phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Phil is there confidence in the overall Size of this circulation come Sunday, I.E small(compact) or larger circulation. Well The system is already fairly large in size, and if the storm undergoes a substantial trough interaction (the further north and east solutions) the storm will likely only grow its wind field further. Most of the deterministic guidance I've seen keeps this as a fairly large tropical cyclone and I'd be inclined to agree barring any substantial environmental changes. Another point is there is some increasing southwesterly shear across the Central Caribbean in the wake of EPAC TS Marie exiting off to the WNW. Hispaniola is notorious for creating havoc when we have a disorganized disturbance tracking just N of the Coast. Where this disturbance exits and how close to Andros Island in the Southern Bahamas it actually ends up, will have significant impacts on where it will track and likely more westerly as it misses the trough. If we see the disturbance slip NW after passing Haiti toward the Turks and Caicos or further E, then the re-curve scenario would be favored. The faster track since yesterday has likely led to some of the shifts seen in some of the guidance. If this survives its encounter with Hispaniola, then a slow process of strengthening is possible. This part of the world is tricky to forecast. We can look back to 2005 and see some similarities with Rita for example. That's a good point. It looks like the GFS though has had a reasonable handle on the southwesterly flow in the Caribbean related to Marie. On the other hand, the GFS thought 96L would be a good 5 degrees south and east of where the current broad low level circulation is right now http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082218/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl_comp0.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 18z NAVGEM is interesting... What the...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The Canadian and NAVGEM are typically for entertainment purposes only when looking at the Tropics. 00Z early tracks and intensity guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014082218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl.html This is a fun animation of the 18z GEFS forecast normalized spread with MSLP minima overlaid (roughly where you would expect the position of future 96L to be in the ensemble members). Three distinct camps oriented from southwest to northeast appear to emerge by 96 hours. The first camp is the furthest northeast just west of Bermuda (early and full capture of mid-latitude trough). The second camp doesn't make it as far northeast is in between the Bahamas and Bermuda (delayed or partial capture of mid-latitude trough). The final group is the one most of us have been focusing on because it maintains 96L on a slow wnw heading towards Florida and the southeastern coastline (trough does not produce large enough weakness to capture system). While the GEFS still suggests the majority of its members are northeast of the deterministic run, keep in mind the ECMWF had more even spread with its ensemble members from southwest to northeast. Alot of the northern members are also suggesting 96L doesn't make it much beyond the longitude of Hispaniola before it starts moving significantly northward. Thus the short term forecast is quite important for this particular system, especially since the llc isn't well defined yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Remember Debby 2000...Hispaniola could do some weird things to the center, pulling the southern vortex into land (via orographic effects) and stretching vorticity from NE to SW. If that's the case, then 96L may slow down in the next 24 hours, allowing it to reform its center farther north, deepen more, and feel the trough to its north--a situation favoring recurvature. Tonight's 00Z ECMWF is the most important model to watch. If it holds with its path, then recurve off the East Coast is practically certain. If the southern vortex were to hold and continue WNW over the next 24 hours, then a hit in southern FL would be more probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Remember Debby 2000...Hispaniola could do some weird things to the center, pulling the southern vortex into land (via orographic effects) and stretching vorticity from NE to SW. If that's the case, then 96L may slow down in the next 24 hours, allowing it to reform its center farther north, deepen more, and feel the trough to its north--a situation favoring recurvature. Tonight's 00Z ECMWF is the most important model to watch. If it holds with its path, then recurve off the East Coast is practically certain. I don't know how you can say that with certainty based upon one model especially with the models trending to the left through the day today and the system's quick forward momentum to the WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Remember Debby 2000...Hispaniola could do some weird things to the center, pulling the southern vortex into land (via orographic effects) and stretching vorticity from NE to SW. If that's the case, then 96L may slow down in the next 24 hours, allowing it to reform its center farther north, deepen more, and feel the trough to its north--a situation favoring recurvature. Tonight's 00Z ECMWF is the most important model to watch. If it holds with its path, then recurve off the East Coast is practically certain. Don't understand this post at all. The significant spread among the ECM ENS members indicates a low confidence forecast in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Seems like the system is parking itself over Hispaniola right now. Maybe the slow down can get this thing going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Seems like the system is parking itself over Hispaniola right now. Maybe the slow down can get this thing going. Ideally it would pass to the north of Hispanola though (which it seems to be doing currently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Models can't really