1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[snow.]

Would higher temperatures today enhance or limit our potential tomorrow? I would think the two possibilities would be enhancement in the sense of strong dynamics from extreme warmth to extreme cold or limiting in the sense that temperatures tomorrow wouldn't drop as much as currently forecast. Any thoughts?

 

very negligible effect if any...

[yoda]

FWIW, 12z UKIE is ~12mm or so... around 0.45 QPF for DCA

[snow.]

euro is a very nice hit

[Huffwx]

very negligible effect if any...

we were in the 60's on February 18th 2012 with snow falling the next morning that begin to accumulate right away....8.2 inches later it stop

[usedtobe]

euro is a very nice hit

Good,  makes it easy.

[snow.]

euro is sweet

 

~0.40" for DCA

[BTRWx]

The models have accounted for the warm temps today.

Though DCA has been hovering around low 50's, just to the south around Alexandria, there are multiple readings in the mid-upper 50's. I didn't see these values in any forecast.

[stormtracker]

euro is a very nice hit

ah..we can rest easy...QPF?

 

EDIT:  NVM..saw your last post

[mappy]

Though DCA has been hovering around low 50's, just to the south around Alexandria, there are multiple readings in the mid-upper 50's. I didn't see these values in any forecast.

 

stop. worrying.

[EasternUSWX]

Euro folds up like an arm chair. That model has became king nothing lately. 

[nj2va]

Euro folds again.  Looks like ~.4 for DC?

 

Edit:  Matt beat me to it.  Nice hit!

[snow.]

euro is sweet

 

~0.40" for DCA

 

looks closer to 0.45 maybe...weatherbell folks?

[yoda]

Looks like most models, give or take a few hundreths of an inch.. are between 0.40 and 0.45 QPF for DCA

[snow.]

Euro folds up like an arm chair. That model has became king nothing lately. 

 

it had 0.3" last night for DC...the NAM has 0.22"

[MN Transplant]

Though DCA has been hovering around low 50's, just to the south around Alexandria, there are multiple readings in the mid-upper 50's. I didn't see these values in any forecast.

 

Well, now DCA is 57, because of course it is.  Still pretty much irrelevant for tomorrow.  We aren't worried about the current airmass because it is going to get displaced overnight.

[needbiggerboat]

so with temps and ratios all 12z simulations suggest 6+ widespread across the metro area...it's been a long time coming

[Ian]

it had 0.3" last night for DC...the NAM has 0.22"

huge

 

[usedtobe]

ah..we can rest easy...QPF?

 

EDIT:  NVM..saw your last post

over .40 so yes, no qpf worries.

[nj2va]

Looks like 0.5 for DC actually based on text values on the map.  Ian, are the text values rounded up to the nearest tenth?

[Ian]

Looks like 0.5 for DC actually based on text values on the map.

yup.. HUGE

[EasternUSWX]

it had 0.3" last night for DC...the NAM has 0.22"

 

Also had .1" for HGR and now has .5"

[MN Transplant]

Start time on the Euro?

[stormtracker]

Ha..now Euro is the wettest of them all

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

huge

 

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_8.png

great Map but it assumes 10:1 ratios!  at 15:1 to 20:1 ratios that is a solid 6-10 inch storm. 

[olafminesaw]

I think that the biggest takeaway is the much larger precipitation shield. I think that even if the northern trend continues, we should still get some good snow.

[snow.]

so 12z guidance for DC

 

NAM - 0.47"

GFS - 0.41"

Euro - 0.46"

RGEM - ~0.45"

UKIE - ~0.45"

GGEM - ~0.40"

[Ji]

Euro wettest model for jyo

[stormtracker]

These posts worrying about temps today make me want to cry.  And kill puppies.  

[Jebman]

Looks like the usual suspects. Winchester, Westminster, maryland convergence region should get annihilated.

 

DCA should do well.

[RickinBaltimore]

What's the EURO showing for BWI, about the same I'm guessing?