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1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Finally had a chance to look at 18z in depth. Need to get the Euro aboard but the mid lvls are really nice.  Someone would do pretty well.. hopefully me.  I think the GFS will moisten up if it holds the same look.. the NAM idea of a higher stripe seems better.  The vort track is almost perfect which might be a problem from this range.. congrats Parkton. The progression of the trough seems to make it less likely we will get whiffed to any major degree... slow dev always a question but I think being on the leading edge of the Arctic invasion should help give it a little kick.

 

Gotta get the Euro aboard lol.

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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Finally had a chance to look at 18z in depth. Need to get the Euro aboard but the mid lvls are really nice.  Someone would do pretty well.. hopefully me.  I think the GFS will moisten up if it holds the same look.. the NAM idea of a higher stripe seems better.  The vort track is almost perfect which might be a problem from this range.. congrats Parkton. The progression of the trough seems to make it less likely we will get whiffed to any major degree... slow dev always a question but I think being on the leading edge of the Arctic invasion should help give it a little kick.

 

Gotta get the Euro aboard lol.

Good news Ian is that the 12z Euro ens were respectable with .15ish QPF around DC, so a solid bit higher than the OP. 21z SREF are in and .5 is now nearing Wes. .25 up to HGR. 

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

Finally had a chance to look at 18z in depth. Need to get the Euro aboard but the mid lvls are really nice.  Someone would do pretty well.. hopefully me.  I think the GFS will moisten up if it holds the same look.. the NAM idea of a higher stripe seems better.  The vort track is almost perfect which might be a problem from this range.. congrats Parkton. The progression of the trough seems to make it less likely we will get whiffed to any major degree... slow dev always a question but I think being on the leading edge of the Arctic invasion should help give it a little kick.

 

Gotta get the Euro aboard lol.

 

Even the ensembles look pretty impressive.  The vort track is really good sort of like the one earlier this month but we won't have the ptype issues on the front end that some of us had.  I'm looking forward to writing an article tomorrow but will be comre comfortable with one if the euro starts getting wetter.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Can someone explain the SREFs map to me?  The 0.5 line looks to be right over/near DCA but the color contour is 0.25.  I'm guessing it has something to do with the probabilities,etc but want to confirm.  Thanks.

The color is spread.  So, that's the range of values in the ensembles.  Basically, it's saying the mean QPF is near 0.5" for DCA, but the spread on that is +/- some value in the 0.25-0.5" range.  So, if the spread is exactly 0.25", that means the range of values is 0.25-0.75". 

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
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Can someone explain the SREFs map to me?  The 0.5 line looks to be right over/near DCA but the color contour is 0.25.  I'm guessing it has something to do with the probabilities,etc but want to confirm.  Thanks.

I am not great at explaining these things but the black line that you see that starts offshore goes just North of Wes's house hence he is in the .5 contour and everyone else is below that.

 

Edit: i see WXUSAF answered it much better.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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only 4 hours until it shows another 0.07"

I'm not even worried about the euro tbh. With a small system and quick deepening I think the short range models have it better resolved already. And the gfs trended right in. Gfs has been a rock for days showing this one being a decent possibility at something. I've done enough model watching this year to conclude the euro op has lost some luster.

Odds of the euro making a good move tonight are high. And it will be a gradual step as always.

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cpasi

cpasi

Posted
Posted

21z SREF mean for DCA is 0.48".  I took out the top 3 and bottom 3 members and the mean is 0.42".  Good news is that this run, no members show 0.0".  SREFs suck in this range but nice seeing the upward trend regardless.

what are we thinking the ratios are.. Say IAD / DCA .

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