1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[CAPE]

Maybe I can get a real answer in the morning, is there a reason that these western areas are still getting more snow other then they just do? I thought this was redeveloping more to the east. This is a serious question by the way.

Thats not the case, unless you are talking way west in the mountains. IMO, and most of the guidance at this point, and even WPC maps, show best potential for heavier area of snow from just NE of RIC, through S MD over to lower Delmarva and coastal NJ.

 

Overall its a fairly general broad brush moderate snow event for the area..

[PDIII]

I just saw the NAM... -10 to -20 C in the 850s... what did we have for Dec 2009 when we got those crazy ratios?

 

Also... I have been out of the loop cause I really am disinterested when it is dry and cold... and I should know this... but did DCA get there 2" last storm?

[TowsonWeather]

Maybe I can get a real answer in the morning, is there a reason that these western areas are still getting more snow other then they just do? I thought this was redeveloping more to the east. This is a serious question by the way.

Elevation, temps, regional geography.

Not every events favors north and west, but the majority do.

[NorthArlington101]

Elevation, temps, regional geography.

Not every events favors north and west, but the majority do.

Thanks! 

[Bob Chill]

Maybe I can get a real answer in the morning, is there a reason that these western areas are still getting more snow other then they just do? I thought this was redeveloping more to the east. This is a serious question by the way.

They are favored with ns storms in general. The 6z gfs h7 panels shows an area of enhanced vv's (vertical velocities) near the Winchester tomorrow am.

The western areas don't get affected with downsloping like we do in the piedmont and coastal plain either.

With all this being said, I personally doubt western areas will jackpot when all is said and done except for areas favored by upslope. Somebody closer to the slp will likely be the winner. We're all in a good spot. Parrs ridge and n-ne md may be the typical favored area but dc and se could easily win as the low strengthens with this setup. We won't know until it happens

[NorthArlington101]

Haven't seen DT's map here, so I'll post it.

Salisbury and Boston winner winner chicken dinner on first call. 3-6 would have me in a very good place.

[Bob Chill]

The one thing disagree with on dt's map is the uniform sw-ne alignment in our area. Based on the guidance I'm seeing our area will have a more w-e alignment as the ul energy passes and then turns the corner. Visually I think a field hockey stick shape is more likely

[NorthArlington101]

I'm hoping the majority of people in Boston aren't idiots and and actually check their better news outlets over TWC, if they end up getting a high total, and TWC has them expecting only 1-3 at the moment, heads might roll.

[CAPE]

The one thing disagree with on dt's map is the uniform sw-ne alignment in our area. Based on the guidance I'm seeing our area will have a more w-e alignment as the ul energy passes and then turns the corner. Visually I think a field hockey stick shape is more likely

Agree..his 3-6 area needs to grow a "foot" projecting westward.

[CAPE]

They are favored with ns storms in general. The 6z gfs h7 panels shows an area of enhanced vv's (vertical velocities) near the Winchester tomorrow am.

The western areas don't get affected with downsloping like we do in the piedmont and coastal plain either.

With all this being said, I personally doubt western areas will jackpot when all is said and done except for areas favored by upslope. Somebody closer to the slp will likely be the winner. We're all in a good spot. Parrs ridge and n-ne md may be the typical favored area but dc and se could easily win as the low strengthens with this setup. We won't know until it happens

I didnt look at 6z but the h7 VVs on the 0z run were impressive for a large portion of N VA, C MD and much of Eastern shore iand SNJ.

[MN Transplant]

DCA - for posterity.  Also, people need to not freak out that it is going to be in the 50s today.

 

[WxUSAF]

DCA - for posterity.  Also, people need to not freak out that it is going to be in the 50s today.

 

pcompare.zoom.png

Love such a nice upward trend.   Given the depiction of the vort passage even a few days ago, we probably should have seen this had more potential upside. 

[H2O]

DCA - for posterity.  Also, people need to not freak out that it is going to be in the 50s today.

 

pcompare.zoom.png

Certainly a nice trend. Who cares what today's temps are. It will get plenty cold in time for this to stick right off the bat

[mappy]

Cobb QPF output for Westminster

 

00z

GFS: .389 12z to 3z

NAM: .112 14z to 20z

 

06z

GFS: .472 12z to 3z

NAM: .385 13z to 2z

 

solid event

[Bob Chill]

DCA - for posterity. Also, people need to not freak out that it is going to be in the 50s today.

It's a net positive. It will release copious soil moisture and prime the atmosphere. I'll be 18 temp and 29 dp at the height.

[Ji]

I hate calling this a clipper.

[BTRWx]

I hate calling this a clipper.

I'll be one of the first to admit being confused why this system seems so different as far as potential?

[Avdave]

I really like where I am in this system.  Either way its going to be since event here

[Disc]

The local weather stations are going with 0.5" to 1.5" here. We have a WSW for 4-6". They'll update it about 3 hours before it starts and they'll still mess it up.

[aldie 22]

I really like where I am in this system.  Either way its going to be since event here

When will it be ok to brine the roads Dave?

[MN Transplant]

Hard to argue with this

 

 

[Huffwx]

The local weather stations are going with 0.5" to 1.5" here. We have a WSW for 4-6". They'll update it about 3 hours before it starts and they'll still mess it up.

The local weather stations are going with 0.5" to 1.5" here. We have a WSW for 4-6". They'll update it about 3 hours before it starts and they'll still mess it up.

I'm worried we get an inch....as depicted by Rgem

[Wonderdog]

What is nice is that we can have a winter storm during the day when we can see it.

[Disc]

Huffwx, on 20 Jan 2014 - 08:06 AM, said:

I'm worried we get an inch....as depicted by Rgem

 

I want atleast warning criteria snow and I'll be happy. Anything less will be a bust!

[EastCoast NPZ]

I hope that GFS vv map verifies.  Max area includes me.

 

This has a real possiblilty of giving me the best 4-day stretch of weather since Feb 2010.  Highs Tue - Fri are 22, 16, 21, and 26F.  If we can get 4+ tomorrow, then I couldn't ask for better winter weather here.

[Bob Chill]

I'll be one of the first to admit being confused why this system seems so different as far as potential?

Perfect vort track and amplification. Arctic air certainly helps.

We have to fight hard to get on to dig and redevelop off the coast. It's pretty rare at our latitude. Happens a lot in new England though.

[EastCoast NPZ]

What is nice is that we can have a winter storm during the day when we can see it.

 

What is nice is having a storm during the day and it actually sticks.

[BTRWx]

Perfect vort track and amplification. Arctic air certainly helps.

We have to fight hard to get on to dig and redevelop off the coast. It's pretty rare at our latitude. Happens a lot in new England though.

Does anyone know of a similar pattern of such a track with the cold air?

[jnis]

Perfect vort track and amplification. Arctic air certainly helps.

We have to fight hard to get on to dig and redevelop off the coast. It's pretty rare at our latitude. Happens a lot in new England though.

It happened here sometime in the 2000's...I wish I could remember the year, but I'm sure someone here knows. We got 7-8" from a clipper. I also think it happened 94.

[BTRWx]

It happened here sometime in the 2000's...I wish I could remember the year, but I'm sure someone here knows. We got 7-8" from a clipper. I also think it happened 94.

read my mind