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1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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snow.

snow.

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True, but I was using the 50% "rule" since we know QPF on NAM is usually overdone for us

 

And also surface is like -6C which is in the 20-25 range with decent 850s... too bad its the NAM

 

yeah...I was just posting verbatim...I would never forecast based on NAM QPF unless it wasn't an outlier...

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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yeah...I was just posting verbatim...I would never forecast based on NAM QPF unless it wasn't an outlier...

Right now I'd lean towards the GFS as the euro seems to be on the low side compared to the GFS and UKMET (a model I rarely look at).   This event is sort of what the analogs had been hinting at last week a light to moderate event, the latter if we get lucky.

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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Despite it being the NAM/SREF, i like what the runs there just did with regards to qpf output and vort intensity. As Wes stated, our vort is impressive, just things are on the drier side overall. However, a storm that puts down .15-.2 or even .25 QPF would make for a moderate event with the cold sfc/850's modeled. True cold smoke as Bob calls it could be in the cards. Mini 1/30/10 situation. 

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Ian

Ian

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The vort ends up looking a lot like the vort that we got our snow earlier in the month. Can't be as wet as the dewpoints and precipitable water values available are quite a bit lower.

Was thinking that too earlier (vort/trough). Easy type of event to get screwed by but I kinda like it.
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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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Was thinking that too earlier (vort/trough). Easy type of event to get screwed by but I kinda like it.

Besides the meteorological origins of it, technically we both are the reason for the birth of this thread. We know you have great luck, and I definitely think I will assist in taking us to the promise land. 

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snow.

snow.

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Right now I'd lean towards the GFS as the euro seems to be on the low side compared to the GFS and UKMET (a model I rarely look at).   This event is sort of what the analogs had been hinting at last week a light to moderate event, the latter if we get lucky.

 

The analogs have been good...they did show a lot of 0.5" type solutions which is one reason why we are both cautious....I am seeing 1/22/78 showing up a lot now which had a 4.1" event in the window....seeing more of these moderate storm analogs show up gives me more confidence that one of these solutions could happen

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Ian

Ian

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Besides the meteorological origins of it, technically we both are the reason for the birth of this thread. We know you have great luck, and I definitely think I will assist in taking us to the promise land.

True. I remain spiritual thread starter. I only start threads for good events. :P

So far this winter we have had decent short term trends. It might be good this didn't really even look like much till Friday nightish.

I'm tentatively planning on it snowing enough to take pics.

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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True. I remain spiritual thread starter. I only start threads for good events. :P

So far this winter we have had decent short term trends. It might be good this didn't really even look like much till Friday nightish.

I'm tentatively planning on it snowing enough to take pics.

Definitely looks plausible. Like the 1/22/78 analog Matt just talked about. 4.1" in that event, cut that in half and great pics are still in order from the mall.

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snow.

snow.

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Despite it being the NAM/SREF, i like what the runs there just did with regards to qpf output and vort intensity. As Wes stated, our vort is impressive, just things are on the drier side overall. However, a storm that puts down .15-.2 or even .25 QPF would make for a moderate event with the cold sfc/850's modeled. True cold smoke as Bob calls it could be in the cards. Mini 1/30/10 situation. 

 

you are funny sometimes.....the euro is showing like 0.04" of precip and you are talking about a 7" storm  in a nino with a huge block and a classic 50-50....

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snow.

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Definitely looks plausible. Like the 1/22/78 analog Matt just talked about. 4.1" in that event, cut that in half and great pics are still in order from the mall.

 

that is showing up down the line a bit...havent seen it in this window I dont think

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Ian

Ian

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Definitely looks plausible. Like the 1/22/78 analog Matt just talked about. 4.1" in that event, cut that in half and great pics are still in order from the mall.

At this rate 1" will do. And more than that is still a bit of a fantasy. Possible.. Hard to say its a high likelihood at this point.
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At this rate 1" will do. And more than that is still a bit of a fantasy. Possible.. Hard to say its a high likelihood at this point.

 

I think the one thing we kind of know is it wont go to our north...which is nice

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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you are funny sometimes.....the euro is showing like 0.04" of precip and you are talking about a 7" storm  in a nino with a huge block and a classic 50-50....

Well Matt, mini would entail a storm of that magnitude obviously on a smaller scale. I know you love to hug the euro til the last possible second, which even you have admitted. I am on with the GFS for this one, and it has performed solidly in the SR-MR as of late. Additionally, I know the difficulty to succeed in our neighborhood with ratios is partly an issue, but with 850's near the optimal range for the best dendritic growth, honestly 16-20:1 ratios are not to be ruled out. Say what you please but to me, mini is like cutting something in half, 1/30 was a 5-7" storm so 2.5-3.5" is doable in my opinion. In no way did I say its likely. I know some places in that storm received 10-12+ in S MD, but parts of Delaware could score a solid hit with this one as well. 

 

Point being, its a decent vort with an ok low track, optimal 850's, a precursor cold airmass where everything will stick, and an ok h5 set-up to allow a 2-4" storm if things go well. Not much wrong with that. Cold smoke for sure, which was my relation to 1/30. 

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snow.

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Well Matt, mini would entail a storm of that magnitude obviously on a smaller scale. I know you love to hug the euro til the last possible second, which even you have admitted. I am on with the GFS for this one, and it has performed solidly in the SR-MR as of late. Additionally, I know the difficulty to succeed in our neighborhood with ratios is partly an issue, but with 850's near the optimal range for the best dendritic growth, honestly 16-20:1 ratios are not to be ruled out. Say what you please but to me, mini is like cutting something in half, 1/30 was a 5-7" storm so 2.5-3.5" is doable in my opinion. In no way did I say its likely. I know some places in that storm received 10-12+ in S MD, but parts of Delaware could score a solid hit with this one as well. 

 

Point being, its a decent vort with an ok low track, optimal 850's, a precursor cold airmass where everything will stick, and an ok h5 set-up to allow a 2-4" storm if things go well. Not much wrong with that. Cold smoke for sure, which was my relation to 1/30. 

 

I think it is too early to "lock" anything in.....more than likely this is like one of the hundreds of small events that happened in pedestrian winters that we have never heard of....not to say those events were bad...Your unbridled enthusiasm can be refreshing juxtaposed to a lot the pessimism here myself incuded, but it has gotten me 13" in 3 years...

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DDweatherman

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I think it is too early to "lock" anything in.....more than likely this is like one of the hundreds of small events that happened in pedestrian winters that we have never heard of....not to say those events were bad...Your unbridled enthusiasm can be refreshing juxtaposed to a lot the pessimism here myself incuded, but it has gotten me 13" in 3 years...

Trust me there are events that I don't like, but typically for those I just don't post a lot about them. It has really been a thorn in the back that pessimism is the way to go after our last few runs at it since 09-10. 

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