Eyewall2005 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 00z CMC much more interesting. Currently has this thing really stregthening just north of Cuba and splitting the uprights into the Gulf as an absolute monster. were are you getting the 00z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 were are you getting the 00z run? Weatherbell Showing a Category 3 scraping south eastern Lousiana and heading north into the Mississippi/Alabama border. Let the model madness begin. They are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Total desperation when using the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Total desperation when using the Canadian. +infinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 This is one of the more uncertain 3-5 day forecasts I've seen in some time... Just look at the day 4 GEFS (which is typically underdispersive). Basically the GEFS says 96L could be anywhere from Cuba to Bermuda in 4 days. This uncertainly is also likely being underplayed given the GEFS tendency to agree with the control member in comparison to the 50 ECMWF ensembles which capture a better sense of the total uncertainty in the forecast. Good luck forecasting for this one folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The 0Z Euro says recurve east of the U.S. once more. That means the GFS and Euro have been consistently calling for a recurve since 0Z yesterday. Edit: let's see if it stays offshore NC northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The 0Z Euro says recurve east of the U.S. once more. That means the GFS and Euro have been consistently calling for a recurve since 0Z yesterday. Day 5 looks interesting, same general setup as 12z with the displaced ridge. Perhaps not an all clear for the East Coast and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Day 5 looks interesting, same general setup as 12z with the displaced ridge. Perhaps not an all clear for the East Coast and Canada. Fwiw, it is staying offshore NC northward to N.E. on the 0Z Euro. However, it certainly isn't an all clear for the east coast/Canada. JB emphasizes that due to the displaced ridge. Edit: The GFS/Euro have been pretty consistently generating a TC in the far eastern Atlantic ~8/27 moving NW to NNW fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Total desperation when using the Canadian. Seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Seems to be a center relocation south of Puerto rico right now, could this somehow go south of Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Seems to be a center relocation south of Puerto rico right now, could this somehow go south of Hispaniola Yeah, I see a distinct spin around 65W and 15-16N. The GFS looks to have initialized there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The surface flow with 96L is still sloppy. The vortex seen yesterday moving northwestward to the northeast of the islands has not become anything more than an eddy in the larger open circulation. The eddy is still there, north of the Virgin Islands, moving wnw/w. Regardless how the system tries to organize, the models have been getting even more robust with the trough off the east coast. It'll be tough for anything to get passed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Radar from San Juan is far better than looking at satellite loops at this time. As RECON detected yesterday, there were two vorts observed with the one to the SW being the weaker of the two. The northern most spin was clearly visible on high resolution imagery when it was devoid of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Perhaps these 2 circulations is what the ECMWF has been showing with a bifurcation of 96L's energy. It shows a piece recurving with it off the East Coast and another making it's way into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Perhaps these 2 circulations is what the ECMWF has been showing with a bifurcation of 96L's energy. It shows a piece recurving with it off the East Coast and another making it's way into the Gulf. Well I think this is more of a manifestation of the large uncertainty surrounding the forecast location of 96L in the medium range. While there might be more members in the northern camp (can't tell for sure unless I had the actual ensemble model guidance), its obvious there are still a non-negliable amount of ensemble members that take 96L into the Gulf of Mexico. The llc associated with 96L is still very broad (although the dominant mesovort appears to be just N of Puerto Rico), and relocations are difficult to forecast with large systems such as this. It still might be another 24 hours (after it gets past Hispaniola) until we really know that this poleward solution is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 12z early model guidance sure ticked up in intensity and still a ton of spread among the members, several show potential E-US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Seriously... 06Z GFDL is pretty good weenie-bait now - heading for the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Will be interesting to see how the HWRF and GFDL do with this upcoming storm.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/upgraded-hwrf-and-gfdl-hurricane-models-excelled-during-hurricane-arth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 06Z GFDL is pretty good weenie-bait now - heading for the Chesapeake. Seems that its only showing a weak Cat 1 at that time though and the Hurricane force winds should be off shore. Seems to be more of an issue for the Northeast than Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Starting to see some organization going on... Ice scattering now apparent north of Puerto Rico... almost can make out a low-level vortex signature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Not sure if you guys were aware of this but a new Genesis index has been released and is operational: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/realtime_data/nhc/tcgi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Starting to see some organization going on... Ice scattering now apparent north of Puerto Rico... almost can make out a low-level vortex signature?I can't seem to find any west wind observations or anything indicating a LLC. Definitely still looks like a wave to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 This wave is now running into under 20-40kts of shear. Which is enhancing a larger area of convection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 12z Cane Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 12z Cane Models Looking at these always gives me a chuckle. Why the hell do they continue to include the LBAR? It is always completely out in left field. Also, are some of these not the 06z runs such as the HWRF and GFDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 This wave is now running into under 20-40kts of shear. Which is enhancing a larger area of convection: wg8sht.GIF Nice outflow channel developing in the upper levels here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Looking at these always gives me a chuckle. Why the hell do they continue to include the LBAR? It is always completely out in left field. Also, are some of these not the 06z runs such as the HWRF and GFDL? Interesting that some models bring this back into the coast. A lot of options are still on the table with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Big uncertainty in the ECMWF ensembles still https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/502783387233685504/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The GFS is still way out to sea with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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