Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[hurricaneman]

El nino is expected to develop during the heart of the Hurricane season and its starting to look like another year with below normal instability so as of now I expect a 9\4\0 season but the things that could change this are if El Nino doesn't come and or the instability comes up to above normal which it hasn't been for a few seasons

[andyhb]

El nino is expected to develop during the heart of the Hurricane season and its starting to look like another year with below normal instability so as of now I expect a 9\4\0 season but the things that could change this are if El Nino doesn't come and or the instability comes up to above normal which it hasn't been for a few seasons

 

[Ed Lizard]

Depending on the strength of an El Nino event, based on 2004, I'd say a weak one doesn't doom the season, and, see 1992 or 1983, a strong one can be low quantity but one or two of high quality.

 

Not brand new, but lots of scatter....

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

General model consensus is leaning towards an El Nino for the peak of the season, but I'm not sure we should believe them given their record the past two years. Seems we have to nowcast.

 

There was a nice westerly wind burst observed the other day, but it's since subsided as a new MJO pulse starts in the West Pacific. A downwelling kelvin wave has developed as well, but it's going to take a while to reach the East Pacific.

 

In the meantime, the -PDO remains firm, dampening the chances of a strong El Nino anytime soon.

[Roger Smith]

It may not be a valid correlation but cold Midwest winters seem to be worth about a -2 or -3 bias for storm counts. Whatever it says about patterns, there's also the more direct effect of cold water pouring into the Gulf of Mexico. One exception was 1936 but that year had a lot of sustained heat from May to August to overcome the signal. Also the solar analogues are not inspiring much confidence in an active season. We are around the same point in terms of solar activity as years such as 1883-85 or 1905-08, periods of generally low tropical activity.

 

Perhaps some other factors will overwhelm these concerns and produce a better outcome than most of the past four seasons in particular for landfalling storms.

[DopplerWx]

well this thread has killed my excitement for this season, bleh.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

well this thread has killed my excitement for this season, bleh.

 

Just remember there's always a chance for one.

[Superstorm93]

Nino 3.4 has been flopping around like a fish out of water. 

 

[WEATHER53]

Let us pray for a slow and safe season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The SOI is running high -- 30-day moving SOI value is 14.4, average for the past 90 days is  7.2.

 

[hurricaneman]

heres a map of instability values in the Atlantic and everywhere east of 55W seems to be well below normal. Lets see how this progresses as we head towards the hurricane season as a similar setup could be dangerous for storms forming near land. I'm puting out a forecast on march 1st

 

[Juliancolton]

Not 2014-related, but the NHC just added a subtropical storm in early December 2013 near the Azores. TCR here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152013_Unnamed.pdf

[Eyewall2005]

^{another garbage season ahead possibly worse then 2013.}

 

[Normandy]

Thats hilarious.  Guess we are entering a dry period for the NATL

[thewxmann]

Nah, 2014 could not possibly be worse than 2013. Either we break a record in terms of quietness, which would be kinda cool to witness, or we have more activity, which is good. So I think we may have reached a ceiling in terms of suckiness (knock on wood).

[Ed Lizard]

^{another garbage season ahead possibly worse then 2013.}

 

 

^^  Not even Eastern Mexico?  I know one person who'll be especially upset.

 

 

The last major to hit Houston, before most people were born, was a sub-tropical development, IIRC, it had some absurdly high pressure only a couple of mb below the mean SLP for the Gulf, ballpark 1010 mb when recon found a closed circulation, and was upgraded to a 40 knot TS at 1006 mb.

 

The admin at the KHOU-TV 11 weather forum was alive then, and probably knows.  Or, abnormally high pressure doesn't absolutely preclude sub-tropical development.