cope with global weirding, ( http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/global_weirding ) The appearance of what is actually out there seems to show that it will drift west; once it is far enough west it can't exactly (re)curve ; it will depend if the ULL and trough entering the Pacific northwest part of the continent can move past the weeks-old stagnant Gulf block (that is the cause of bringing up the "global weirding" concept.) It will be easier to see a possible course in the morning, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 00z GFS is rolling in... looks similar to 18z so far (though 48 hours) with more mid-level ridging and a upper-level trough that is just a shade less amplified offshore of the US. The 500 hPa vortex is further north initially than 18z though. The plot thickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I think at this point we can rule out the FL scenario; the CMC and NAVGEM can't BOTH be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I think at this point we can rule out the FL scenario; the CMC and NAVGEM can't BOTH be right. Or we can not do that to be smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The intensity is way off on 00z GFS. With that upper level environment to work with and very warm SST's this system should be exploding. It's north of 18z but way west of 12z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Or we can not do that to be smart. Tongue in cheek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The intensity is way off on 00z GFS. With that upper level environment to work with and very warm SST's this system should be exploding. It's north of 18z but way west of 12z and 06z. The intensity on the 00z is significantly stronger than what the 18z was showing so it's a step in the right direction. Perhaps the 00z track further north is a result of a stronger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The intensity on the 00z is significantly stronger than what the 18z was showing so it's a step in the right direction. Perhaps the 00z track further north is a result of a stronger solution. Here we are at day 5... the next trough is starting to dig into the the midwest, and there is only weak anticyclonic flow to the north of 96L at this point with a stronger mid-level ridge to its east steering it northward. Close but no cigar here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Wow track changed a lot, however dry air and northerly shear is going to give it a rough time, GFS has a 1002mb low at 84hrs, not very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Wow track changed a lot, however dry air and northerly shear is going to give it a rough time, GFS has a 1002mb low at 84hrs, not very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Models can't really cope with global weirding, ( http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/global_weirding ) I'd say "global weirding" is the dumbest term/concept I've ever heard of (unsurprising coming from a laughable hack like Friedman) were it not for the even sillier idea that models can't cope with it. Model tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy has steadily improved for the last 30 years. There is nothing more utterly routine than 96L and it's track forecast uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Looks like it made a sharp right turn after 84. Looks like a solid CAT1 on that map though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Looks like it made a sharp right turn after 84. Looks like a solid CAT1 on that map though. Pretty weak kicker, that cold front will change in timing and amplitude this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 This run is close to being a disaster if this gets any farther west or the ridge nudges a little farther out so its something to keep an eye on from Florida to Nova Scotia to Bermuda maybe even the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Pretty substantial shift in the 00z GFS ensembles... very few early recurving members, most siding close to what the GFS was suggesting. Again the GFS ensemble is underdispersive so its likely not capturing the full PDF of solutions possible with 96L, but still the leftward shift and decrease in spread is notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The intensity is way off on 00z GFS. With that upper level environment to work with and very warm SST's this system should be exploding. It's north of 18z but way west of 12z and 06z. Can you post a link ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 0Z Euro is still OTS but further west compared to 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 0Z Euro is still OTS but further west compared to 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Fwiw nhc area discussion for key west, miami , and Melbourne write this off . I just went thru them all and i think Jacksonville is only one to even mention slight track uncertainty. Miami disco updated to include a bit of uncertainty regarding the track of the tropical entity, Melbourne still writes it off. Seems like those people writing them didn't find it significant to highlight the uncertainty of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 If this does happen to turn west or meander near Florida, it could be quite a potent hurricane. I'm not talking an Andrew, but remember what Katrina did to South Florida at 80 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Miami disco updated to include a bit of uncertainty regarding the track of the tropical entity, Melbourne still writes it off. Seems like those people writing them didn't find it significant to highlight the uncertainty of the ensembles. They both mention uncertainty MLB: NOTE: FCST WILL HINGE ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SIG CHANGES. MIA: BUT IF THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONG ENOUGH AND THE TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST THEN A WESTWARD SHIFT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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