1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[Ian]

Start time on the Euro?

7-10a across the area?

[snow.]

Also had .1" for HGR and now has .5"

 

I dont care about HGR....it is like 7000 miles away from me...I dont care about model output that takes me over 2 hours to get to in traffic

[snow.]

Start time on the Euro?

 

8:30?

[chris87]

so 12z guidance for DC

 

NAM - 0.47"

GFS - 0.41"

Euro - 0.46"

RGEM - ~0.45"

UKIE - ~0.45"

GGEM - ~0.40"

 

 

not a lot of uncertainty when it comes to liquid -- now it all comes down to efficiency

[nflwxman]

Does anyone have the Euro QPF output for CHO?  Looks like I'm right on the line of greatness.  Thank you in advance.

[needbiggerboat]

Looks like the usual suspects. Winchester, Westminster, maryland convergence region should get annihilated.

 

DCA should do well.

 

You'll do fine in Dale City...Centreville should be on the higher end of regional totals, and a inch or two above IAD.  Planning for two snowblower passes.

[SNO]

North and West wins again

[Ji]

.31 cho

[Ian]

North and West wins again

Like they do 90% of the time.

[waldo5252]

North and West wins again

What happened to make the winners go from South and East of DC to North and west now??

[MN Transplant]

so 12z guidance for DC

 

NAM - 0.47"

GFS - 0.41"

Euro - 0.46"

RGEM - ~0.45"

UKIE - ~0.45"

GGEM - ~0.40"

 

Noon/7pm temps:

 

NAM - ~24°/~16°

NAM 4k - ~25°/~16°

WRF ARW & NMM - upper 20s/upper 10s

GFS - low 20s/~15°

[87storms]

North and West wins again

 

storm hasn't begun yet.  reality > models

[nflwxman]

.31 cho

Better than I expected.  5".  I'll take it.

[needbiggerboat]

North and West wins again

 

Everybody wins in this type of set up...that's a rare one around here.

[snow.]

not a lot of uncertainty when it comes to liquid -- now it all comes down to efficiency

 

models have been good this winter with QPF, but those early december events had too much southern stream for me to feel safe with them this wet for a northern stream event....I would still chop some off if I were making a forecast......but even being conservative 0.3" at 13:1 ratios is 4".....so I think 4-6" is a good forecast....0.45" at 15:1 would give us near 7" but not sure I would include that in a forecast....though if guidance holds 4-7" could work

[MidlothianWX]

Everybody wins in this type of set up...that's a rare one around here.

You still going to be down this way? Looking like downtown RIC has a shot at  the 3-5" range.

[Ian]

lol it's 57 at DCA

[5speed6]

lol it's 57 at DCA

 

Gonna go tan on the Homer Building roof deck at lunch. 

[olafminesaw]

not a lot of uncertainty when it comes to liquid -- now it all comes down to efficiency

That's what she said.

[needbiggerboat]

You still going to be down this way? Looking like downtown RIC has a shot at  the 3-5" range.

 

Not sure...don't like being away from the homestead when there's a possible 6 incher on tap.

[nflwxman]

You still going to be down this way? Looking like downtown RIC has a shot at  the 3-5" range.

Some superband is going to clip Richmond at the last hour of the storm. Storm bulls eye will be short pump. 

[wxmeddler]

Soooooo.... I have been AFK from the weather and I got an cc email this morning from my wx boss saying "INCOMING!" to the road crews. I was like what? The clipper. OMFG! When did this happen?!!!?!?

[MidlothianWX]

Some superband is going to clip Richmond at the last hour of the storm.  Bullseye will be short pump. 

Seems to have happened at least a few times over the past few years. This is a rare setup though, one that might give the city more than my house located ~20 miles WSW. Fortunately, I'll be downtown tomorrow.

[Grothar of Herndon]

Seems to me everyone in DMV going to do good with this storm if everything stays on course. There is going to be on heck of temperature drop between now and tomorrow morning. 52 at IAD last hour. 55 at the house in Herndon.

[wxmeddler]

huge

 

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_8.png

 

That's 10:1 too, it's going to be 12:1 -> 20:1 by the end.

[Subtropics]

Not worried about temperatures today. We have been over this before. Previous day's temperature has minimal to zero effect on snow sticking the next day.

 

Sun angle is a bigger concern, if anything.

[joeride]

huge

 

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_8.png

so with 20:1 ratios we can double this amount, we go from 4 or 5 inches to 8-10" of the white fluffy angel dust. It sure will be easy shoveling. excited for another day off work.

[84 Hour NAM]

Not worried about temperatures today. We have been over this before. Previous day's temperature has minimal to zero effect on snow sticking the next day.

 

Sun angle is a bigger concern, if anything.

 

Sun angle.......... come onnnnnnnnnnn its January 20th........... it will be 20 degrees. Nothing is going to mess with stickage tomorrow.

[yoda]

so with 20:1 ratios we can double this amount, we go from 4 or 5 inches to 8-10" of the white fluffy angel dust. It sure will be easy shoveling. excited for another day off work.

 

20:1 SR a bit high... prob more 15:1

[MN Transplant]

People are throwing around 20:1 ratios a little too easy.  That number is still a tough get.