 

[Srain]

^^
Actually this is a good opportunity to promote Conference 2014 and Dr. Neil Frank will be addressing some of the reasoning behind pressures and wind speeds -vs- the number of named storms we have seen in recent years. Alicia showed what a meso low could become if allowed to dig to the surface even with high pressures in the 'back ground' so to speak. Even with well above avereage pressures, if the right conditions at the surface develop we can still see tropical development and sometimes rather strong development closer to home in very warm Gulf waters. I wouldn't put too much credence in the early season trends as we have witnessed some rather significant busts in early season forecasting regarding tropical cyclone formation and potential when ideal conditions were expected. There are some rather strong coorilations after a cold winter (The NW Gulf has seen one of the coldest winter on record/top 10 actually) and land falling TC's the following summer some of which were moderate to strong that date back to the late 1800's/ early 1900's into the 1930.

[hurricaneman]

I think a good analog year might be 1994 if el nino comes on

[hurricaneman]

Hurricane Forecast 2   February 27 2014

As we get closer to the 2014 hurricane season here are the factors and how I think they will effect the season

ENSO: With the current subsurface anomolies and new Kelvin wave moving through the Pacific it seem as though the current negative surface anomolies will be a thing of the past come the hurricane season which will add wind shear to the Atlantic but there may be a bit of cooler water near the coast of SA which would maket this more of a Madoki El Nino if it remains stubborn and could put a fly in the ointment in my forecast

Vertical instability: seems as though areas west of 55w will have higher than normal instability but may be lower than normal east of there so I do think that could spell trouble for anything that gets close to land so I will be watching this like a hawk but not much in the MDR

ITCZ: Seems as though at the moment its actually pretty robust for this time of year but we have to see if it remains that way until it starts moving north and durring the peak of the hurricane season

Bermuda\Azores High: seems to be pretty far north for this time of year and east so this one I can't tell yet of what the  position or orientation of it will be


Analog Years not in any order and their US landfalls since 1990

2009: Ida hits the Mouth of the Mississippi River on November 10th as a 50mph transitionaing tropical storm to nor'easter


2006: Alberto Landfalls as a 45mph TS in Adams Beach FL on June 14th
         
         Beryl landfalls in Nantucket as a 40mph tropical storm on July 21st
         
         Ernesto landfalls as a 45mph tropical storm in Guantonimo Bay, Cuba on August 28th and Kendall Florida on August 29th and as a 70mph TS in Wilmington NC on August 31st


2004: Bonnie landfalls as a 45mph TS in Apalachicola, Florida on August 12th
         
         Charley made landfall in Cuba as a 115mph hurricane on August 13th and Punta Gorda, FL as a 150mph hurricane on August 13th and Myrtle Beach SC as a 75mph hurricane August 14th

         Frances made landfall at  Port Salerno, Florida as a 105 mph hurricane September 5th

         Gaston made landfall in Awendaw, South Carolina as a 75mph hurricane August 29th
 
         Hermine mad landfall as a 40mph TS in New Bedford, MA August 31st

         Ivan made landfall in Pensacola, FL as a 120mph hurricane September 16th looped back around and made landfall in Holly Beach, LA as a 35mph TD on September 24th

         Jeanne made landfall in Puerto Rico as a 65mph TS on September 15th and a few hrs later in Hispaniola as a 75mph hurricane and later Stuart, FL as a 120mph hurricane on September 25th

         Matthew made landfall in  Cocodrie, LA as a 40mph TS on October 10th
        
         
2002: Bertha made landfall in Boothville, LA as a 40mph TS on August 5th and Kingsville TX as a 40mph TS on August 9th

         Edouard made landfall as a 40mph TS at Ormond Beach, FL on September 5th

         Fay made landfall in Matagorda, TX as a 60mph TS on September 6th

         Hanna made landfall as a 55mph TS on the mouth of the Mississippi River on September 15th

