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1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

If you blend everything, you and me and matt and randy are sitting pretty. It's been a great day.

The Euro is still a hair more progressive than the GFS.. it might be right. But we're less than 36 hours from start time and they've all got decent to quality looks at 500/700 etc. So... it's gonna snow, and DCA probably will just miss 3 years.  And we might keep pace with climo? :P

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

DCA

 

NAM - 0.22 - south

GFS - 0.34 - north

Euro - 0.29 - south

 

if you take 80% of a blend at 14:1 ratios you get 3.2" at DCA....not too shabby...I'd probably go 2-4 in a forecast and bump to 3-6" tomorrow as needed

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

DCA

NAM - 0.22 - south

GFS - 0.34 - north

Euro - 0.29 - south

if you take 80% of a blend at 14:1 ratios you get 3.2" at DCA....not too shabby...I'd probably go 2-4 in a forecast and bump to 3-6" tomorrow as needed

Exactly. For now that is a solid call. Were in short range guidance starting tomorrow. This is shaping up to be a fun and cold event.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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The Euro is still a hair more progressive than the GFS.. it might be right. But we're less than 36 hours from start time and they've all got decent to quality looks at 500/700 etc. So... it's gonna snow, and DCA probably will just miss 3 years. And we might keep pace with climo? :P

Yep, when you look at mid and uppers and then add in temps it looks sweet for an areawide event. Jackpots can be discussed tomorow and nowcast time. Love it

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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I wouldn't place too many hard bets on the higher end still other than that this would be quite hard to turn into a hecs or something. The mid lvls are pretty darn solid on the euro as well. We could still see a bump in liquid, particularly the globals which seem to broadbrush too much.  I never really trust the NAM stripe location but it often can be a signal that there will be a heavier zone within the heavier zone.  That heavier stuff back SW could expand NE pretty easily on the Euro going forward.. some of those spots went from almost nothing to .5"+ liquid in one run. Overperformer bug this one has.

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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I wouldn't place too many hard bets on the higher end still other than that this would be quite hard to turn into a hecs or something. The mid lvls are pretty darn solid on the euro as well. We could still see a bump in liquid, particularly the globals which seem to broadbrush too much.  I never really trust the NAM stripe location but it often can be a signal that there will be a heavier zone within the heavier zone.  That heavier stuff back SW could expand NE pretty easily on the Euro going forward.. some of those spots went from almost nothing to .5"+ liquid in one run. Overperformer bug this one has.

Ian, its our thread. I told you, just need it to happen now. 

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snow.

snow.

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Posted

Yep, when you look at mid and uppers and then add in temps it looks sweet for an areawide event. Jackpots can be discussed tomorow and nowcast time. Love it

 

yes..as Will just mentioned to me, QPF will be underdone 30-50% in jackpot area

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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I can't express how happy I am that this is a zero waste event. Once the column staturates everything sticks. That is good stuff right there. Rare stuff for us close in folks nowadays.

Some anonymous member must have shanked the bastard in the French quarter today

footage of the compound raid is starting to leak

 

post-1615-0-44675100-1390199563_thumb.jp

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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I'm ready to crash until tomorrow

anything worth anything on rest of the Euro run so far?

Ns system approaches on fri-sat but gets app sucked. Who cares. We live in a short range world it seems. Next weekend is in play for days. Dream of cold dendrites and icy smoke. We'll sort out next weekend after we're done shoveling

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CheesyPoofs

CheesyPoofs

Posted
Posted

The 1/30/10 event was mentioned earlier, and while Matt rightfully scoffed at the comparison as the set ups are not close to the same, it does have one thing in common with this event: IIRC things just suddenly trended significantly, significantly for the better just 36 hours or less before the storm. Pretty sure as late as 1/28 we weren't expecting significant amounts...by the 0z suite that Friday night it became evident, just 12 hours befor the snow started, that we'd reach warning criteria. Also pretty sure LWX didn't upgrade to a warning until after the snow had started that morning.

Kind of random but as I wait for the 6z NAM (lol), I was just trying to think of other examples where we actually trended for the better in a major way so close to an event.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Ns system approaches on fri-sat but gets app sucked. Who cares. We live in a short range world it seems. Next weekend is in play for days. Dream of cold dendrites and icy smoke. We'll sort out next weekend after we're done shoveling

thx

can I have a goodnight k.........awwwwwwww, never mind!

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

I was working at WFO AKQ during the 1/30/10 event.  The one thing that sticks out in my mind with that event is while the QPF was expected to be higher farther south (central and southern VA), the snow-liquid ratios or SLRs where MUCH more favorable up north into the DC metro region...where the maximum UVVs and moisture were confined well within the -12 to -18C layer, which made for more optimal dendritic snow growth.  While we did see some good accums across cen/srn VA (4-8"), I recall some similar higher end amounts well north into the DMV.

 

Looking at the forecast soundings for the 1/21 event...we again see a more favorable profile aloft across northern VA and especially farther north into MD.

 

 

The 1/30/10 event was mentioned earlier, and while Matt rightfully scoffed at the comparison as the set ups are not close to the same, it does have one thing in common with this event: IIRC things just suddenly trended significantly, significantly for the better just 36 hours or less before the storm. Pretty sure as late as 1/28 we weren't expecting significant amounts...by the 0z suite that Friday night it became evident, just 12 hours befor the snow started, that we'd reach warning criteria. Also pretty sure LWX didn't upgrade to a warning until after the snow had started that morning.

Kind of random but as I wait for the 6z NAM (lol), I was just trying to think of other examples where we actually trended for the better in a major way so close to an event.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

This could be one of those events where the increase in 12-hour snowfall warning criteria for the immediate DC-Balt area could lead to some disgruntled people in the metro region.  Looking at the attached graphic, 3-5" or an average of 4 in 12 hours is *no longer* warning criteria for DC-Balt...or essentially all areas along and east of I-95 from EZF northeast into far NE Maryland.  I'm not sure I agree with placing this area...i.e. east of the fall line (east of the line in the attached image)...in the same criteria as northwest VA and western MD. 

 

In other words, a 3-5" forecast for DC-Balt is now considered an advisory, not a warning.  I think one can make the argument that putting 3-5" on the beltways could (should?) be considered a warning event -- especially since it's been 3 years an counting since DCA has seen anything over 2".

post-1263-0-04638700-1390202787_thumb.jp

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Alright... Ji, did you get into the 03z SREF plumes? :lol:

 

IAD: Taking out the 3 highest and 3 lowest plumes... the mean is 9.5".  Lowest plume is around 1.5" and highest is just over 2 feet.

 

DCA: Taking out the 3 highest and 3 lowest plumes... the mean is 9.9".  Lowest plume is 0.7" and highest is just under 2 feet.

 

BWI: Taking out the 3 highest and 3 lowest plumes... the mean is 9.5".  Lowest plume is just under 2" and highest is just under 2 feet.

 

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140120&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=39.43168840373806&mLON=-75.19084609375&mTYP=roadmap

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

.5" line went from SE of DC at 0z to cover all of MD, DE, NJ and southern PA on this 06z run

 

Waiting to see exact amounts locally

 

0.25"...I think everyone is less than 0.5"...many in the 0.35" - 0.4" I think

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