Ground Scouring Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Excuse me but Phil882 > Euro, and the current presentation has potential. Euro is the lone wolf here, in regards to the model consensus. I respect Phil's opinion a lot, but given seasonal trends I don't see why we should trust every other model when only the ECMWF has a record (limited though it may be) in accurate short-term forecasting for TCs once a closed low is initialized. Even in situations where the ECMWF was the "lone wolf" this year, it consistently trumped every other model in the short term (within three days). The fact that it went from fairly aggressive development to no development is a big red flag. I'm sorry if I seemed sarcastic, but literally every potential system this year hasn't had a chance given the excruciatingly dry conditions in the central ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I respect Phil's opinion a lot, but given seasonal trends I don't see why we should trust every other model when only the ECMWF has a record (limited though it may be) in accurate short-term forecasting for TCs once a closed low is initialized. Even in situations where the ECMWF was the "lone wolf" this year, it consistently trumped every other model in the short term (within three days). The fact that it went from fairly aggressive development to no development is a big red flag. I'm sorry if I seemed sarcastic, but literally every potential system this year hasn't had a chance given the excruciatingly dry conditions in the central ATL. There is certainly evidence that supports the fact that other global dynamical models do just fine in regards to TC genesis besides the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RGweathergeek Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 The continuing dry air in the Atlantic is a concern for this system. That being said the fact the models have been picking up on something for the last week gives me pause. I would like to see a few more model runs before writing this one off. The wonderful and very even-headed Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle sent out a special afternoon blog post about this wave. Eric is not one who hypes things up so the fact he is mentioning something leans me more towards that this may end up developing into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I respect Phil's opinion a lot, but given seasonal trends I don't see why we should trust every other model when only the ECMWF has a record (limited though it may be) in accurate short-term forecasting for TCs once a closed low is initialized. Even in situations where the ECMWF was the "lone wolf" this year, it consistently trumped every other model in the short term (within three days). The fact that it went from fairly aggressive development to no development is a big red flag. I'm sorry if I seemed sarcastic, but literally every potential system this year hasn't had a chance given the excruciatingly dry conditions in the central ATL. I agree with you on several accounts, the euro has been the superior model inside 3 days and any NE wind vector will be very detrimental to the system if/when it can emerge from the monsoonal trough. At the same time, no closed low has been initialized or established yet and an upper level anticyclone has formed just to the NE of the system which the euro has initialized too far north. This upper high stays significantly more coupled with the system on the GFS/GEM models, which is one of the reasons why intensification is stronger over the caribbean on those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I wouldn't just write this system off just yet. How many times have we've seen a system limp along until they reach the western Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE Coast. The MJO being in phase one seems to be helping it gain some convection considering the past few days it has really been fighting the hostile conditions in the Atlantic. Not to mention, the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf is loaded with potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Till something forms, just go with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I would disreguard the Euro intensity until we have a low to track then we might have something more realistic The same logic would apply for just about any other model (including the more gung-ho ones) at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Till something forms, just go with the euro. I see it as vice versa....a consolidated low center should improve consensus. GFS holding strong with development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Anyone else having an issue with instantweathermaps.com? Most recent GFS runs not showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Anyone else having an issue with instantweathermaps.com? Most recent GFS runs not showing. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ Classic gulf cane tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Quite a trough off the East Coast on the 18z run. Looks like very weak ridging keeps it from turning north and keeps it on a WNW track. Not to mention, really good outflow for this system on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Quite a trough off the East Coast on the 18z run. Looks like very weak ridging keeps it from turning north and keeps it on a WNW track. Not to mention, really good outflow for this system on the GFS. The monster storm in the Epac could potentially produce some shear at that time. However, Interaction with Shrederola and Cuba will be the first Obstacles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I wouldn't just write this system off just yet. How many times have we've seen a system limp along until they reach the western Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE Coast. The MJO being in phase one seems to be helping it gain some convection considering the past few days it has really