stormspotterlive Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The GFS is still way out to sea with this one. Also has outrageous convection well NE of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Also has outrageous convection well NE of the system. I would throw this run out. Not because it doesn't show what I want, but b/c it blows up a secondary low northeast of the hurricane center. Just makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Also has outrageous convection well NE of the system. That's the main reason why it shows an out to sea solution. The LLC follows the heaviest convection. We've seen it before like with Debby in 2012 where the center kept reforming NE following the heaviest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 12z GGEM is still going with landfall near Miami, FL on day 4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Looking at these always gives me a chuckle. Why the hell do they continue to include the LBAR? It is always completely out in left field. Also, are some of these not the 06z runs such as the HWRF and GFDL? HWRF went further east on the 6z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 HWRF went further east on the 6z run: slp20.png I understand that, but that shift east is from the 00z run to the 06z run. The map in question is listed as 12z guidance and I am just wondering why they include 06z model runs on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 I understand that, but that shift east is from the 00z run to the 06z run. The map in question is listed as 12z guidance and I am just wondering why they include 06z model runs on that map. This information is readily available not the NHC website: b. Early versus Late Models Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The 1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would be considered a "late" model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC official forecast. Conversely, the BAM models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are initialized. Therefore, they are termed "early" models. Model timeliness is listed in Table 1. Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and intensity of the TC. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as "interpolated" models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 This information is readily available not the NHC website: b. Early versus Late Models Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The 1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would be considered a "late" model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC official forecast. Conversely, the BAM models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are initialized. Therefore, they are termed "early" models. Model timeliness is listed in Table 1. Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and intensity of the TC. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as "interpolated" models. Thank you very much for that response! I guess that is why the "early" map model runs are nearly identical to the original 06z runs as the only change that would occur are observed differences from 0-6 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Thank you very much for that response! I guess that is why the "early" map model runs are nearly identical to the original 06z runs as the only change that would occur are observed differences from 0-6 hours out. Exactly, they simply do a correction (interpolation) based on the observed 06h error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Nothing but a wave axis ENE of Santo Domingo near the Mona Passage via RECON data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Pretty significant track change to the 12z HWRF. Previous runs had the LP 69W, 35N. 12z Run has LP at 73W, 30N. Essential slows down the progression of the storm but may ultimately still lead to an OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Starting to look better organized finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 This thing is racing westward. I'm not sure any model had a handle on how fast this is moving westward. They all seem to have him moving slower than 96L actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Just goes to show how the same data can be interpreted so differently behind the scenes. 3 distinct paths are still open IMO. Don't think we'll really get a handle on it until some defined CoC is found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 This thing is racing westward. I'm not sure any model had a handle on how fast this is moving westward. They all seem to have him moving slower than 96L actually is. It's pretty clear when you look at the INVEST tracks (that are corrected to an observed position of the estimated center) that the global model init locations are behind the (apparent) actual location. This physically moves their whole forecast track west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 It's pretty clear when you look at the INVEST tracks (that are corrected to an observed position of the estimated center) that the global model init locations are behind the (apparent) actual location. This physically moves their whole forecast track west. Add the faster motion and potential need to move the tracks west with the trough possibly dropping 96L off could raise concerns for people along the east coast. Gonna have to wait and see where a real center forms and start getting model runs that could be more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Remarkably the UKMET (only thing available is the text product) at 12Z has it enter the GOM. It's not nearly as much of a crack-smoking purveyor of horrific tropical track forecasts the way the Canadian is: NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 20.7N 72.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 21.6N 73.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 21.9N 75.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 21.8N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 22.1N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 21.5N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 22.2N 80.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 23.8N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 24.6N 85.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 25.5N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 27.5N 90.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Remarkably the UKMET (only thing available is the text product) at 12Z has it enter the GOM. It's not nearly as much of a crack-smoking purveyor of horrific tropical track forecasts the way the Canadian is: NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 20.7N 72.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 21.6N 73.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 21.9N 75.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 21.8N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 22.1N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 21.5N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 22.2N 80.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 23.8N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 24.6N 85.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 25.5N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 27.5N 90.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY Interesting. The UKMET is, indeed, a respectable (top tier) model for the tropics unlike the CMC. This could be quite the surprise and a potentially dangerous setup for the US Gulf coast if this solution were to verify closely. Does the UKMET have the faster forward speed initiated more accurately than the GFS and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yeah, I see a distinct spin around 65W and 15-16N. The GFS looks to have initialized there. Could this be Sandy II for New Jersey ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Could this be Sandy II for New Jersey ? This what happens when you put too much raw information in unprofessional hands.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Could this be Sandy II for New Jersey ? Not even close to the same pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 This what happens when you put too much raw information in unprofessional hands.... +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is still clustered between Florida and Cuba as of 18z Tuesday. This matches up well with the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and keeps the window open for a further west solution. If the ridge is able to build to the north, 96L should find itself in a favorable upper level enviornment with warm SST. By 00z Friday the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is centered directly over Central Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Starting to look better organized finally. Outflow channels do look to be getting better developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Not even close to the same pattern. Different time of the year as well, not really similar. 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane remains a solid analog, if you want to compare to a past TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Could this be Sandy II for New Jersey ? No. Just no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is still clustered between Florida and Cuba as of 18z Tuesday. This matches up well with the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and keeps the window open for a further west solution. If the ridge is able to build to the north, 96L should find itself in a favorable upper level enviornment with warm SST. By 00z Friday the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is centered directly over Central Florida. Just to illustrate this. Ensembles are still very much all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 If this thing would make up it's mind already it would be classified as a weak T.S. Recon finding 50kts on the east side of 96L http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Really interesting thing from recon is they ALMOST found a windshift N of the DR (4 kts from the SSW) and 1008 mb, and are now checking S of the DR, where interestingly the pressure is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Really interesting thing from recon is they ALMOST found a windshift N of the DR (4 kts from the SSW) and 1008 mb, and are now checking S of the DR, where interestingly the pressure is the same. Almost textbook characteristics of a very sharp wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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