1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[MN Transplant]

I know at one point someone shared a webpage that when each panel of the NAM/GFS was generated.  Does anyone have the page?

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

[ravensrule]

what time do the canadiens run their 12z rgem?

I think it is around 10:20 or so.

[PDIII]

The NAM sim radar is a thing of beauty. 15 hours of snow sounds good to me.

No wasted flakes either.... great temp profiles.  Even if it is light to moderate... we do a half inch per hour for 15 hours... That would be remarkable.     

[Ji]

this has potential to be better than the Jan 26 2011 storm. The totals may not be as high and the dynamics not as good but the cold temps///not wasting precip and the cold to follow will probably make this a better all around event

[PDIII]

No wasted flakes either.... great temp profiles.  Even if it is light to moderate... we do a half inch per hour for 15 hours... That would be remarkable.     

And then lets be conservative... half inch per hour... 9 hours... think about it.  If the models trend a little wetter this afternoon, we should see warning criteria... 4-8 is pretty reasonable.  

[JW21]

Definitely surprised to get this text and email from Fairfax City.

 

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the City of Fairfax.

 

Winter Storm Watch issued January 20 at 3:33AM EST until January 21 at 11:00PM EST by NWS

 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...

Sent by City of Fairfax to Severe Weather 24/7 (e-mail accounts, pagers, cell) through eMAS

[nj2va]

again

I know Wes may not like it, but that doesn't mean it isn't good

it has been stellar wrt our 2 main events and even showed the finger of doom to the north of me before the early Dec. event

 

yup agreed, you've been honking the RGEM all winter.  I was skeptical at first but after it led the way with the 1/2 event, it seems to be leading the way for tomorrow's event as well.  All hail the RGEM.  

[nj2va]

Zoomed in qpf from 12z NAM for posterity:

 

0.5 ohhh so close to DC.

 

Credit:  WxBell (www.weatherbell.com)

[nflwxman]

Mason Dixon year... 

It is a bummer, but expected it. Northern vorts-- never trust them down here. 

You still have the Euro on your side (kind of). 

[yoda]

You have to throw out the outliers, which was basically the entire ARW suite the last time I looked at them.

I threw out the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes at 03z... mean was 9 to 9.5 inches at all 3 airports

[Ian]

this has potential to be better than the Jan 26 2011 storm. The totals may not be as high and the dynamics not as good but the cold temps///not wasting precip and the cold to follow will probably make this a better all around event

Jan 2011 wasn't the best storm here. Unless you like to get soaked while it's snowing and have everything melt instantly after.

[snowdude]

I threw out the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes at 03z... mean was 9 to 9.5 inches at all 3 airports

Hey Yoda, I feel dumb asking and like I should know how to access them, but how do you get those SREF plumes with the mean and all? Is it a pay site?

 

Was curious what it showed for Salisbury, MD? IMBY post I know.

[nj2va]

12z Hires NAM.  Jackpot Wes. 

 

[Ian]

Glad to see things are coming together for the 6-10 stripe.

[olafminesaw]

Hey Yoda, I feel dumb asking and like I should know how to access them, but how do you get those SREF plumes with the mean and all? Is it a pay site?

 

Was curious what it showed for Salisbury, MD? IMBY post I know.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131008&RT=15&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=IAD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.569377679370014&mLON=-76.322437890625&mTYP=roadmap

[Heisy]

Rgem continues looking real good

[MN Transplant]

Jan 2011 wasn't the best storm here. Unless you like to get soaked while it's snowing and have everything melt instantly after.

You guys had thundersnow, though, right? That kicks it up a notch.

[Ian]

You guys had thundersnow, though, right? That kicks it up a notch.

Yeah, some.. plus lots of fake reports of thundersnow. It was solid at peak but it was a big mess to walk around in.  The puddles were deeper than the snow down near the White House.

[Kmlwx]

I'll take white smoke/high ratios over white mud any day. Then again...snow is snow. 

[Huffwx]

You still have the Euro on your side (kind of). 

 

 

True.. it had .3

 

I think the NAM dries up and reforms JUST to our east and north. Seems legit considering the set up. All guidance has trended north and I've expected that-- so it's not a bad thing.

 

.3 on the EC would be 4 inches. 

[Ian]

I'll take white smoke/high ratios over white mud any day. Then again...snow is snow. 

I love a good cementing. Jan 2011 was just like 2-3 too warm in the city. I'm sure most people say I'm a dope for not liking the event.. it was fine.  It was just really wet.  Tomorrow snow the type you have to get at quick before the wind destroys it.

[clskinsfan]

RGEM is very similar to the NAM. Maybe even a little wetter. This is gonna be a widespread 6+ event. Best storm for the region since 2010 for sure.

[ravensrule]

Rgem continues looking real good

The same as last night?

[WxUSAF]

Jan 2011 had as much liquid equivalent as Feb 5-6, 2010.  Difference is 5:1 ratios instead of the 10-12:1 we had in 2010. 

[Kmlwx]

I love a good cementing. Jan 2011 was just like 2-3 too warm in the city. I'm sure most people say I'm a dope for not liking the event.. it was fine.  It was just really wet.  Tomorrow snow the type you have to get at quick before the wind destroys it.

I could be biased because Jan 2011 had me w/o power for close to a week. Was the final straw that made us get a generator. 

[Ian]

Jan 2011 had as much liquid equivalent as Feb 5-6, 2010.  Difference is 5:1 ratios instead of the 10-12:1 we had in 2010. 

I think at least 1/3 was rain and we never dropped below freezing at DCA

[ravensrule]

I think at least 1/3 was rain and we never dropped below freezing at DCA

It was totally different up here, we only had a little mixing in the morning and the evening part was a total bomb. I ended up with 14" combined.

[mappy]

anyone got a NAM snowfall map?

[ravensrule]

[gymengineer]

Jan 2011 had as much liquid equivalent as Feb 5-6, 2010.  Difference is 5:1 ratios instead of the 10-12:1 we had in 2010. 

Well, your point is a good one, and still stands... just pointing out that liquid totals from 2/5-6/10 were totally wonky for DCA, etc. 

Area-wide, liquid totals for 2/5-6/10 were actually 2.5-3.5" (Sterling reported over 3", and Cocorahs, etc. support the 2.5-3" totals), while they were around 1.5" for 1/26/11.