been fighting the hostile conditions in the Atlantic. Not to mention, the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf is loaded with potential. As Kory mentioned, we're in MJO phase 1. The Euro ensemble actually blew this because it had predicted phase 2 through now and beyond. So, the GEFS had a rare MJO victory since it had been predicting a move back into phase 1. Fwiw, the Euro has it milling within a modest phase 1 before moving modestly back into phase 2. See 1st attached chart. However, the GEFS is still insisting on a monsterly strong phase 1 developing. It has it about as strong, if not even stronger than 1979's very bullish late August record strong phase 1 (peak of 3.08) (records back to 1975) really getting going starting in about a week from now. (see 2nd attached chart). Just during this record strong late August to early Sep., 1979, MJO phase 1, alone, David, Frederic, and Gloria (1979 version) all formed. That would be quite bullish for genesis prospects and may be why so many GFS runs are so bullish, but is this GEFS very strong phase 1 fictitious and the Euro's much more modest MJO more correct? Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 As Kory mentioned, we're in MJO phase 1. The Euro ensemble actually blew this because it had predicted phase 2 through now and beyond. So, the GEFS had a rare MJO victory since it had been predicting a move back into phase 1. Fwiw, the Euro has it milling within a modest phase 1 before moving modestly back into phase 2. See 1st attached chart. However, the GEFS is still insisting on a monsterly strong phase 1 developing. It has it about as strong, if not even stronger than 1979's very bullish late August record strong phase 1 (records back to 1975) really getting going starting in about a week from now. (see 2nd attached chart). That would be quite bullish for genesis prospects and may be why so many GFS runs are so bullish, but is this GEFS very strong phase 1 fictitious and the Euro's much more modest MJO more correct? Opinions? Interesting you mention the late 1979 MJO, there were some very strong storms and a huge burst of activity in the Atlantic basin within late August into September. David, Frederic, and Gloria are just a few of the big ones. Wonder if the same will be the case if the GEM comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Interesting you mention the late 1979 MJO, there were some very strong storms and a huge burst of activity in the Atlantic basin within late August into September. David, Frederic, and Gloria are just a few of the big ones. Wonder if the same will be the case if the GEM comes to fruition. Lol, I just added those three named storms in my edited post not knowing you posted them here. Edit: My educated guess is that the GEFS will verify quite a bit too strong and it may still be wrong to keep it in phase 1 since its record is normally not stellar. But we'll see! As mentioned, the Euro ens. actually blew it this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I wouldn't just write this system off just yet. How many times have we've seen a system limp along until they reach the western Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE Coast. The MJO being in phase one seems to be helping it gain some convection considering the past few days it has really been fighting the hostile conditions in the Atlantic. Not to mention, the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf is loaded with potential. The six most intense landfalling US hurricanes of record all didn't become hurricanes until west of longitude 65 west......1935 Labor Day hurricane (892 mb), Camille (900 mb), Katrina (920 mb), Andrew (922 mb), 1886 Texas (925 mb), and the 1919 Keys monster (927 mb) all formed relatively close to the US coast over very warm, potent ocean waters. I can't ever remember seeing the eastern Gulf of Mexico any warmer and more explosive than it is right now.....with several areas over 90 degrees. As your graphic shows, Oceanic Heat Content is very high as well......lots of high octane fuel lying there waiting to be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I would look for the storm-specific models to be more helpful around tomorrow 18z when the system is able to consolidate more. The statistical guidance still brings this to a strong hurricane. For now it's nothing more than noise, but once we get a plane into this (first recon mission is Thursday), we should have a much better idea what kind of future 96L has. 18z GFS ensembles are north of the OP, so we should see a shift to the north on the 00z run. Whether or not Shredderola kills it is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 As usual, the 18Z GFS really overdid the amount of convective organization, showing a large banding-type feature wrapping around the estimated low position. Current and recent satellite imagery show not a consolidating system, but rather a bursting-type pattern within the ITCZ. The system is clearly going to take at least a day and a half to become a named system, and right now I'm betting that it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 As usual, the 18Z GFS really overdid the amount of convective organization, showing a large banding-type feature wrapping around the estimated low position. Current and recent satellite imagery show not a consolidating system, but rather a bursting-type pattern within the ITCZ. The system is clearly going to take at least a day and a half to become a named system, and right now I'm betting that it won't. I agree that organization should be gradual, but we should start to see more convection start to erupt once 96L interacts with the CCKW. Right now I'd say that this reaches the islands as a depression or weak tropical storm at best. The potential for this system gets higher as it enter the WCARB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 As Kory mentioned, we're in MJO phase 1. The Euro ensemble actually blew this because