1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[stormtracker]

We might be in for a real, classic snowstorm.   I mean, the snow will stick with ease and now damn rain/snow line to worry about.   SOmebody pinch me. 

[Bob Chill]

Love the run hate the nam. Rgem'ish look very intriguing.

[Ji]

this might be one of those normal 4-8 1980's type snowstorm that we never see anymore. Its been 1-3 or 20-35 but nothing in between

[PhineasC]

this might be one of those normal 4-8 1980's type snowstorm that we never see anymore. Its been 1-3 or 20-35 but nothing in between

We've already had two 4-6" storms this winter.

[HighStakes]

Looking like a good duration event.

[DCAlexandria]

this might be one of those normal 4-8 1980's type snowstorm that we never see anymore. Its been 1-3 or 20-35 but nothing in between

Not those of us who live in civilization. :-)

[MN Transplant]

NAM'd

 

[Interstate]

I know at one point someone shared a webpage that when each panel of the NAM/GFS was generated.  Does anyone have the page?

[mitchnick]

wow....999 over SE NC on the NAM at 33 hrs.....no wonder it's so wet

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[H2O]

We've already had two 4-6" storms this winter.

 

facts mean little to Ji when its about snow

[Ji]

wow....999 over SE NC on the NAM at 33 hrs.....no wonder it's so wet

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

RGEM takes the lead?

[Ji]

We've already had two 4-6" storms this winter.

tell that to Ian and Zwyts

[Huffwx]

Hey I might get some snow showers from this run. So much for that winter storm watch.

 

 

NAM is just back in line with everyone else-- it was an outlier. 

 

I'm hoping we can get .20 l/e out of it. 

[mitchnick]

RGEM takes the lead?

again

I know Wes may not like it, but that doesn't mean it isn't good

it has been stellar wrt our 2 main events and even showed the finger of doom to the north of me before the early Dec. event

[TowsonWeather]

RGEM takes the lead?

 

CRAS is clearly the winner for this storm ;-)

[needbiggerboat]

Solid 12z nam run for DC. Looks like treacherous travel conditions overnight to wed

[psuhoffman]

You have to throw out the outliers, which was basically the entire ARW suite the last time I looked at them.

The spread is a little more evenly divided now between the ARW and NMM's.  Still split between some really dry and really wet runs...but its not only the ARW's going nuts now. 

[ravensrule]

RGEM takes the lead?

Like it has done all winter. 

[olafminesaw]

I know at one point someone shared a webpage that when each panel of the NAM/GFS was generated.  Does anyone have the page?

Instantweathermaps.com is the fastest if thats what you mean.

[Disc]

Huffwx, on 20 Jan 2014 - 09:21 AM, said:

NAM is just back in line with everyone else-- it was an outlier. 

 

I'm hoping we can get .20 l/e out of it. 

 

Bring on the run of the mill WWA's! Maybe I'll get an inch out of this.

[Huffwx]

Bring on the run of the mill WWA's! Maybe I'll get an inch out of this.

 

 

Mason Dixon year... 

It is a bummer, but expected it. Northern vorts-- never trust them down here. 

[Bob Chill]

Rgem has been a good short range model. For trends and qpf stripes. A little heavy on totals but it has been way better than the nam this year.

[mitchnick]

OK, hold down the fort for me today, I'm going out

I've got to repair damages done to my marriage over plumbing yesterday 

[dtk]

again

I know Wes may not like it, but that doesn't mean it isn't good

it has been stellar wrt our 2 main events and even showed the finger of doom to the north of me before the early Dec. event

I think people are probably going overboard on how great the RGEM is based on anecdotal evidence for a few events.  However, there is no denying that it slaughters the NAM in terms of QPF guidance, one example here for December 2013 (CMC is actually the RGEM, NAM is the 12km parent domain):

[Ji]

OK, hold down the fort for me today, I'm going out

I've got to repair damages done to my marriage over plumbing yesterday 

what? Did you take a dump in your bed or something?

[Ji]

what time do the canadiens run their 12z rgem?

[needbiggerboat]

OK, hold down the fort for me today, I'm going out

I've got to repair damages done to my marriage over plumbing yesterday 

Communcation and expectations over laying pipe typically key marital issues

[North Balti Zen]

what? Did you take a dump in your bed or something?

 

They were working on plumbing together. Not a euphemism. 

[clskinsfan]

The NAM sim radar is a thing of beauty. 15 hours of snow sounds good to me.

[Ji]

i dont think its going to work out. The CFSv2 has us really dry this week