1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[ravensrule]

People are throwing around 20:1 ratios a little too easy.  That number is still a tough get.

14-15:1 is more realistic. That would still give most people between 7-8".

[hosj III]

Sun angle.......... come onnnnnnnnnnn its January 20th........... it will be 20 degrees. Nothing is going to mess with stickage tomorrow.

If it's not night or December 21st, then sun angle is an issue.

[hosj III]

People are throwing around 20:1 ratios a little too easy.  That number is still a tough get.

Agreed. The winds should disrupt the crazy ratios people are throwing around.

[Kmlwx]

Agreed. The winds should disrupt the crazy ratios people are throwing around.

Winds don't impact ratios was my understanding.....

Do you mean it won't stick in any one spot because of blowing and drifting? Because that's different. 

[Wonderdog]

If it's not night or December 21st, then sun angle is an issue.

Very doubtful.

[H2O]

People are throwing around 20:1 ratios a little too easy. That number is still a tough get.

We didn't get that in the magical 09-10 iirc

[BTRWx]

Not worried about temperatures today. We have been over this before. Previous day's temperature has minimal to zero effect on snow sticking the next day.

 

Sun angle is a bigger concern, if anything.

I am not worried about temps at all. My initial comment was a nowcast obs to see what may happen later. In an ever-changing atmosphere, you never know what may sneak up on you. We're all trying to learn something, including the pros I would hope. I do appreciate all the responses.

[Ian]

I don't think it's an issue but this has to be about as warm as we ever get in Jan ahead of accumulating snow.

[midatlanticweather]

OH MY!!! Read DT's self proclaiming weather god!!! You almost want things to fail so he can fail!!! Anyways, seriously thinking the 20:1 may only happen on the NW fringes of this thing and then there is less precip there so it offsets. The winds and drifting are gonna make the measure very very hard! CWG of a broad brush 4 to 7" looks good and I bet a few folks get 8 to 10 but in local areas, especially if we get some convection going but pinpointing the banding local stuff will be what tomorrow is all about!! 

 

Edit: should have also said the 20:1 may be closer to at the end of the event too.. but seriously, I am not met - believe them and be happy for anything greater than 10:1... 

[DDweatherman]

Winds at the h7 level disrupt snow growth kml

[NorthArlington101]

I don't think it's an issue but this has to be about as warm as we ever get in Jan ahead of accumulating snow.

Any flakes that come to early would have a problem sticking for a few short minutes, I doubt we'd lose anything to it really. Rooting for it to come in late.

[H2O]

I don't think it's an issue but this has to be about as warm as we ever get in Jan ahead of accumulating snow.

My ground has to be about 80F thanks to today

[nj2va]

UVV should start the new thread when we need it.

[BTRWx]

I don't think it's an issue but this has to be about as warm as we ever get in Jan ahead of accumulating snow.

If we look at recent analogs, we should be golden.

[DDweatherman]

UVV should start the new thread when we need it.

Let me know man, I gladly will continue this for us. Told you guys to trust me.

[Kmlwx]

Winds at the h7 level disrupt snow growth kml

 

gotcha thx!

[Sparky]

My ground has to be about 80F thanks to today

see if you can fry an egg.

[Kmlwx]

My ground has to be about 80F thanks to today

 

My guess is there will be a microscale impact to give Rose Hill around 0.2 inches when all is said and done. Sorry

[Ian]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42487-121-redeveloping-clipper-storm/

[mitchnick]

I'm back to what I left with, the NAM gave me barely .5" qpf and everything else w/in 10-15% of that

sweet

RGEM baby, RGEM