1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[Heisy]

The 00z RGEM is out to 36 hours in black & white, the shortwave looks AMAZING, Seriously, think its going to go nuts at 48 hours

 

[mitchnick]

I think the RGEM will be coming in pretty impressive by the looks of the vert/motion maps

regular maps aren't out yet, however

[usedtobe]

I keep hearing two different things on ratios, I've heard that it's one of the great myths, we never get good ratios, then I hear people saying 15-1 ratios are a good bet. Are ratios just hard to predict?

For a major storm,  ratios generally are in the between 10 and 13 to 1 as long as you are below freezing.    Fore clippers it usually is above 15 since you don't have much cloud water and don't have riming.   If you primarily get dendrites they can be higher.  I'll probalby use 15-1 tomorrow in any forecast I do. 

[ravensrule]

Nice, all hail the new king the RGEM:

 

[Bob Chill]

Whether the nam is right, wrong, or onto something....it will be forgotten faster than milli vanilli in about 30 mins.

Considering the nature of this system we are already seriously maximizing potential even with the nam run. Very few of us even believed in it 3 days ago.

[Bob Chill]

Thanks! And one more weenie-question. Is this system a clipper, or more of a hybrid clipper with some coastal help?

Its a relatively rare redeveloper at our latitude. Sne gets these much more often.

[mitchnick]

Nice, all hail the new king the RGEM:

 

and that's just 3 hrs. percip, NOT 6 hrs!

[nj2va]

Hi res NAM has .25 for DCA. .4 for Wes.

[Ji]

Clipper? What clipper....we are getting a blizzard

@BigJoeBastardi: I-95 corridor snowstorm with near blizzard conditions at end growing more likely tom night into Tuesday. System continuing to look better

[yoda]

RGEM at 48

[ravensrule]

and that's just 3 hrs. percip, NOT 6 hrs!

Yes i know, if the RGEM is right there will be many man hugs in here Tuesday night.

[mitchnick]

BINGO RGEM!

[needbiggerboat]

Whether the nam is right, wrong, or onto something....it will be forgotten faster than milli vanilli in about 30 mins.

Considering the nature of this system we are already seriously maximizing potential even with the nam run. Very few of us even believed in it 3 days ago.

Speak for yourself, I still have fond memories of both milli and vanilli, especially the one that died, although I'm not sure if that was vanilli or milli

[PhineasC]

RGEM is the new NAM when it comes to going nuts.

[ravensrule]

RGEM is the new NAM when it comes to going nuts.

It has been good this winter though and more importantly it has sniffed it out first.

[mitchnick]

RGEM is the new NAM when it comes to going nuts.

it was great on 1/2 storm

[DDweatherman]

I'd rather have the RGEM going nuts than the NAM though. 

[snowfan]

Joe B - go big or go home!

[mitchnick]

it would still be snowing at 48 hrs on the RGEM per the 700h RH map

nice backlash.....dare I say near bliz with a 993mb off the coast of OC?

[Heisy]

it would still be snowing at 48 hrs on the RGEM per the 700h RH map

nice backlash.....dare I say near bliz with a 993mb off the coast of OC?

 

All I know is I'd rather have the RGEM in my corner than the NAM...this is good news for sure. 

[ravensrule]

it would still be snowing at 48 hrs on the RGEM per the 700h RH map

nice backlash.....dare I say near bliz with a 993mb off the coast of OC?

Lol, i was just about to comment on that.

[jnis]

Whether the nam is right, wrong, or onto something....it will be forgotten faster than milli vanilli in about 30 mins.

Considering the nature of this system we are already seriously maximizing potential even with the nam run. Very few of us even believed in it 3 days ago.

Lol! Nice one...I surely hope we can score an inch or two; after seeing the models and reading the analysis I will allow myself a small amount of optimism.

[MN Transplant]

Afternoon commute Tuesday could be dicey.

[Martin]

FWIW here is the latest RPM

[Ji]

Zwyts says the nam is trash and ignore it...so yea

[usedtobe]

RGEM is the new NAM when it comes to going nuts.

It is but is also is saying that minor perturbations might make a pretty big difference on what happens with this storm.  I keep remembering that the same type of gyrations were occurring prior to my 5 inch storm earlier this month.  I wouldn't get too excited by the NAM or RGEM. 

[HKY18]

The 21z SREF mean drops around .50 QPF at DCA. Mean snowfall 9.75in. I count 7 members with a foot or more of snow. Obviously very unlikely just thought it was interesting.

[mitchnick]

It is but is also is saying that minor perturbations might make a pretty big difference on what happens with this storm.  I keep remembering that the same type of gyrations were occurring prior to my 5 inch storm earlier this month.  I wouldn't get too excited by the NAM or RGEM. 

he!!, I am!    lolo

I said RGEM would have snow falling still at 48 hrs. and here's the map to prove it

[Quasievil]

Rght now, honestly, I'm not sure what to believe.

[needbiggerboat]

Where were the synoptic features located relative to conus and canada that are feeding the data to the 21z srefs and 0z suites? (offshore, onshore, up in canada, etc). Does data sampling lend credence to changes, etc or is it too soon to declare a trend, etc?