1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[Kmlwx]

snow is missing as well. Chill and Ian are all good, but like to have Wes and snow anoint the storm to keep confidence at a consistently high level.

Wes will probably remain relatively quiet until his article comes out. 

[clskinsfan]

12Z NAM: Check out the temps!!

 

IAD:

 

140121/1600Z 28 04010KT 25.8F SNOW 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
140121/1700Z 29 02013KT 23.3F SNOW 20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 30 02015KT 20.7F SNOW 20:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 19:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140121/1900Z 31 01015KT 18.9F SNOW 18:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 19:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
140121/2000Z 32 01014KT 17.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 19:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 33 01013KT 17.0F SNOW 21:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 19:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0
140121/2200Z 34 36014KT 15.9F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 19:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
140121/2300Z 35 36015KT 15.0F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 19:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 36 35015KT 14.4F SNOW 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 19:1| 8.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140122/0100Z 37 35015KT 14.1F SNOW 16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 19:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0
140122/0200Z 38 35015KT 13.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 19:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 100| 0| 0
140122/0300Z 39 35016KT 14.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 18:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

 

140121/1700Z 29 03012KT 22.7F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 30 02015KT 20.9F SNOW 17:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140121/1900Z 31 02015KT 19.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 18:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0
140121/2000Z 32 02012KT 18.8F SNOW 20:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 18:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 33 01012KT 17.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 18:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0
140121/2200Z 34 01013KT 17.1F SNOW 20:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 18:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0
140121/2300Z 35 01013KT 16.8F SNOW 21:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 19:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 36 36013KT 16.6F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 19:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140122/0100Z 37 36013KT 16.1F SNOW 21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 19:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0
140122/0200Z 38 35014KT 15.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 19:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
140122/0300Z 39 34015KT 14.6F SNOW 22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 19:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
140122/0400Z 40 34015KT 13.7F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 19:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

 

140121/1200Z 36 06007KT 17.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140121/1500Z 39 04010KT 15.9F SNOW 20:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 20:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 42 02012KT 14.3F SNOW 25:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 22:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 45 36013KT 13.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 21:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 48 34012KT 13.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 20:1| 7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0

 

DCA:

 

140121/1500Z 39 04011KT 22.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 42 02013KT 19.5F SNOW 19:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.103 17:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 45 36015KT 17.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 16:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 48 35016KT 14.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 15:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140122/0300Z 51 34014KT 12.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 15:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0

[mappy]

What's the start time of this event? Are we going to be facing another carmageddon?

 

most models have precip starting north/west by 12z (7am) and lasting until after 7pm.

 

So plan accordingly!

[Kmlwx]

50-70% even

Yeah but look how splotchy the dark blue is. Generally that means it's on the lower end of the range. If you had a giant swath of solid blue without gaps I'd say 70% was close somewhere but it's not. Regardless I'm not expecting a foot IMBY

[Ji]

sucks that the american models are so bad. I am sure CWG would love make a post in the next 30 minutes but with the European running at 12:45.........

 

If we just trusted our american models, we wouldnt have to till 1:30 to make a lunch time update haha

[ThreeRedheads]

12Z NAM: Check out the temps!!

 

IAD:

 

140121/1600Z 28 04010KT 25.8F SNOW 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0

140121/1700Z 29 02013KT 23.3F SNOW 20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 30 02015KT 20.7F SNOW 20:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 19:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140121/1900Z 31 01015KT 18.9F SNOW 18:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 19:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0

140121/2000Z 32 01014KT 17.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 19:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 33 01013KT 17.0F SNOW 21:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 19:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0

140121/2200Z 34 36014KT 15.9F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 19:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0

140121/2300Z 35 36015KT 15.0F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 19:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 36 35015KT 14.4F SNOW 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 19:1| 8.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140122/0100Z 37 35015KT 14.1F SNOW 16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 19:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0

140122/0200Z 38 35015KT 13.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 19:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 100| 0| 0

140122/0300Z 39 35016KT 14.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 18:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

 

140121/1700Z 29 03012KT 22.7F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 30 02015KT 20.9F SNOW 17:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140121/1900Z 31 02015KT 19.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 18:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0

140121/2000Z 32 02012KT 18.8F SNOW 20:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 18:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 33 01012KT 17.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 18:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0