         Isidore made landfall on Grand Isle, LA as a 65mph TS on September 26th

         Lili made landfall as a 90mph hurricane in Intracoastal City, LA on October 3rd

1997: Danny made landfall as a 80mph hurricane in Buras, LA on July 19th

1994: Alberto made landfall near Destin, FL as a 65mph TS on July 3rd

         Beryl made landfall in Panama City, Fl as a 60mph TS on August 16th

         Gordon made landfall as a 40mph TS in Cuba November 13th and made 2 landfalls in Florida as a 50mph TS on November 15th
 
         Heres a storm I'm going to add based on reports the 1994 christmas eve Nor'easter aka TS Santa which made landfall as a 70mph TS on Montauk, NY December 24th

1993: Arlene made landfall in Padre Island, TX as a 40mph TS on June 20th

1992: Andrew made landfall in Homestead FL as a 165mph Hurricane on August 24th and Morgan City, LA as a 115mph hurricane on August 26th

         Danielle made landfall as a 65mph TS in Maryland on September 26th

1991: Bob Made landfall as a 105mph hurricane in Buzzards Bay, MA on August 19th

out of these 9 El Nino analogs 2002 was a mix of El Nino Madoki the first half of hurricane season and Traditional El Nino by September and 2004 was an El Nino Madoki so I added those in case the cold pool is stubborn so based on that the landfall storms are as follows

The numbers for these El Nino year landfalls
27 Named Storms
11 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes

so in Summary I would say the hurricane season may be stiffled a little by El Nino so I'm going with a 12\5\2 season and do believe there is a hightened risk for landfall due to where the Instability will probably be and possibly where the Bermuda high sets up but with the +PDO it may end up being North Carolina, SE Coast, Florida and the eastern Gulf  with the highest risk and maybe some risk to the Western Gulf, and the Northeastern US and low risk for Central America but if it shows more of a Madoki the risk could shift more towards Florida and maybe all of the gulf
 

[hurricaneman]

This will most likely quell the hurricane season but one can only look back at some past seasons with moderate to strong El Ninos and here they are as follows with US hurricane Landfall. As we all say it only takes one to make a memorable hurricane season

1957: Audrey
1963: Cindy
1965: Betsy
1972: Agnes
1983: Alicia
1987: Floyd
1991: Bob
1992: Andrew
1993: Emily
1994: Christmas eve storm aka TS Santa{may have been hurricane at NE Landfall we'll see after reanalysis}
1997: Danny
2002: Lili

as noted above most el nino seasons do feature one hurricane landfall and a few of those even featured a major landfall so even if el nino develops and is moderate to strong doesn't mean let your guard down as even in these type seasons you can still have pockets of low shear and if these systems find them there could be major problems

[andyhb]

Why don't we wait until later before we start writing off the season or deciding how its going to go based on a certain type of ENSO?

 

Sure, El Nino looks like a solid possibility, but how strong it will be is still (and will be for awhile) way up there.

[AvantHiatus]

Why don't we wait until later before we start writing off the season or deciding how its going to go based on a certain type of ENSO?

 

Sure, El Nino looks like a solid possibility, but how strong it will be is still (and will be for awhile) way up there.

This^

 

Everything has been so atypical between the consistent dry air over the Tropical Atlantic in the 500mb layer and la nina years not delivering per climo.

[Ed Lizard]

As a glass half full optimist, I'll note that a weak to moderate warn ENSO created the best hurricane season Florida has in years in2004, including a daytime Cat 4 landfall.

 

Hard to imagine hurricane seasons getting any duller, really.

[thewxmann]

This^

 

Everything has been so atypical between the consistent dry air over the Tropical Atlantic in the 500mb layer and la nina years not delivering per climo.

 

Maybe El Nino will increase the atmospheric instability over the Tropical Atlantic. Who knows.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

 

 

As bluewave indicated in another post, the Atlantic has taken on a -AMO look, with cool eastern sea surface temperatures and very warm anomalies off the East Coast. If the mid-latitudes cooperate, we may need to watch for a season like 1972 where almost all the activity is concentrated close to the Southeast USA.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Just reading some study an NWS LCH met did 15 years ago, and for SW LA and SETX, hurricanes being so rare to begin with, and a lot of our storms being non-tropical in origin (probably) being the reason, an El Niño doesn't do all that much for our odds locally, although it probably means another generally boring season in the overall basin.  Last major in the HGX CWA was a non-tropical development, and I've seen 1957, an interesting year for SW LA, mentioned a couple of times now.