it had predicted phase 2 through now and beyond. So, the GEFS had a rare MJO victory since it had been predicting a move back into phase 1. Fwiw, the Euro has it milling within a modest phase 1 before moving modestly back into phase 2. See 1st attached chart. However, the GEFS is still insisting on a monsterly strong phase 1 developing. It has it about as strong, if not even stronger than 1979's very bullish late August record strong phase 1 (peak of 3.08) (records back to 1975) really getting going starting in about a week from now. (see 2nd attached chart). Just during this record strong late August to early Sep., 1979, MJO phase 1, alone, David, Frederic, and Gloria (1979 version) all formed. That would be quite bullish for genesis prospects and may be why so many GFS runs are so bullish, but is this GEFS very strong phase 1 fictitious and the Euro's much more modest MJO more correct? Opinions? MJOEuroEnsPred081914.gif MJOgefsPred081914.gif The MJO actually isn't in octant 1, it's focused in the Indian Ocean (octant 2). If you deconstruct each component that makes up the 200mb VP anomalies, you'll see that the signal is being overwhelmed by a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave (which should aid in the development of 96L over the coming days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Well it seems now there is a consensus for development of 96L and it moving in the general direction toward the Gulf. The Euro and GFS are now showing a Gulf Coast landfall. Now, it is still VERY far out, but you like to see a consensus as far as forecasting goes. Looks like this will be a slow developer, which may be not be as good as it sounds. A deeper system would probably feel the trough that's forecasted off the East Coast and recurve. But since it's a rather weak/shallow system, it appears to get a tug north on the GFS and Euro while in the Caribbean, but doesn't fully make the turn north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Pretty clear it is going to miss Hispaniola to the S based on current position, motion, and lack of development; models that have it over Hispaniola also show a very unrealistic immediate NW movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Pretty clear it is going to miss Hispaniola to the S based on current position, motion, and lack of development; models that have it over Hispaniola also show a very unrealistic immediate NW movement. Not quite sure about that. It looks like a tropical wave to the east of 96L will fuse with it and develop a new low pressure within the vicinity of 14N 55W. That's probably why models are showing a NW jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Early morning High Resolution visible imagery suggest 96L is still an elongated area of low pressure and is generally caught up in the low level flow across the Atlantic beneath the Azores Ridge to the West. I just do not see this disturbance suddenly developing and shifting N by about 150 mile and then turning back W to WNW. We have expected to see a merger of a couple waves W of 50 since last week and conditions appear marginal at best until this disturbance nears the NW Caribbean and enters to Gulf. I would be cautious with these early track guidance model depictions until we have a consolidated center of circulation and that may not happen until the weekend when it is in the Caribbean Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I wouldn't be so quick to jump on the Gulf track just yet. A recurve is still quite possible if it develops as quickly as some of the models show. The GFS ensembles are centered up the gulf stream, and the CMC shows a recurve. Makes sense given the persistent east coast trough this season. The best chance for the Gulf is something like the Euro shows: a weak system/tropical wave that never develops until it enters the Gulf. The convergence and turning this morning on visible are pretty impressive, so I do think development within 48 hours is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I wouldn't be so quick to jump on the Gulf track just yet. A recurve is still quite possible if it develops as quickly as some of the models show. The GFS ensembles are centered up the gulf stream, and the CMC shows a recurve. Makes sense given the persistent east coast trough this season. The best chance for the Gulf is something like the Euro shows: a weak system/tropical wave that never develops until it enters the Gulf. The convergence and turning this morning on visible are pretty impressive, so I do think development within 48 hours is possible. 850mb Vorticity, 96L is becoming less linear and breaking from the ITCZ. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=vor&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 850mb Vorticity, 96L is becoming less linear and breaking from the ITCZ. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=vor&zoom=&time= 12Z INVEST motion was 270 degrees; it basically would have to turn NW essentially...now....to match the more northern models and GFS ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 12Z INVEST motion was 270 degrees; it basically would have to turn NW essentially...now....to match the more northern models and GFS ensemble members. Regardless, developement is occuring...it's not going to turn NW. There will be a center formation between 12-16N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 The models are not showing a NW movement IMO. They are showing a consolidation of the center NW of the current blob of moisture and then a WNW movement, which is quite possible. Edit: Looks like a circulation is developing now around 12.5 N 52 W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become a little better organized during the past few hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land interaction could limit development potential over the weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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