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Atlantic Tropical Action 2014


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You can see how difficult it has been to get a hurricane in Florida since Wilma in 2005.

 

 

attachicon.gifc553bc41-87d7-423f-95e3-0d4897ed75ae_320x180.jpg

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/florida-hurricane-free-streak-luck-run-out-20140801

 

 

Heading in to the heart of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, it is interesting to note that it has been 8 years, 9 months and 1 week, or 3,200 days, since a hurricane has made landfall in Florida.

This is the longest stretch of consecutive years since 1851 that no hurricanes have hit the state. The longest hurricane-free streak prior to this one was five consecutive seasons from 1980 to 1984.

This is impressive, considering the coastline of Florida spans more than 1,260 miles from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Ocean, and an average of 8 hurricanes have formed each year since 2005.

Obviously a climate connection here. Would be nice to have more research on this phenomenon.

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Just checking the latest GFS, which is now out to 180 hours.  It emerges quite a strong wave next Friday/Saturday and develops it quickly (one thing I have trouble believing due to the large swath of dry air).  It gains quick latitude and looks like a fish storm from the get go.  It's already approaching 20 N by the time it's hitting 30W by 192 hours.  .  

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Obviously a climate connection here. Would be nice to have more research on this phenomenon.

 

The increased dry air is probably related to the change in the Hadley circulation that was discussed in a recent paper.

They have an interesting thesis on the weaker temperature gradient between the tropics and midlatitudes.

 

http://www.oriadam.info/oriadam/HCW_Expansion_2014.pdf

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Regardless of 97L, I'm more interested in the stalled front across the Gulf of Mexico. Most global models suggest an area of low pressure will try to get going as it heads towards the Texas coastline. With an upper-level low backing southwest out of the Bay of Campeche, we should see an anticyclone balloon across the region. Sneaky storm?

 

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Regardless of 97L, I'm more interested in the stalled front across the Gulf of Mexico. Most global models suggest an area of low pressure will try to get going as it heads towards the Texas coastline. With an upper-level low backing southwest out of the Bay of Campeche, we should see an anticyclone balloon across the region. Sneaky storm?

 

 

Agree. The WSI RPM model actually forms a small circulation with TS winds near the TX coast in about 72 hours. Bears at least keeping an eye on.

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12z GFS makes things interesting for 97L. Keep in mind it does keep the LP weak and it takes a while to get going but we shouldn't pay attention to intensity this far out. Path OTS is blocked by potent storm that exits western African coast.

 

A lot can (and will) change, but still something to keep in mind.

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12z GFS makes things interesting for 97L. Keep in mind it does keep the LP weak and it takes a while to get going but we shouldn't pay attention to intensity this far out. Path OTS is blocked by potent storm that exits western African coast.

 

A lot can (and will) change, but still something to keep in mind.

The Euro doesn't do much with 97L (it's the vorticity near the Florida Keys), but it shows a separate entity developing from the Caribbean moving into the Gulf and affecting Texas sometime next week.  Just another place to keep an eye on, although the Caribbean has been very hostile this year.  

 

f216.gif

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The Euro doesn't do much with 97L (it's the vorticity near the Florida Keys), but it shows a separate entity developing from the Caribbean moving into the Gulf and affecting Texas sometime next week.  Just another place to keep an eye on, although the Caribbean has been very hostile this year.  

 

f216.gif

Surprised it took people that long to post it. The GGEM and EURO show a storm. The GEFS wait until day 10 to try to spin up a weak storm.

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. A tropical wave is forecast to move from western Africa into the

far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean by early this weekend.

Conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter

while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

 

 
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ScreenHunter_87Aug252003.png
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A quick look at the next 6 to 14 days is suggesting lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as Hurricane Cristobal exits to the NE into the N Atlantic and the Bermuda Ridge builds back into the East Coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The longer range ensemble guidance is already suggesting the potential for tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and moving generally NW into the Western Gulf in the first 10 days or so of September. These waters are virtually untouched with plenty of warm water with little to no shear and favorable instability. Nothing is forming at this time, but something to monitor as we begin the month of September and reach the peak of tropical development potential in the Atlantic Basin.

 

latest72hrs.gif

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NHC lowered the chances of formation for 97L.  

 

A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

NHC is very bullish on the wave about to emerge from Africa.  Looks like a fish from the get go, but could pose a problem to the Azores if it recurves faster than anticipated.  

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Early morning I km Rapid Scan Visible imagery and buoy day offshore of Louisiana suggest a weak surface low may be developing SSE of Morgan City, LA. Surface winds are light out of the SE to SSE E of Houma and further W in Morgan City to Vermillion Bay, NE surface winds are observed.

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