 

And a weak warm ENSO season, 2004, was action packed.

 

Old paper linked on Texas thread in the elsewhere subforum...

 

 

And, as always, as everyone always says, El Niño isn't always complete boredom.  Imagine repeating the 1992 season, except 12 hours different.  Wailing and gnashing of teeth deep into August, then a flurry of intense posting and awesome YouTube video threads.  And then the second coming of Iniki in the East/Central North Pacific?

 

 

/Glass Half Full.

[Mitchel Volk]

A quiet hurricane season is a good one who needs storms that cause misery, hardship and loss. I like most meteorologists are very interested in them but I have seen what they can do and it is not pretty. Blizzards on the other hand cause little harm and that are beauitiful. I am also expecting a below normal Atlantic season, just look at the SST's over the MDF region. I just hope nothing develops off the southeast coast their SST's look way above normal.

[HurricaneJosh]

A quiet hurricane season is a good one who needs storms that cause misery, hardship and loss. I like most meteorologists are very interested in them but I have seen what they can do and it is not pretty. Blizzards on the other hand cause little harm and that are beauitiful. I am also expecting a below normal Atlantic season, just look at the SST's over the MDF region. I just hope nothing develops off the southeast coast their SST's look way above normal.

 

Lol.  Many people die from freezing and traffic accidents in blizzards, and the economic losses can be enormous. Weather-related losses make us all sad-- no argument there. But saying it's cool to hope for this type of deadly/damaging weather event but not that kind is silly. Please be consistent.

 

P.S.  Snow is not beautiful to me at all.  However, the eyewall of a strong hurricane-- the screaming of the wind, the violent waving of the trees-- is so beautiful to me, it chokes me up very time. (And, believe me, I've been in many hurricanes-- of every category.)  We all have our own concept of beauty-- so please note that yours is personal, not universal.

[andyhb]

A quiet hurricane season is a good one who needs storms that cause misery, hardship and loss. I like most meteorologists are very interested in them but I have seen what they can do and it is not pretty. Blizzards on the other hand cause little harm and that are beauitiful. I am also expecting a below normal Atlantic season, just look at the SST's over the MDF region. I just hope nothing develops off the southeast coast their SST's look way above normal.

 

Blizzard of 1996, Superstorm 1993, Blizzard of 1888, both of the 1978 blizzards, Great Lakes Storm of 1913...shall I go on? 

[Macintosh]

A quiet hurricane season is a good one who needs storms that cause misery, hardship and loss. I like most meteorologists are very interested in them but I have seen what they can do and it is not pretty. Blizzards on the other hand cause little harm and that are beauitiful. I am also expecting a below normal Atlantic season, just look at the SST's over the MDF region. I just hope nothing develops off the southeast coast their SST's look way above normal.

 

I take exception to your comments.  My company handles emergency generators for power outages, and we're based in Florida.  We provide a critical service to the community, and frankly we *need* periodic hurricanes to stay in business.  Just like the fire department needs fires and the trauma surgeon needs car accidents.  Yeah, wouldn't it be great if the world didn't need generators? But when storms strike, they do.  So, who needs storms? We do.  

 

Also, quiet seasons are a real problem for *anybody* in the disaster preparedness community, from FEMA to local EMAs and fire departments, etc.  Quiet seasons breed complacency as a natural human reaction.  Try getting people to have an evacuation plan and take the threat seriously when there hasn't been a storm in 10 years.  It's hard.

 

And in any case, you're coming to the wrong place to talk about how you hope there are no storms.  Personally, I want some fresh, red hurricane meat.