Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 It's about 12 hours or so ahead of where models yesterday had it. This continues to race WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 It's about 12 hours or so ahead of where models yesterday had it. This continues to race WNW. Apparently it changed the overall 500mb setup on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 18z GFS looks like a completely different track now maintaining its westward movement towards southern FL. 00z will be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Apparently it changed the overall 500mb setup on the 18z GFS. Also a Florida hit at hour 108 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Also a Florida hit at hour 108 now. Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however.Gotta take intensity at this point with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however. But it's in a nice col region in the ~48 hours before landfall, and shear is quite low. Given that the system will be in a moist environment in the short term and is already producing strong winds just above the surface, any increase in organization could be quite rapid in the Bahamas. Assuming that the track on the GFS occurs, is my logic correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 But it's in a nice col region in the ~48 hours before landfall, and shear is quite low. Given that the system will be in a moist environment and is already producing strong winds just above the surface, any increase in organization could be quite rapid in the Bahamas. Assuming that the track on the GFS occurs, is my logic correct? Yes, I just wonder if the GFS is understimating the strength significantly, would that also not effect the corresponding track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Gotta take intensity at this point with a grain of salt. And we can't forget that it's also the 18z GFS which has been the most inaccurate/inconsistent model throughout the period of this Invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 It might try for a Phase as it is off the SE GA coast at hour 147 and staring to get a tad stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The setup into the mid-range looks like Arthur, displaced westward. Cristobal would no doubt ride the entire East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The setup into the mid-range looks like Arthur, displaced westward. Cristobal would no doubt ride the entire East Coast. Yeah and if it can get a good phase it might be rather interesting. That is a Big IF though. For all we know 00z could go even more west or back to OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yeah and if it can get a good phase it might be rather interesting. That is a Big IF though. For all we know 00z could go even more west or back to OTS Partial phase at Hr. 180. The wavelengths are not quite sharp enough due to the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Partial phase at Hr. 180. The wavelengths are not quite sharp enough due to the time of year. NATL_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_180.gif Where would the phase bring this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Where would the phase bring this storm? Into the NE or Nova Scotia, depends on the timing. We should wait to see if there is any support from the Euro and GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Fwiw nhc area discussion for key west, miami , and Melbourne write this off . I just went thru them all and i think Jacksonville is only one to even mention slight track uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 18z NAVGEM is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Could this be Sandy II for New Jersey ? I think that is one of the two open wave centers. I do not see any thing that indicates that there is a closed circulation at the 65W 16N area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 18z NAVGEM is interesting... And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest. The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest. The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location? I don't believe I've seen anyone wishcasting over the past 10 pages to be honest. I don't see any harm in posting model results when you are 120-144 hours away from an event. If anything it will be a learning process of how much things can, and have changed. If the models can speculate, and that is exactly what they've been doing, I don't see any harm in members also speculating IF it is backed up through some logic. Just my 2 cents though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest. The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location? Hold up slick...nothing wrong with looking at the NAVGEM, it had a big upgrade last year, higher resolution. That run did back up what the 18z GFS showed, just something else to look at. Your silly post is what causes threads to go haywire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Just to illustrate this. Ensembles are still very much all over the place. Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles... again good luck trying to forecast with any degree of certainty beyond 48 hours. This is one of those marginal solutions that if 96L moves just a little further west than forecast the first 24-48 hours, it can get under the building ridge over the central-eastern US and fail to get picked up by the trough. It seems the ECMWF are pretty much 50-50 on the trough capturing the system. If it misses, the chance of east coast landfall go up quite a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 looks like about a few more GFS ensemble members hit Florida at 18z, instead of just one at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however. Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however. Moving WNW under a ridge over high heat content water around the Bahamas (and 30-31 c sst)......that's how Andrew and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane bombed out. While I'd never forecast anything that extreme.....not from a system this disorganized, IF the 18z GFS and 12z CMC are correct, a major hurricane intensifying rapidly at landfall wouldn't surprise me. Cleo almost made it too cat-3 in late August 1964 just in the 18 hours it took too cross from Cuba to Miami. Right now I rate the odds better than 50/50 it recurves, but if it doesn't.....someone is likely in for a world of hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest. The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location? Some models are obviously more skilled than others and should be weighted accordingly but with this potentially being within 4 or 5 days of a U.S. landfall and having a wide spread in outcomes, there's no harm in looking at as much data as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles... again good luck trying to forecast with any degree of certainty beyond 48 hours. This is one of those marginal solutions that if 96L moves just a little further west than forecast the first 24-48 hours, it can get under the building ridge over the central-eastern US and fail to get picked up by the trough. It seems the ECMWF are pretty much 50-50 on the trough capturing the system. If it misses, the chance of east coast landfall go up quite a bit! Phil is there confidence in the overall Size of this circulation come Sunday, I.E small(compact) or larger circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles... again good luck trying to forecast with any degree of certainty beyond 48 hours. This is one of those marginal solutions that if 96L moves just a little further west than forecast the first 24-48 hours, it can get under the building ridge over the central-eastern US and fail to get picked up by the trough. It seems the ECMWF are pretty much 50-50 on the trough capturing the system. If it misses, the chance of east coast landfall go up quite a bit! Another point is there is some increasing southwesterly shear across the Central Caribbean in the wake of EPAC TS Marie exiting off to the WNW. Hispaniola is notorious for creating havoc when we have a disorganized disturbance tracking just N of the Coast. Where this disturbance exits and how close to Andros Island in the Southern Bahamas it actually ends up, will have significant impacts on where it will track and likely more westerly as it misses the trough. If we see the disturbance slip NW after passing Haiti toward the Turks and Caicos or further E, then the re-curve scenario would be favored. The faster track since yesterday has likely led to some of the shifts seen in some of the guidance. If this survives its encounter with Hispaniola, then a slow process of strengthening is possible. This part of the world is tricky to forecast. We can look back to 2005 and see some similarities with Rita for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Another point is there is some increasing southwesterly shear across the Central Caribbean in the wake of EPAC TS Marie exiting off to the WNW. Hispaniola is notorious for creating havoc when we have a disorganized disturbance tracking just N of the Coast. Where this disturbance exits and how close to Andros Island in the Southern Bahamas it actually ends up, will have significant impacts on where it will track and likely more westerly as it misses the trough. If we see the disturbance slip NW after passing Haiti toward the Turks and Caicos or further E, then the re-curve scenario would be favored. The faster track since yesterday has likely led to some of the shifts seen in some of the guidance. If this survives its encounter with Hispaniola, then a slow process of strengthening is possible. This part of the world is tricky to forecast. We can look back to 2005 and see some similarities with Rita for example. Looks like the shear is helping to ventilate the storm to the North and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Pretty significant shift on the 18z HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Maybe I am just talking out of my ass, but won't the models be all over the place (as they are now) until a well defined center of circulation develops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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