Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Very good model support now for 97L developing in about 5 days (GFS, NAVGEM, CMC). A lot of dry air ahead of it until then. Until the Euro comes on board, I'm not to gung ho about development. NAVGEM and CMC are just eye candy when it comes to the tropics...wouldn't trust them farther than I can throw them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 according to the models and looking at 97L dry air is the problem for the next 4 to 5 days but after that is when things improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Until the Euro comes on board, I'm not to gung ho about development. NAVGEM and CMC are just eye candy when it comes to the tropics...wouldn't trust them farther than I can throw them. You better hope it does not develop, the 500mb setup and analogs for this 97L scream landfalling TC. Looks like the GFS begins developing this wave around the Lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 You better hope it does not develop, the 500mb setup and analogs for this 97L scream landfalling TC. Looks like the GFS begins developing this wave around the Lesser Antilles. gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_18.png Looks like it deals with less than ideal conditions and shear from a ULL. The GFS shows a relatively weak system and dissipation by day 7. The pattern may be one for landfalling systems, but if the systems can't organize, then it's a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Looks like it deals with less than ideal conditions and shear from a ULL. The GFS shows a relatively weak system and dissipation by day 7. The pattern may be one for landfalling systems, but if the systems can't organize, then it's a moot point. Yes, however. It would be unwise to take the position of a ULL from 126 hours out with anything greater than a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Besides the monster tropical wave poised to move off the coast of Africa, the next place we need to look for development, in my opinion, is the western Caribbean and Western Gulf. Models have been lowering pressures down there for the past few runs and systems have traditionally be able to ramp up quickly in the Western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche. Should be interesting since the MJO should be favorable during that time frame. GFS and Euro have been consistent showing something down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Conditions are a bit more favorable across the SW Caribbean this weekend into the Western Gulf next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71A. 27/1600ZB. AFXXX 01FFA INVESTC. 27/1415ZD. 27.0N 96.0WE. 27/1530Z TO 27/1930ZF. SFC TO 10,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Now no model really develops 97L, and the African wave will very likely be a way out to sea fish. This is shaping up to be another rather blah season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The recent warming of the EPAC due to a strong Kelvin wave (trend toward ENSO warm) seems to be inducing more shear as we head into peak season. Models show the anticyclonic flow over the MDR that we've seen over the past couple of weeks being replaced by a persistent TUTT for most of early September. The GFS and the ECMWF basically show a sheared-out MDR (mid-ocean TUTT) through the entire forecast period. Then El Niño kicks in by mid-September, thereby shutting down the prospects of a late season. As far as I'm concerned this year is done, as I've laid out so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The recent warming of the EPAC due to a strong Kelvin wave (trend toward ENSO warm) seems to be inducing more shear as we head into peak season. Models show the anticyclonic flow over the MDR that we've seen over the past couple of weeks being replaced by a persistent TUTT for most of early September. The GFS and the ECMWF basically show a sheared-out MDR (mid-ocean TUTT) through the entire forecast period. Then El Niño kicks in by mid-September, thereby shutting down the prospects of a late season. As far as I'm concerned this year is done, as I've laid out so many times. You state that you've said it many times before, yet we have a soon to be Category 2 Hurricane named Cristobal churning just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 You state that you've said it many times before, yet we have a soon to be Category 2 Hurricane named Cristobal churning just off the coast. I also have my doubts about that African Wave fading away. That should be another cane, probably a fish tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 All of the models are pretty boring going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Should be interesting to see how this splashes... Could be one of the more impressive AEWs that we've seen in a while. 6z GFS EnKF Ensembles (Running @ T574) were pretty aggressive with the African low, which was pegged at around 1006mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I'm not wanting to cast but that looks like a fish before reaching T.