RaleighWx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 So here are the first models, statistical/simple models and the intensity models. Of course you can find them on the model page http://models.americanwx.com Also, I have added individual model images for the important early/late models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Now Invest 91L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Recon missions tabbed for tomorrow. 000NOUS42 KNHC 281239REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0835 AM EDT SAT 28 JUNE 2014SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2014TCPOD NUMBER.....14-028I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA)FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-A. 29/1800ZB. AFXXX 01BBA INVESTC. 29/1545ZD. 30.0N 78.0WE. 29/1745Z TO 29/2200ZF. SFC TO 10,000 FT.FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-A. 30/1200ZB. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONEC. 30/0930ZD. 29.5N 78.0WE. 30/1145Z TO 30/1600ZF. SFC TO 10,000 FT2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXESIF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.$JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Before I dominate this thread, why is there such a large spread in SSTs depending on the analysis method. More importantly... which is the most accurate??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Before I dominate this thread, why is there such a large spread in SSTs depending on the analysis method. More importantly... which is the most accurate??? NHC graphic appears to be a 7 day average. I'd trust the 5km data to be the most accurate and up to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 NHC graphic appears to be a 7 day average. I'd trust the 5km data to be the most accurate and up to date. The problem is that its the same information that gets ingested into SHIPS... so what happens if there is a significant change in SSTs during the week (e.g. upwelling from a TC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 NCEP Operational Status Message Sat Jun 28 13:44:21 2014 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 281343ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1341Z SAT JUN 28 2014THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...70414/SYA - 1015972230/BMX - 1014272451/DDC - 1014391334/TKK - 1015991348/PNI - 1014276805/ACA - SHORT TO 845 MB78016/BDA - SHORT TO 612 MB91765/PPG - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 712-691 MB...WET BULB EFFECTCRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.RSO STATUS...GOES-E RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 1414Z TODAY UNTIL 1414Z ONSUNDAY IN SUPPORT OF WX OPS AT WFO CHARLESTON SC.HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I think we see the NHC go 40-50% or higher at 2pm... the system is clearly getting its act together this afternoon with redeveloping convection over the increasingly better defined surface circulation. I think the overnight huge burst of convection (that was unforecasted by the GFS/CMC) but was at least partially captured by the ECMWF, was responsible for enhancing the low to mid-level vorticity over the system. The radar presentation is becoming markedly better defined as convection re-develops over the llc. The GFS continues to forecast a broad and diffuse low-level vort that eventually degenerates due to lack of convection, but its not really valid right now since it depicted a system absence of convection yesterday at this time. A solution like the ECMWF seems more valid at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The 12z ECMWF has definitely changed its tune from previous runs. Shows the storm developing into a tropical depression as it tracks towards the eastern coast of Florida (the storm begins to recurve before it reaches land). Tropical storm-force winds appear at +120hr, and pressures are lowering/winds are increasing from that point so far. Alberto is a good analog for what's going on here. An area of low pressure from non-tropical origins that meanders over warm waters for several days, eventually becoming a moderate tropical storm. The difference here is that wind shear is lower, so we'll see what happens. Too early to say if this has a chance at a landfall in North Carolina or not...steering currents are very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Euro day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Looks like we finally have the first decent "home brew" disturbance of the season Right now, I'd argue that there is closer to a 60% chance of TCG over the next 48 hours due to the re-development of convection close to the coast, the steady rate of organization over the past day,and the anticyclonic flow aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Euro day 7 It looks like a sheared slop-gyre on the precip. fields with all the TS winds and convection offshore/SE of the center. Only weak winds would occur in the Carolinas per ECMWF. Meh. Not a chaseworthy system = not worth looking at. This would be far more interesting if it were to continue SW and stall off SE FL or even continue into the Gulf, but that's not happening this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 It looks like a sheared slop-gyre on the precip. fields with all the TS winds and convection offshore/SE of the center. Only weak winds would occur in the Carolinas per ECMWF. Meh. Not a chaseworthy system = not worth looking at. This would be far more interesting if it were to continue SW and stall off SE FL or even continue into the Gulf, but that's not happening this time. Did anyone say this was a chase worthy system? Your tone in here is becoming overbearing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I would be cautious to completely dismiss this system if I were along the Space Coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 It looks like a sheared slop-gyre on the precip. fields with all the TS winds and convection offshore/SE of the center. Only weak winds would occur in the Carolinas per ECMWF. Meh. Not a chaseworthy system = not worth looking at. This would be far more interesting if it were to continue SW and stall off SE FL or even continue into the Gulf, but that's not happening this time. The waters are plenty warm off the east coast... This is not a slopgyre, this is a strong TS borderline Hurricane verbatim on the latest ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 It looks like a sheared slop-gyre on the precip. fields with all the TS winds and convection offshore/SE of the center. Only weak winds would occur in the Carolinas per ECMWF. Meh. Not a chaseworthy system = not worth looking at. This would be far more interesting if it were to continue SW and stall off SE FL or even continue into the Gulf, but that's not happening this time. Taking the Euro literally, this