Urban and Small Steam Advisory this morning with 1-3 inches of rain in the next hour or two. Even if this isn't an official system it looks to be a prolific rain maker for most of coastal Texas.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The remnants of 97L are continuing to look better today, with persistent deep convection and hints of a weak low-level circulation. Shear is still high, courtesy of the upper-level low north of the Greater Antilles, but environmental conditions should favor additional development once this gets into the West Caribbean, and especially the Bay of Campeche.

 

XP4TH81.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like this will be one of the few times that there has not been a TD in the

Gulf Of Mexico or Bay of Campeche by the end of August. The Caribbean

wave wouldn't make it into the Bay of Campeche until September 1st.

 

 It looks like this will be the first time since 1991 that there hasn't been a named storm in the GoM (including the BoC) by 8/31! In that year, there ended up being no NS's in the GoM. Per the persistent GFS, it appears that the drought MAY break on 9/1-2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 It looks like this will be the first time since 1991 that there hasn't been a named storm in the GoM (including the BoC) by 8/31! In that year, there ended up being no NS's in the GoM. Per the persistent GFS, it appears that the drought MAY break on 9/1-2,

 

Yeah, we may have to go back to 1963 for no TD's in the Gulf or BOC by 8-31.

1991 featured 2 TD's and 1984 only 1. Cindy didn't form until 9-15-63.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The remnants of 97L are continuing to look better today, with persistent deep convection and hints of a weak low-level circulation. Shear is still high, courtesy of the upper-level low north of the Greater Antilles, but environmental conditions should favor additional development once this gets into the West Caribbean, and especially the Bay of Campeche.

 

XP4TH81.gif

Looks like some cyclonic spinning near 16N/71W

 

rb_lalo-animated.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS has had the SW GoM storm for like 20+ runs in a row, and all of them with a final destination near Tampico...probably no more than 50 miles between the most divergent solutions (although there have been some bigger timing discrepancies). That's the good thing about ridge steered disturbances in the deep tropics, more certainty. Now let's see if there's something to it, or if the Euro with it's weaker solution gets the cake.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like some cyclonic spinning near 16N/71W

 

 

I think the area to watch is farther west, south of jamaica, as that's where the best low level vorticity is, the mid level vorticity is around the coordinate you observed...it has been moving a little faster than forecasted, and the latest CMC latched to this, similar to the Euro, and are now faster and weaker than the GFS. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The TW around 15N 80W is coalescing with the energy in the SW Caribbean, which may spark a stronger low level vorticity.  This is creating a stronger low level convergence.

 

Meanwhile, in the upper levels, the ULL north of the Greater Antilles is still shearing the system, but it's losing it's grip as the TW moves west under the influence of the GoM mid/upper level ridge. It's currently in the border of these two features, hence the increased upper level divergence and increased convection. The ULL will help ventilate the TW.

 

It's a good setup for cyclogenesis, but there are a few cons. The TW is racing west...it should slow down a little, but probably not enough to give it time to organize into a TD prior to reaching the Yucatan. Land interaction may be an issue as part of the disturbance will scrap the Nern coast of Honduras.

 

The future of the disturbance in the GoM will boil down to how much organization it will have prior to the Yucatan. A TD or better would increase the chances greatly as it splashes into the GoM. The upper level conditions in the GoM should be good enough for gradual organization, with forecasted shear levels around 10-15 kts for most of the time it will be there. It will have approximately 48 hours over water in the GoM. If it can slow down a bit more, it would also improve it's chances to get stronger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A broad area of lower pressures and disorganized disturbed weather the NW Caribbean continues to slowly move WNW to NW this morning. The NHC has increased development chances slightly to 40% early next week when conditions may become more favorable for tropical development once it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday into Monday and enters the Bay of Campeche. The overnight ensembles are still rather well clustered near or just N of Tampico Tuesday into Wednesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A broad area of lower pressures and disorganized disturbed weather the NW Caribbean continues to slowly move WNW to NW this morning. The NHC has increased development chances slightly to 40% early next week when conditions may become more favorable for tropical development once it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday into Monday and enters the Bay of Campeche. The overnight ensembles are still rather well clustered near or just N of Tampico Tuesday into Wednesday.

The GFS in particular keeps pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche for a while, even after 99L makes it's way into Mexico.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS in particular keeps pressures lower in the Bay of Campeche for a while, even after 99L makes it's way into Mexico.

The ensembles have been suggesting the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf may well be the area to watch for any potential TC development in the medium to long range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CMC and GFS have trended weaker with 99L, while the Euro has gone stronger, completely reversing the previous depictions. Still, none of the three shows more than a TD/TS. WRT track, they have the same general path towards Tampico, with the CMC being farther north the Tamaulipas coast. 

 

I'll side with the TS camp, since BoC disturbances tend to overperform a bit, although they usually have no time to reach hurricane status unless there's a well organized structure when they enter the GoM. So, this will probably be no more than a rainmaker for the area around Tampico.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep, the ensembles and op lock into a pattern which favors W Carib, GoM disturbances for at least 2 weeks. We'll see if 99L is just the appetizer of what's to come.

I would watch pouch 023L as it has the looks of a pre tropical cyclone and has more convergence, better shear conditions, more moisture to work with, and I believe the models are out to lunch with pouch 023L just based on conditions alone. Pouch 023L may need to be watched closely in the lesser antilles by early next week as it could be more than models are showing at the moment but after that would still be unknown

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z TCGen probs went up rather high...

  *          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *           AL992014 08/30/14 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
TCGI (%)                                             52.7                                52.7

HDIV (x10-7s-1)  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0
VORT (x10-6s-1)   1.7   2.1   2.1   2.0   2.1   2.3   2.3   2.0   2.0   1.7   1.5   1.7   1.0
DV24 (x10-6s-1)   0.4   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.2  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.5   0.0  -0.5  -1.1  -0.9
VSHD (kt)          12    10    15    18    15    14    17    20    13    12     6    12    10
MLRH (%)           80    81    79    75    77    75    75    74    74    80    85    84    85
PCCD (%)           35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TNUM             1.00   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

LAT  (deg N)     17.1  17.6  18.1  18.6  19.1  19.9  20.7  21.2  21.7  21.9  22.4  23.0  23.8
LON  (deg W)     85.5  86.5  87.4  88.3  89.1  90.7  92.2  93.5  94.9  96.3  98.2 100.0 101.8
DTL  (km)         138   149    38   -36  -130    20   190   310   239   102   -28  -221  -409
TRACK SOURCE     BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG  BAMG

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) =  52.7 is  1.9 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) =  52.7 is  1.3 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ensembles are rather insistent on pressures continuing to fall across the SW Caribbean Sea into the Western Gulf in the medium range and beyond. In fact the pressure tendency (1008mb or less) in the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf is lower during the first 10 days or so than we have seen all season anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...