Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Serious decline in convection, but this has organized a bit Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for development early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 96L continues to have a broad elongated area of low pressure and some shear and dry air entrainment from the N continues to keep the convection from consolidating. While the track guidance has shifted E, the reliable 00Z European Ensemble Mean suggests that if this disturbance survives land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, anywhere from the Yucatan Peninsula across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida into the SE United States may feel the effects of the disturbance. Until an actual closed surface low develops, caution is advised on buying into one particular dynamical computer model over another. RECON is scheduled to investigate later today and the data gained by that mission should assist the various computer guidance regarding the development and future track of this tropical disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Didn't organize nearly as much as I had expected overnight. Looks elongated with no closed low level circulation. We shall see when recon goes out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 And the 12z GFS says...Hurricane? What hurricane? Meanwhile the 12z CMC coming in with a HWRF style track that slams into southern FL, re-emerges in the Gulf and has a secondary hit on the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The GFS looked interesting. Has a storm stalled just east of the Bahamas for a few days as a ridge comes in and builds to it's north. It finally takes off NE toward the end of the run, but a couple degrees to the west and it would've gotten stuck under the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Although 96L looks ragged on zoomed in satellite, the Atlantic-wide view is actually pretty impressive with good banding developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 one thing I noticed is the arc clouds which is a sign this is battling dry air and another thing is it seems there are multiple vortices battling each other and until 1 vortex becomes dominant this system is going to struggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 My untrained eye sees no closed circulation with 96L as of yet. Elongated open wave at this point. What does climo show us about developing systems in the area that it is at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 12Z ECMWF quite unimpressed. No real development and what that there is of it goes way wide right anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Looks to me as though a circulation is slowly forming and also that the system is headed more due west at this point, could therefore favor the tracks south of Hispaniola and Cuba or at least south coast of Cuba if it does develop. Just subjective of course, but looks about 12-18h away from TS status southeast of PR. No strong feelings about development potential as large-scale features only marginally conducive, but those SST values in eastern Gulf and Bahamas region are quite high, this could become the first of three Christobals to make it to hurricane status. The 2002 and 2008 versions were mostly OTS tropical storms. Martinique/Guadeloupe radar picking up the action now. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is sort of interesting. 96L is sitting East of Jaxsonville on Monday as the ridge is attempting to build to it's north. It's so quick with the movement as compared to the GFS/GGEM. Suddenly at 120 hours while it's almost east of OBX the ridge builds in and the system begins hooking towards the coast. Meanwhile the trough is still hung up over the upper plains. If you slowed down the track some 96L would find itself underneath the ridge in an excellent upper level enviornment and warm SST. Raises the eyebrow a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Recon has confirmed a weak low level center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is sort of interesting. 96L is sitting East of Jaxsonville on Monday as the ridge is attempting to build to it's north. It's so quick with the movement as compared to the GFS/GGEM. Suddenly at 120 hours while it's almost east of OBX the ridge builds in and the system begins hooking towards the coast. Meanwhile the trough is still hung up over the upper plains. If you slowed down the track some 96L would find itself underneath the ridge in an excellent upper level enviornment and warm SST. Raises the eyebrow a tad. Looks like the GFS ensembles, again big red flags are visible. The biggest question is probably the extent of developement. The pattern progression seems to overwhelmingly argue for a blocked recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 One of my favorite storms is a top analog for 96L. Perhaps adjusted eastward/faster somewhat and assuming this intensifies rather quickly. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane The latest 12z EURO run shows almost this exact track. If this does indeed verify (so much time to go but still), I tip my cap to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Looking better organized today. Recon confirmed the circulation, and the satellite presentation has improved noticebly from 24 hours ago. Banding is nicely established now. Still some outflow boundaries though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Can defnitely see a weak, but well-defined surface vortex near 16.8N 57.8W, moving northwestward. This vortex emerged from the overnight blob that fizzled this morning. The current lack of convection even attempting to fire near the vort suggests there is a dry air problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 There is another vortex further SW of one around 16N. Development should be slow to occur and the eventual future track depends greatly on which center of circulattion becomes the dominant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The 18Z GFS has strongly shifted toward the ECMWF in terms of track and intensity. This change basically confirms my earlier ideas that the chance of a U.S. impact is practically nil. I'm not sure as to why a lot of people turned an obvious recurve into an uncertain outcome. So