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Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

hurricaneman

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

Posted
Posted

Good match for the 1997 8/3/1

Just checked the Wiki, not a single August storm, 5 of those of non-tropical origin, and 1 of those being a post-season upgrade of a pre-season sub tropical storm. 39 days between named storms, Danny in July and Grace Erica in September.

We might get through 2014 with a single Atlantic hurricane forum.

Edit 2- Erika with a "k"...

1997 was actually a very favorable year in the Atlantic if there had not been a strong El Nino. SSTs were very much above normal, and the pressure/stability regime was favorable. That's why there was such a fast start to the year until El Nino's presence really began being felt in August. Really 1997 had at or more than it should have in such a strong El Nino event (compare to 1983).

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

Posted
Posted

Bust city coming for you guys if the ENSO is central or west-based. I think 2013 was a rogue year, trade wind speed and direction will need to be closely monitored as we move into Summer.

Additionally, for whatever reasons modoki el nino seasons seem to be more conductive for TC landfalls.

Wishful thinking. You should pay attention to the way this El Nino event is developing.

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Torchageddon

Torchageddon

Posted
Posted

Klotzbach/Gray came out with their April forecast for the Atlantic at 9/3/1.

I think that is too much. Considering the forecasts showing yet again another unfavorable stability/pressure regime for this year as well as a super El Nino developing...I would not be surprised to see a final storm count of around 5/1/0 if not less.

I thought at first you were going to say it was too much like too low and then a more pessimistic number was suggested! Its a good year to throw out some horrifyingly low guesses.

 

1 MH is definitely too bullish, but I think we could see more than 5 storms. Namewasters are a dime a dozen these days. Something like 7/2/0 sounds about right.

Throw-aways are really devaluing those NS totals recently. I hope no pesky namewasters form this season, if it is 0/0/0 than that would be cool. I would root for it since the fallout and reaction would be all the entertainment needed. A study on how likely that is would be a good read: which is more likely, 2005ish+ levels or 0/0/0 Atlantic season.

 

The chances of this El Nino being central or west-based is rapidly dwindling.

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Ground Scouring

Ground Scouring

Posted
Posted

1 MH is definitely too bullish, but I think we could see more than 5 storms. Namewasters are a dime a dozen these days. Something like 7/2/0 sounds about right.

I actually think that about 10-12 named storms are very conceivable--unless we see a much stronger Niño than forecasted. And the chance of a moderate or strong Niño is still questionable given that the current slope of the thermocline, while decreasing, is much higher than for several of the past moderate or strong Niños. Furthermore, I do not think that the early model performance re: ENSO has been so great over the past three seasons, especially re: the evolution of the most recent two Niñas (2010-2011 and 2011-2012). I do think we'll get El Niño this time but I'll need to see stronger atmospheric signals before deciding on a stronger event. Right now I'm leaning toward a weak event, which could keep numbers up a bit this Atlantic season, but this assessment may well change over time.

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thewxmann

thewxmann

Posted
Posted

I actually think that about 10-12 named storms are very conceivable--unless we see a much stronger Niño than forecasted. And the chance of a moderate or strong Niño is still questionable given that the current slope of the thermocline, while decreasing, is much higher than for several of the past moderate or strong Niños. Furthermore, I do not think that the early model performance re: ENSO has been so great over the past three seasons, especially re: the evolution of the most recent two Niñas (2010-2011 and 2011-2012). I do think we'll get El Niño this time but I'll need to see stronger atmospheric signals before deciding on a stronger event. Right now I'm leaning toward a weak event, which could keep numbers up a bit this Atlantic season, but this assessment may well change over time.

 

Nino or not, the atmospheric instability and SST's in the Atlantic are still unfavorable for TC activity. It's like last year's bad conditions on steroids -- everything is actually against TC development in the Atlantic basin this year.

 

However, you could still be right about 10-12 NS, just that none of them would ever dream of having a solid inner core, like real storms would.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Just saw this on Facebook. Thought it would interest some of you.

 

New features added!

- Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
- Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA)

Updated daily.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic

Note: "Anomaly" is the temperature difference from the daily average over the period 1981-2011. It shows how far the temperature is from the average for that day over a 30 year period.

Data comes from the Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch of the Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, National Weather Service.
10172666_1467886840111708_72584968045844
10175007_1467886856778373_21999049727506
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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

I didn't think the previous 0Z 16 day Euro ensemble control run 1 inch in over 2 weeks could get more depressing, the latest 0Z Euro ensemble control run has 16 day rainfall totals for Houston of a quarter inch.

Not as warm as 2011 yet, but everything IS going to die and catch fire at this rate.

 

One thing I don't know, the 4 non-tropical origin systems June/July 1997 before the season ended, was that because 1997 was going to be an awesome year, and then the hyper-warm ENSO killed it, (that won't be the case this year) or does a hyper-warm ENSO favor non-tropical systems.

 

I suspect if we don't have a few non-tropical developments the few surviving pines in Memorial Park will die and someplace in Southeast Texas (probably not Bastrop, their fuel was burned in 2011) will probably have massive forest fires.