140121/2200Z 34 01013KT 17.1F SNOW 20:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 18:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0

140121/2300Z 35 01013KT 16.8F SNOW 21:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 19:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 36 36013KT 16.6F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 19:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140122/0100Z 37 36013KT 16.1F SNOW 21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 19:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0

140122/0200Z 38 35014KT 15.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 19:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0

140122/0300Z 39 34015KT 14.6F SNOW 22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 19:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0

140122/0400Z 40 34015KT 13.7F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 19:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

 

140121/1200Z 36 06007KT 17.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140121/1500Z 39 04010KT 15.9F SNOW 20:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 20:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 42 02012KT 14.3F SNOW 25:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 22:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 45 36013KT 13.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 21:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 48 34012KT 13.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 20:1| 7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0

 

DCA:

 

140121/1500Z 39 04011KT 22.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 42 02013KT 19.5F SNOW 19:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.103 17:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 45 36015KT 17.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 16:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 48 35016KT 14.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 15:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140122/0300Z 51 34014KT 12.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 15:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0

Look at those ratios.

[ravensrule]

Wes will probably remain relatively quiet until his article comes out. 

He never comments at all while he is writing an article until it comes out.

[84 Hour NAM]

sucks that the american models are so bad. I am sure CWG would love make a post in the next 30 minutes but with the European running at 12:45.........

 

If we just trusted our american models, we wouldnt have to till 1:30 to make a lunch time update haha

 

RGEM is Canadian 

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

most models have precip starting north/west by 12z (7am) and lasting until after 7pm.

 

So plan accordingly!

I'm taking off.   I might make it to the harbor, but I won't make it back. 

[yoda]

sucks that the american models are so bad. I am sure CWG would love make a post in the next 30 minutes but with the European running at 12:45.........

 

If we just trusted our american models, we wouldnt have to till 1:30 to make a lunch time update haha

 

They already said general 3-6 at 10:45

[mappy]

I'm taking off.   I might make it to the harbor, but I won't make it back. 

 

yup, I have told my entire office not to drive in to work tomorrow.

[Grothar of Herndon]

Look at those ratios.

 

 

0.47 for our backyard at 19:1. Wow!

[Ian]

[yoda]

Untitled-7.jpg

Meh... only a 30 degree temp drop in 24 hrs

[gunny23]

figures it finally snows here when I will be flying out.  3:30 out of IAD - hoping it gets cxld so I don't miss out on a jebwalk oppty

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

This has the look of a classic snowstorm .  Would not surprise me if the QPF trends continue up.

Vort looks amazing!

[NeffsvilleWx]

I'm taking off.   I might make it to the harbor, but I won't make it back.

 

 

yup, I have told my entire office not to drive in to work tomorrow.

You guys want a ride? I'm taking the Escape tomorrow.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Untitled-7.jpg

hard to make sense of those maps at first.  why would they use blues and purples for warm and reds and oranges for cold?

[H2O]

yup, I have told my entire office not to drive in to work tomorrow.

There will still be 15 wrecks on 83

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

 

 

You guys want a ride? I'm taking the Escape tomorrow.

Nothing that urgent in the office in the early am.  Once the media hypes this tonight I think everything will close or close early at least.

[Ian]

hard to make sense of those maps at first. why would they use blues and purples for warm and reds and oranges for cold?

I think it's mostly because the color scale is like 200 degrees so it cycles through colors more than once.

[mappy]

 

 

You guys want a ride? I'm taking the Escape tomorrow.

 

Nope! I'm staying home with the girl (see banter thread)

[H2O]

When are temps supposed to crash? After sunset?

[Ji]

GFS has us below freezing through early next week so far

[yoda]

When are temps supposed to crash? After sunset?

During and after

[aldie 22]

GFS has us below freezing through early next week so far

This could be a real test to see how much effect several inches of snow can have on air temps

[snow.]

Canadian has around 0.35" for DC...0.5"+ for Balt and northeast MD

[RDM]

NWS just issued WSW for W. VA. 

[snow.]

This north trend sucks...soon there will be a sharp gradient over Woodbridge VA and Scranton PA will be getting 8-14"

[gymengineer]

Canadian has around 0.35" for DC...0.5"+ for Balt and northeast MD

So about a tenth drier overall than the RGEM...