is a little more than a slopgyre. Definitely more interesting than anything last year. Plus, it's 7 days away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The waters are plenty warm off the east coast... This is not a slopgyre, this is a strong TS borderline Hurricane verbatim on the latest ECMWF Screen Shot 2014-06-28 at 3.10.33 PM.png Screen Shot 2014-06-28 at 3.12.14 PM.png Taking the Euro literally, this is a little more than a slopgyre. Definitely more interesting than anything last year. Plus, it's 7 days away.... Yes, you're right…I was looking at the 00Z plots on WUnderground (how do you select the 12Z run?). The latest 12Z data definitely look more impressive than the 00Z data did, so I should probably retract my earlier comments. Considering the amount of time this system is likely to have over water, strong convection and weak H2 flow should allow for a robust anticyclone to form in the next three to four days. That would make the ECMWF forecast plausible. There's still a question as to how far south it will go before turning N toward the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The 850mb wind field at hour 144 and the zoomed in 500mb/PMSL field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I would be cautious to completely dismiss this system if I were along the Space Coast of Florida. This... its worth nothing that 91L is also significantly better organized now than any of the global models (ECMWF included) were projecting. The storm is maintaining its convection through the diurnal minimum which is a healthy indicator that the atmosphere is moist and WISHE dynamics are beginning to moisten the vortex column to saturation. This a very healthy presentation for a disturbance that barely had a low-level circulation yesterday http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL912014&starting_image=2014AL91_1KMSRVIS_201406281445.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 This... its worth nothing that 91L is also significantly better organized now than any of the global models (ECMWF included) were projecting. The storm is maintaining its convection through the diurnal minimum which is a healthy indicator that the atmosphere is moist and WISHE dynamics are beginning to moisten the vortex column to saturation. This a very healthy presentation for a disturbance that barely had a low-level circulation yesterday http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL912014&starting_image=2014AL91_1KMSRVIS_201406281445.GIF I agree Phil. I think this likely becomes Arthur and although I am not ready to forecast it yet, it certainly will have the potential to reach strong TS low end cane status. Whether it does or not, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Yes, there seems to have been a similar-sized circulation that was and maybe is still nearby the investigated area. There seems to be a strong enough oceanic environment there for them whether with organized or disorganized convection. In a few hours it will be clear whether this other circulation kept moving or was absorbed/dissipated. This... its worth nothing that 91L is also significantly better organized now than any of the global models (ECMWF included) were projecting. The storm is maintaining its convection through the diurnal minimum which is a healthy indicator that the atmosphere is moist and WISHE dynamics are beginning to moisten the vortex column to saturation. This a very healthy presentation for a disturbance that barely had a low-level circulation yesterday http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL912014&starting_image=2014AL91_1KMSRVIS_201406281445.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Euro Ens not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Yes, there seems to have been a similar-sized circulation that was and maybe is still nearby the investigated area. There seems to be a strong enough oceanic environment there for them whether with organized or disorganized convection. In a few hours it will be clear whether this other circulation kept moving or was absorbed/dissipated. Yea there is a low-level circulation that is closed in association with 91L. The convective organization, was not well forecasted by the ECMWF, the GFS, or CMC by this stage in the game. Speaking of which... the bands of convection are becoming more organized, taking a banded appearance. I'd expect the NHC to go code red within 48 hours for the 8pm GTWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Euro Ens not impressed A large majority of the members have a 1002-1005mb low off the SE coast or over land in the 120-168 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Very nice ULAC for an invest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 91L did everything it needed to do today. It survived DMin, established convection in it's sphere of influence to maintain the anti-cyclone (as opposed to FL convection imposing shear) and it even appears it has stacked itself fairly well based on the movement of thunderstorms around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 It looks like convection is still displaced from the center somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 It looks like convection is still displaced from the center somewhat. Very nice ULAC for an invest.. wg8shrZ (1).GIF yea the upper level anticyclone is still displaced a little south of 91L, so its still experiencing light to moderate northwesterly shear. This is probably going to continue for the short term as a shortwave trough passes it by to the northeast. That could result in a little bit of dry air intrusion if it were to lose a lot of the convection that developed north of the llc earlier today. Overall though, the environment isn't too bad, and when the system is forecast to stall closer to the FL coast by the end of the weekend, it could find itself in a near zero shear environment and under ~28 C water temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I was looking at the HWRF and it has it going through Fl towards New Orleans,it's the only model i seen do this,is that plausible in your minds? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/RT_ATLANTIC/INVEST91L/INVEST91L.2014062818/hwrf_c.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I was looking at the HWRF and it has it going through Fl towards New Orleans,it's the only model i seen do this,is that plausible in your minds? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/RT_ATLANTIC/INVEST91L/INVEST91L.2014062818/hwrf_c.html The only reason it does this is that it is keeping it weak. If 91L stays weak, sure it could drift over there. If it grows stronger, then it will most likely be likely to pull north along with the trough that comes through mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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