1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[mappy]

So about a tenth drier overall than the RGEM...

 

RGEM and Canadian are the same model

[NorthArlington101]

This north trend sucks...soon there will be a sharp gradient over Woodbridge VA and Scranton PA will be getting 8-14"

where is the gradient now?

[gymengineer]

RGEM and Canadian are the same model

Nope-- there's the GGEM and RGEM. They actually print out different solutions. 

The RGEM totals were posted earlier and were around 0.5" at DCA and 0.6" in Baltimore.. 

 

Edited to add: It's kind of like the GFS vs. the NAM.

[84 Hour NAM]

RGEM and Canadian are the same model

 

No, GGEM and Canadian are the same model. RGEM is the high res short range model

[mappy]

oops, my bad. ok thanks

[clueless]

This north trend sucks...soon there will be a sharp gradient over Woodbridge VA and Scranton PA will be getting 8-14"

Ugh. You think we can hold?

[Sparky]

You know Sparky will be close to that. He lives on his own little mountain.

ha ha, not quite, but besides this will be more of a fringe effect here.

[nj2va]

Isn't the RGEM better to use now vs. the GGEM?

[snow.]

sweet site....2/16/96

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&model=NAM212&map=850HGHT&sort=FINAL

[H2O]

During and after

I meant today. When will temps really start to fall off from 50 today?

[84 Hour NAM]

I actually think the evolution on the CMC looks pretty sweet

[ravensrule]

ha ha, not quite, but besides this will be more of a fringe effect here.

I bet you get 10".

[Subtropics]

Growing *increasingly* worried about north trend. 

 

Boston still wins either way. That is the snow capital of the east coast as far as I am concerned. 

[snow.]

12z DCA

 

NAM - 0.47"

GFS - 0.41"

RGEM - ~0.45"

GGEM - 0.35 - 0.4" - est

[WxUSAF]

Look at those ratios.

BUFKIT ratios are always too high.  I very much doubt storm average ratios of 18-22:1.  That said, I think 15:1 is quite possible tomorrow. I'd still hedge around 12-13:1 for most of the storm. 

[Scraff]

I'm so pumped for how things have trended in the last 24 hrs. Is there a chance this thing trends even wetter? Can someone here pull out a fluffy foot?

[olafminesaw]

I'm so pumped for how things have trended in the last 24 hrs. Is there a chance this thing trends even wetter? Can someone here pull out a fluffy foot?

If anyone has fluffy feet, they need to get that checked out by a medical professional immediately.

[NorthArlington101]

I'm so pumped for how things have trended in the last 24 hrs. Is there a chance this thing trends even wetter? Can someone here pull out a fluffy foot?

In the northwest areas I'd bet my weenie life that someone squeezes out a foot.

[WxUSAF]

GFS soundings look ideal for dendrite growth.  -15C in the snow growth zone between 700-600mb.  NAM soundings don't look quite as good, but fairly close.  Good dendrite growth will help with ratios. 

[Interstate]

If this storm pans out.... Let's just remember that the Euro was the last to catch on.

[NorthArlington101]

If this storm pans out.... Let's just remember that the Euro was the last to catch on.

I will never say I need the EURO on board again.

[Sparky]

ha ha Cobb has 9.1" out here with temps between 11-15 for the most of it...hmmmm.

[Ji]

We need the Tuck Rule

 

But again, the storm is not developing on the polar boundary, its on the arctic boundary, which has to press south. This means a big problem cause this will not be down to va beach in the morning. The problem is that as ugly as this looks now, a classic 6-12 storm in the I-95 corridor, a more tucked in storm could lead to the doubling of those amounts

[Ji]

I will never say I need the EURO on board again.

yes you will

[NorthArlington101]

yes you will

you are correct. I will revert to my weenie ways in 5 days after our event.

[mappy]

ha ha Cobb has 9.1" out here with temps between 11-15 for the most of it...hmmmm.

 

I wouldn't pay attention to the snow amount Cobb puts, only the qpf amount. Then go from there.

 

NAM gave westminster .505 qpf, even at 15:1 that's 7.5" of snow

[Bob Chill]

Euro kills the gfs with southern stream. I will only get excited for those if the euro is on board. Euro does not do well with ns vorts that have rapid development potential or when energy digs into the sw at long leads.

Euro made its predicted step last night. Guidance is overwhelming again so another gradual step is coming up shortly.

[stormtracker]

We need the Tuck Rule

 

But again, the storm is not developing on the polar boundary, its on the arctic boundary, which has to press south. This means a big problem cause this will not be down to va beach in the morning. The problem is that as ugly as this looks now, a classic 6-12 storm in the I-95 corridor, a more tucked in storm could lead to the doubling of those amounts

wtf?

[mappy]

12z GFS Cobb for Westminster

 

.473 12z to 6z

[yoda]

wtf?

 

I am guessing that is JB (Accuweather one)