N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There appears to me to be somewhat of a rotation near 21.3 72.3 as of 1715 on visible, thou I realize recon has not identified a LLC http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html THE TCHP (near) Bahamas is not something I would describe as "bearish" for a storm to slow to a crawl under http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2014233at.jpg more like rocket fuel. TCHP drops pretty substantially just to the NE of the Bahama Chain as you can see. The size would definitely seem the biggest "con" for this to wind up into a stronger "system", the slow movement I think would simply give it more Time over very high TCHP waters, esp IF IF IF it took a more southern route. I would wonder how long it would take for upwelling to be a concern near Andros island with the depth of those water temps, never heard that mentioned living in S FL. Of course to the NE of Bahamas is where i could see that as a hindrance over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There appears to me to be somewhat of a rotation near 21.3 72.3 as of 1715 on visible, thou I realize recon has not identified a LLC http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html THE TCHP (near) Bahamas and especially is not something I would wish a hurricane to slow to a crawl under http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2014233at.jpg See a bit of a center just north of the Northwest Corner of Hispaniola. Some lee cyclogenesis maybe assisting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Still a ton of uncertainty. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble has ~10% of members making it into the Gulf, ~20% making an eastern FL/GA/SC landfall, and the rest are OTS. I'm not even going to begin speculating on intensity yet until we've narrowed down track at least slightly, but I agree with GaWx that the systems current large size, it could take a while to tighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There appears to me to be somewhat of a rotation near 21.3 72.3 as of 1715 on visible, thou I realize recon has not identified a LLC That's what I have been following. It's weak, but it's as much of a central vortex as this thing has at the moment. It's about to pass over Turks & Caicos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 That's what I have been following. It's weak, but it's as much of a central vortex as this thing has at the moment. It's about to pass over Turks & Caicos. wx underground has a number of reporting stations in that area http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IPROVIDE12#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Recon finally found some west winds near 21.3N and 72.1W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There is a noticeable swirl in the Turks and Caicos area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There is a noticeable swirl in the Turks and Caicos area. I think that's going to become the main center. It's in the same area that the easterly guidance picks up on a center. That makes recurvature offshore virtually certain if it becomes the main center (NE of Great Inagua). Voritcity is increasing in the area and some convection is firing just east of the swirl. The swirl also appears to be heading NW, as the FIM9 indicates. Given its small size and low environmental shear, an LLC could spin up rather quickly. Models have also been trending weaker with the ridge over the Southeast in two days. Everything points to a recurve, including the 12Z ECMWF now coming in. Again, this is just extrapolation based on satellite trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 EasternUSWx it is now appearing more on that loop you posted.. Looks like that little spin will pass within 10 miles of this Wunderground reporting station (South shore on Turtle Tail) that i linked in last post. Barometric pressure as of 2:49 p.m is 29.73 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I think that's going to become the main center. It's in the same area that the easterly guidance picks up on a center. That makes recurvature offshore virtually certain if it becomes the main center (NE of Great Inagua). Voritcity is increasing in the area and some convection is firing just east of the swirl. The swirl also appears to be heading NW, as the FIM9 indicates. Given its small size and low environmental shear, an LLC could spin up rather quickly. Models have also been trending weaker with the ridge over the Southeast in two days. Everything points to a recurve, including the 12Z ECMWF now coming in. Again, this is just extrapolation based on satellite trends. Only one issue I have here, and that is that pretty much all guidance has the LP passing through the current location, regardless of OTS or Re-curve outcome. Just my own 2 cents, but I believe this curves OTS as well unless speed/strength drastically changes. Still 100+ hours out though so anything can happen I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Only one issue I have here, and that is that pretty much all guidance has the LP passing through the current location, regardless of OTS or Re-curve outcome. Guidance that takes this OTS start moving it north quickly while hits come west more across the Bahamas. Will have to see it's movement today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Guidance that takes this OTS start moving it north quickly while hits come west more across the Bahamas. Will have to see it's movement today/tonight. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The Euro and most of its ensembles are not a threat to land. With the GFDl and HWRF moving left along with the GFS, there might be some model prestige is on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The early 18z guidance is in and appear to be centered on a track into the western Bahamas with a close pass to Florida and or other parts of the southeast coast still possible. While a track into the Gulf of Mexico is becoming less likely, a very large spread continues amongst the ensemble members and individual spaghetti tropical guidance. Anyone from Miami Beach to Nova Scotia should still keep an eye on this one. As I type this the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is still coming in. By hour 72 the ensemble mean is centered SW of the operational and by 78 hours the difference is quite noticeable. By 84 hours the ensemble mean is knocking on the door of southeast FL while the operational run was well northeast of that position at the same hour. After reviewing the ECMWF ensembles and the latest hurricane spaghetti models, I don't see how any competent forecaster could say that a track out to sea with minimal impacts to land is overwhelmingly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Per HPC afternoon discussion, NHC is going with the more southwest solutions. REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AFFECTING U.S...COORDINATION WITH THE NHC RESULTED IN A BLEND OF FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THAT BRINGS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY DAYS 5-6/THU-FRI BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THE BLEND RESULTED FROM EXCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN AND SOME NORTHERN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM STRONG CONSIDERATION DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE THEIR RESPECTIVE SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE PATTERNS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS PARTICULARLY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOLUTIONS USED TO BLEND WITH CONTINUITY INCLUDED THE 06Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS/SOME SOUTHWESTERN MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Anyone have a peek at Euro Ens circa Mon/Tues position edit Euro Ens are elongated from SE GOM to NE of florida for Wed 12z and appear noticeable SW of OP at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 96 hr ECMWF ensemble members. The 12z mean is pretty far west with track from MIA to near Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Wow! thanks for the ensembles. At 96 hrs is seems obviious that it is either going to rocket stage right or linger around Fla and do ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 96 hr ECMWF ensemble members. The 12z mean is pretty far west with track from MIA to near Pensacola. Thanks for posting... compare that to the 12z GFS ensembles. Still appears to be a pretty substantial amount of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 96L is finally starting to wrap up nicely just NW of Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands. You can see convection firing over the low-level swirl as an UL anticyclone wedges over the top of the system, providing favorable divergence aloft in the ascent region. This favors more convection firing over the likely center and may indicate that we'll have Cristóbal later tonight. As I have mentioned, the stronger intensity in the region matches the HWRF's and the GFDL's solution. These two models take 96L/future Cristóbal OTS, given that a stronger system would feel the weakness to its NW. The weaker ECMWF ensembles take the system under the ridge as it misses the trough. Currently trends favor the OTS solution, as I have been consistently arguing. Reconnaissance tomorrow will definitely find a solid TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Thanks for posting... compare that to the 12z GFS ensembles. Still appears to be a pretty substantial amount of uncertainty. Looks like it's FL or OTS. There are no members over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Looks like we have TD #4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 New Thread for TD#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The GFS for a couple of runs now has a wave developing quickly once it emerges from Africa in six days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I miss storms like this in the Caribbean. That's not in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Right. I just meant the Atlantic in general but, closer to the Lesser Antilles. The Lesser Antilles aren't very close at all to Isabel in that shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The Lesser Antilles aren't very close at all to Isabel in that shot. Southeast. Point was we haven't seen many well developed storms the past few years. A few but, this African dust has been killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Cristobal continues the pattern of storm development being hindered while over the Tropical Atlantic and strengthening north of the Caribbean due to the drier and more stable air out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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