far, 1) as mentioned previously, dry air has been too significant to allow development in the next two days, and 2) a weaker system moving faster will allow the trough to pick it up. Over time, the most reliable models have shifted toward a flatter, slower trough, meaning a weaker low-level ridge over/near the Bahamas as 96L recurves. Anyone with sense has been going with the ECMWF over the past few days--but that's just my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The 18Z GFS has strongly shifted toward the ECMWF in terms of track and intensity. This change basically confirms my earlier ideas that the chance of a U.S. impact is practically nil. I'm not sure as to why a lot of people turned an obvious recurve into an uncertain outcome. So far, 1) as mentioned previously, dry air has been too significant to allow development in the next two days, and 2) a weaker system moving faster will allow the trough to pick it up. Over time, the most reliable models have shifted toward a flatter, slower trough, meaning a weaker low-level ridge over/near the Bahamas as 96L recurves. Anyone with sense has been going with the ECMWF over the past few days--but that's just my take. Yes, we're all stupid and should just call off the rest of the season like you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The 18Z GFS has strongly shifted toward the ECMWF in terms of track and intensity. This change basically confirms my earlier ideas that the chance of a U.S. impact is practically nil. I'm not sure as to why a lot of people turned an obvious recurve into an uncertain outcome. So far, 1) as mentioned previously, dry air has been too significant to allow development in the next two days, and 2) a weaker system moving faster will allow the trough to pick it up. Over time, the most reliable models have shifted toward a flatter, slower trough, meaning a weaker low-level ridge over/near the Bahamas as 96L recurves. Anyone with sense has been going with the ECMWF over the past few days--but that's just my take. The 18z GFS is way slower and nothing like the ECMWF, compare them. The only thing in common is that neither of them make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The 18Z GFS has strongly shifted toward the ECMWF in terms of track and intensity. This change basically confirms my earlier ideas that the chance of a U.S. impact is practically nil. I'm not sure as to why a lot of people turned an obvious recurve into an uncertain outcome. So far, 1) as mentioned previously, dry air has been too significant to allow development in the next two days, and 2) a weaker system moving faster will allow the trough to pick it up. Over time, the most reliable models have shifted toward a flatter, slower trough, meaning a weaker low-level ridge over/near the Bahamas as 96L recurves. Anyone with sense has been going with the ECMWF over the past few days--but that's just my take. Just like Arthur was supposed to be a highly sheared 45 mph tropical storm well off the coast of the U.S. having no impact. If you looked at the European ensembles, they show a spread from the Gulf Coast all the way up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yes, we're all stupid and should just call off the rest of the season like you do. Can't tell if it's Rainstorm-like trolling, recent trend of dismissing everything to try to look like the coolest guy in the room, or an argument against a non-existent strawman ranting that this will hit Miami as a Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 96L ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 59.4W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 20KT LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 56.3W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 16KT LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 54.3W WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 You do have to admit, the HWRF has been very consistent. Have to wait for others to get on board of course, but if I was in Florida I would not dismiss something at least getting close just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 You do have to admit, the HWRF has been very consistent. Have to wait for others to get on board of course, but if I was in Florida I would not dismiss something at least getting close just yet. slp21.png It has been impressive in that it has held firm on the South Florida track...and just extrapolating it's movement, it appears that it would continue west if the run went any longer. I'm skeptical of it's strength, since it's always seemed on the strong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 OTS is pretty likely given all the model support that solution has. There's still a small chance it forms further south than expected, or the vortex splits and forms two lows and some sort of a storm makes it into the gulf of Mexico. Models still don't really show a TS forming for another 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 OTS is pretty likely given all the model support that solution has. There's still a small chance it forms further south than expected, or the vortex splits and forms two lows and some sort of a storm makes it into the gulf of Mexico. Models still don't really show a TS forming for another 48 hrs. Eh, I wouldn't really put too much stock into those spaghetti graphs. If you simply looked at "model support" yesterday you would be convinced that this thing was heading into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 It seems to me that the 0zGFS is erroneus off the bat being too far south at initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 It seems to me that the 0zGFS is erroneus off the bat being too far south at initialization 00z CMC much more interesting. Currently has this thing really stregthening just north of Cuba and splitting the uprights into the Gulf as an absolute monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 00z CMC much more interesting. Currently has this thing really stregthening just north of Cuba and splitting the uprights into the Gulf as an absolute monster. I think the North Atlantic weakness is being overplayed here. GFS is notorious for spawning phantom cutoff lows along frontal boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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