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The recent warming of the EPAC due to a strong Kelvin wave (trend toward ENSO warm) seems to be inducing more shear as we head into peak season. Models show the anticyclonic flow over the MDR that we've seen over the past couple of weeks being replaced by a persistent TUTT for most of early September. The GFS and the ECMWF basically show a sheared-out MDR (mid-ocean TUTT) through the entire forecast period. Then El Niño kicks in by mid-September, thereby shutting down the prospects of a late season. As far as I'm concerned this year is done, as I've laid out so many times. Then I assume you will not be posting further on the subject, and will leave this thread to the amateurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Per reliable model consensus, it looks like 2014 will be the first season without a named storm in the GoM before 9/1 since 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The overnight reliable Euro and GEFS ensemble mean continues to advertise a disturbance will develop in the SW Caribbean Sea this weekend and generally move NW with TC genesis possible near the Yucatan Peninsula. The mean as well as the determistic models move this potential tropical system into the Western Gulf where Dolly may form next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 To clarify, it looks like it will likely take til at least 9/1 for the first named storm of the season to be in the Gulf per recent GFS runs. I was taking this threat into account when I brought up this subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The recent warming of the EPAC due to a strong Kelvin wave (trend toward ENSO warm) seems to be inducing more shear as we head into peak season. Models show the anticyclonic flow over the MDR that we've seen over the past couple of weeks being replaced by a persistent TUTT for most of early September. The GFS and the ECMWF basically show a sheared-out MDR (mid-ocean TUTT) through the entire forecast period. Then El Niño kicks in by mid-September, thereby shutting down the prospects of a late season. As far as I'm concerned this year is done, as I've laid out so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The overnight reliable Euro and GEFS ensemble mean continues to advertise a disturbance will develop in the SW Caribbean Sea this weekend and generally move NW with TC genesis possible near the Yucatan Peninsula. The mean as well as the determistic models move this potential tropical system into the Western Gulf where Dolly may form next week. I know this is looking far head, but with a digging trough the Euro is advertising, anything that does develop could have a potential path to the Gulf Coast. But this is just speculation this far out considering we don't have a system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 A tough go for the deep tropics so far this year as the dry air has spread even further north than last year. All the strongest Atlantic basin development has been north of the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Looks like if anything does form in the Caribbean, then it would come from the remnants of 97L. A few days ago, it looked like 97L was going to stay north of the Caribbean but now models have it trekking west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 We may see a TD today In the NW Gulf if RECON can close off a center. Radar and buoy data suggest convection and winds have tightened up quickly this morning. A general slowing has been observed and shear is beginning to relax slightly. It should be inland over NE Mexico/South Texas tomorrow before any further development can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 We may see a TD today In the NW Gulf if RECON can close off a center. Radar and buoy data suggest convection and winds have tightened up quickly this morning. A general slowing has been observed and shear is beginning to relax slightly. It should be inland over NE Mexico/South Texas tomorrow before any further development can occur. The latest ASCAT scan shows a lack of cyclonic winds on the SE quadrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 98L appears stalled which could help with some organization. Only caveat, it's under some moderate shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Although the ASCAT image shows that it's an elongated weak surface low, early vis imagery supports a better organized low on the verge of closing off. It's on the northern part of an anticyclone centered further south, but since the low is slowly moving SW, and the anticyclone is forecasted to move to the WNW, the shear will lower significantly before landfall. There's no much time though, so I wouldn't expect more than a TS tops. Edit: Also, that's an ASCAT from yesterday before noon...just old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The 12z GFS has gotten a little more interesting today with the system forecasted to emerge off the African coast over the next few days. It keeps the system weak through about Labor Day. A trough around 40W/40N is forecasted to create a weakness in the ridge and the system initially gains some lattitude. This trough is however forecasted to move out quickly enough that the ridge is able to build back overhead before the system reaches 20N. The problem on this run is the energy that comes in behind that initial trough. It's relatively weak but the GFS develops a gaping hole which allows the system to approach 25N. Eventually the trough coming out of SE Canada finishes the job and the system is quickly pulled north and eventually absorbed well OTS. That secondary piece of energy will be hard to forecast and could be a difference maker. Of course the longer that this takes to develop the better the odds this has of developing into something worthwhile. The 12z GFS slowed down development by about 36-48 hours over the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Several 12z GEFS members develop a TC and bring it into the SW Gulf during the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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