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

I didn't think the previous 0Z 16 day Euro ensemble control run 1 inch in over 2 weeks could get more depressing, the latest 0Z Euro ensemble control run has 16 day rainfall totals for Houston of a quarter inch.

Not as warm as 2011 yet, but everything IS going to die and catch fire at this rate.

 

One thing I don't know, the 4 non-tropical origin systems June/July 1997 before the season ended, was that because 1997 was going to be an awesome year, and then the hyper-warm ENSO killed it, (that won't be the case this year) or does a hyper-warm ENSO favor non-tropical systems.

 

I suspect if we don't have a few non-tropical developments the few surviving pines in Memorial Park will die and someplace in Southeast Texas (probably not Bastrop, their fuel was burned in 2011) will probably have massive forest fires.

 

I've heard that El Nino conditions can favor early-season PV-breakoff and tropical transition TC events, but not something I've looked much into myself. 

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

I think this is ok, because this thread probably won't reach 50 pages this entire season.

 

I was looping the NAMER GFS, to see where the possible half inch total for the entire 16 days in SETX was going to come from on May 8 and May 9th, and my eyes were drawn to the Caribbean.  I wanted to be the first to post a 15 day fantasy GFS storm.  PW suggests dry air issues on the Western side, winds suggest barely a depression, but this is the first fantasy range TC of 2014.

 

And there are a few 1004 mb or below systems in the Caribbean then per 12Z spaghetti.

:weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:

post-138-0-33235600-1398458601_thumb.gif

post-138-0-11153400-1398458618_thumb.gif

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

I think this is ok, because this thread probably won't reach 50 pages this entire season.

I was looping the NAMER GFS, to see where the possible half inch total for the entire 16 days in SETX was going to come from on May 8 and May 9th, and my eyes were drawn to the Caribbean. I wanted to be the first to post a 15 day fantasy GFS storm. PW suggests dry air issues on the Western side, winds suggest barely a depression, but this is the first fantasy range TC of 2014.

And there are a few 1004 mb or below systems in the Caribbean then per 12Z spaghetti.

:weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie:

The 06 GFS had a full fleged cane into Cuba ☺️
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wxtrackercody

wxtrackercody

Posted
Posted

The GFS has started its annual tradition of spinning up ghost cyclones in the long range that it will push back or completely drop until early June. A strong MJO pulse should progress into octants 8/1 over the next two weeks, but development, if any, would be far more likely to occur in the East Pacific than the Atlantic.

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted

Why will the data be blacked out?

 

Media and Forums like ours are leaking out the files to twitter and the like before the NHC makes it "offical". To be honest, the ATCF file is preliminary and sometimes the NHC does not follow through with it. They just want to put the kabash on the early leaks completely I guess.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

I assume this will apply to NRL as well?  (Another source, sometimes, that a system has been upgraded, before it becomes official).

 

Will they hide the initialization data on SHIPS from us because we could deduce what the system strength is from that?

 

The government has a need to keep some things classified, diplomatic, intelligence and defense related things, but now the weather is too dangerous for the tax paying public to know about 20 minutes before it becomes official?

 

 

On an unrelated topic, not sure whether it is the hint of a spin in the low clouds approaching 50ºW or the frontal band, but 18Z GFS starts trying to develop something tropical looking North of Puerto Rico in 4 days, and doesn't quite develop an actual TC/STC by day 8 around Florida/Bahamas.

 

Not expecting much...

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Floydbuster

Floydbuster

Posted
Posted

2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008 were all so intense (and in weather nerd terms exciting) that after 4/5 hurricane seasons like that, nothing in the last five hurricane seasons can compare.

 

Sure, we had Cat 4 Earl rattle some nerves in 2010 and a bunch of Mexico activity with Karl and then late season Paula and Rina spinning in the NW Caribbean, but nothing to note. 2011 saw Irene but just a Cat 1 U.S. landfall, 2012 saw Sandy but that was an unusual and unique system and other than that Isaac was a constant tilted TS/Cat 1 that sloshed ashore and Ernesto was a run of the mill Cat 2 into MX.

 

Of course 2009 and last year saw nothing.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Re: GFS and CMC.  If the 26º SST isotherm extended North of the Georgia coast, I still wouldn't believe the CMC in mid May.

I assume this will apply to NRL as well?  (Another source, sometimes, that a system has been upgraded, before it becomes official).

 

Will they hide the initialization data on SHIPS from us because we could deduce what the system strength is from that?

 

The government has a need to keep some things classified, diplomatic, intelligence and defense related things, but now the weather is too dangerous for the tax paying public to know about 20 minutes before it becomes official?

 

 

On an unrelated topic, not sure whether it is the hint of a spin in the low clouds approaching 50ºW or the frontal band, but 18Z GFS starts trying to develop something tropical looking North of Puerto Rico in 4 days, and doesn't quite develop an actual TC/STC by day 8 around Florida/Bahamas.

 

Not expecting much...

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Re: GFS and CMC.  If the 26º SST isotherm extended North of the Georgia coast, I still wouldn't believe the CMC in mid May.

FWIW the 12z ECMWF sort of has the same general idea as the GGEM. But it's more of a non tropical low or sub-tropical low that gets absorbed by the LLJ with a cut off ULL over the mid-atlantic.

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