1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[blueapple]

You're right-- edited post to reflect that. .5 is confined to WVA. Guess that's a sign I should go to sleep.

[snow.]

You're right-- edited post to reflect that. .5 is confined to WVA. Guess that's a sign I should go to sleep.

 

but it is much wetter than 0z when it was the driest guidance.....

[yoda]

0.25"...I think everyone is less than 0.5"...many in the 0.35" - 0.4" I think

I think most of us are close to .4... looked very nice and loved the golf reference. Should be an interesting LWX disco... hopefully they downplay as we seem to do better when they do that

[yoda]

Winter Storm Watches are up for everyone I think (looking at the AFMs)

[clueless]

I think most of us are close to .4... looked very nice and loved the golf reference. Should be an interesting LWX disco... hopefully they downplay as we seem to do better when they do that

Yeah. The less from them the better. Don't want to jinx this.

[snow.]

Winter Storm Watches are up for everyone I think (looking at the AFMs)

 

yup...watches up for everyone

[MDstorm]

Winter Storm Watches are up for everyone I think (looking at the AFMs)

Yup.

 

 

 

This storm looks legit. 

 

MDstorm

[yoda]

Looks like Wind Chill Advisories could be coming for Tues night as well... nice

[blueapple]

Point and click has 3 to 7 for Arlington. Talk about CYA (cover-your-###)!

[Huffwx]

Oddly, my point and click has 3-5 listed on it now, I was more in line w 1-3 down this way. GFS is north, NAM South, EC in the middle..

[yoda]

And on the high note of the 06z RGEM (14 or 15mm of snowfall at DCA per the meteogram)... I am going to sleep

[blueapple]

GFS holding serve so far this run

[snow.]

GFS holding serve so far this run

 

yup...pretty much the same

[yoda]

yup...pretty much the same

Looks like .35 or so? Give or take a few hundreths?

[WxMan1]

06Z GFS a tad wetter...certainly a little wider with the .25" swath on either side of us with amounts closer to .40-.50 across the DC-Balt metro area.

[attml]

NWS just put up a Winter Storm Watch for all of Maryland and most of the Mid-Atlantic.  Calling for 3-7 inches for Anne Arundel County.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
333 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014


DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-052>055-057-501-
502-201645-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.140121T1200Z-140122T0400Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON
333 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE.

* TIMING...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
  BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. THE
  COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
  BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES. TRAVELLING MAY BE DANGEROUS
  TUESDAY. THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED BY THE
  SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
 

[87storms]

...Denver-like weather...mild today...powder tomorrow. Best of both worlds. Win.

[mappy]

Ava Marie went with 3-6 for the Baltimore metro

[tmagan]

06Z RGEM total snow

[snowfan]

That puts our area in the .4-.6 range. Would have to think we would get a solid 5-9 inch snowfall with that. Sweet!

[87storms]

give me powder.  or give me sun.

 

lovin' this 2 day forecast.

[87storms]

be easy on my fellow terps.

[Bob Chill]

Not much spread between rgem, nam, gfs. Solid coverage. I would say a solid .35-.50 for all @ 15:1 looks pretty good as of 6z.

Nobody is left out. Jackpots tbd. Locking in on biggest dc snow since Jan 2011. And its going to be a wintry scene for days following. This storm would make the entire winter bearable if it verifies. I'd say dca has 80-90% odds at topping 3" right now.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not been following. Is there a chance of snow?

[87storms]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

If you love snow, you couldnt ask for better trending of models over the last 24 hours. I know its a completely different set-up but in terms of models zeroing in swiftly just before the storm, this reminds me of Jan 2011. The trough axis with this one goes negative just enough to allow this to strengthen at the coast and throw some moisture back at us. 3-6 with lollies of 4-8 looks like a solid bet and a DC record breaker for sure.

[CAPE]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/

Mount Holly also has 4-6 for much of their FA, a bit lighter in NE PA and NW NJ. Thats a broad area of 4-6, and there will likely be some 8, maybe 10 inch amounts in places.

[Bob Chill]

H7 and slp placement/development on the 6z gfs is a big shot of confidence. Paints a perfect picture of just about everyone having a great event. Jackpots will be localized of course but everyone in nova/md picks up 4"+.

Two big bonuses are temps and time of day. A good night's rest and a cold snowy daytime event. This storm is a perfect gift of weather

[CAPE]

H7 and slp placement/development on the 6z gfs is a big shot of confidence. Paints a perfect picture of just about everyone having a great event. Jackpots will be localized of course but everyone in nova/md picks up 4"+.

Two big bonuses are temps and time of day. A good night's rest and a cold snowy daytime event. This storm is a perfect gift of weather

THIS is why folks should avoid going bipolar with each model run. How many posts did we see about cold and dry and no snow chances, and here it looks like we get it on the front end of the arctic onslaught. That is perfect.

[NorthArlington101]

Maybe I can get a real answer in the morning, is there a reason that these western areas are still getting more snow other then they just do? I thought this was redeveloping more to the east. This is a serious question by the way.