1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[usedtobe]

Do you know the QPF on the UKIE Wes? Like 0.3?

I think at least that based on where the 10 mm line was.  Based on its 500, I think that much QPF is a stretch. 

[Avdave]

DT honking that no one , and he means no one has snow in their forecast for Tues.  LWX has had it in their forecast for here since yesterday. 

[AvantHiatus]

Cooking up some cold smoke to blow it westward, looks like a nice event for most if that front-running vort tracks through. More storm opportunities later down the road.

[usedtobe]

Do you know the QPF on the UKIE Wes? Like 0.3?

I relooked at the ukmet and it looks like it has around .25.   I misread which color was which. 

[Joe Vanni]

JMA gives us .2 - .25" liquid with the clipper. Not even trying to be a weenie, but I think the Euro is too low with it's qpf. It's been a trend with these systems and I think it'll up it on tonight's 00z runs. Plus the Euro seems to be lowest with the QPF compared to most models.

[usedtobe]

DT honking that no one , and he means no one has snow in their forecast for Tues.  LWX has had it in their forecast for here since yesterday. 

We've been talking about it here granted it looks better than it did a day ago but there has always been a clipper.  He's also onto something for the weekend (I think).  I don't see it unless he is talking about the next clipper sometime late Sunday or early Monday.   I could see that possibility but still no big storm. 

[HighStakes]

JMA gives us .2 - .25" liquid with the clipper. Not even trying to be a weenie, but I think the Euro is too low with it's qpf. It's been a trend with these systems and I think it'll up it on tonight's 00z runs. Plus the Euro seems to be lowest with the QPF compared to most models.

It could be a little low. Many times the Euro will bump up a bit right before the event. Euro also seems to have a shorter duration with the precip. Right now .10 area wide looks like a good bet. Anything over .20 as now looks to be pushing it.

[snow.]

looks like maybe 1/2" to 1" for me...I could also see getting dry slotted....I am not too excited about this event...hopefully I at least see some flakes falling for an hour or 2 

[Bob Chill]

I'm pretty interested on how the rgem presents with this one leading in. Not sure the globals are the ones to hang a hat on. It's a pretty small piece of real estate. Best track of the string. We'll see how things look overnight and tomorrow. I think matt gets a cold 1"+

[Ian]

The CRAS purples northern MD.

 

 

It's due for a coup.

[usedtobe]

looks like maybe 1/2" to 1" for me...I could also see getting dry slotted....I am not too excited about this event...hopefully I at least see some flakes falling for an hour or 2 

I don't think this is a dry slot storm but a low QPF one.  

[stormtracker]

[aldie 22]

To see the results of that squall on Saturday morning was pretty impressive with not so cold temps...would love to see the same qpf with temps 5-7 degrees colder

[stormtracker]

The CRAS purples northern MD.

 

cras45na_pcp_060m.gif

 

It's due for a coup.

 

Is that model missing a parameter or ingesting an extra one?   How and why does it do that every time.  It's like the Ji of models.  

[Kmlwx]

Is that model missing a parameter or ingesting an extra one?   How and why does it do that every time.  It's like the Ji of models.  

The better question is why they run it at all. I feel like they could probably do more by putting even more effort into the GFS. 

[Ian]

Is that model missing a parameter or ingesting an extra one? How and why does it do that every time. It's like the Ji of models.

it might have been created just to make fun of. But I'm rooting for it on this one.

[usedtobe]

I think the NAM is going to come in wetter based on the strength of the vort.  Dangerous type of guess.

[DDweatherman]

Looks pretty solid Rand. Thanks for the post.

[stormtracker]

I think the NAM is going to come in wetter based on the strength of the vort.  Dangerous type of guess.

I thought the same thing...I'm glad you said it tho

[snow.]

I don't think this is a dry slot storm but a low QPF one.  

 

I'm worried about the euro and a coastal amplifying too far east...but perhaps my worry isnt warranted...I also do tend to hug the euro too much

[stormtracker]

I think the NAM is going to come in wetter based on the strength of the vort.  Dangerous type of guess.

lol, compare the 12z NAM at 42 hours to 18z at 36 hours

[snow.]

haha   NAM'ed

[usedtobe]

haha   NAM'ed

Yep but I'd rather than than have it show nothing.  It will get me to watch the GFS this afternoon.   It's interesting that about 4 of the sref solutions were similar.  I blew them off but something in between the NAm and this morning's GFS is possible. 

[Ian]

CRAS may be leading the way

[snow.]

Yep but I'd rather than than have it show nothing.  It will get me to watch the GFS this afternoon.   It's interesting that about 4 of the sref solutions were similar.  I blew off but something in between the NAm and this morning's GFS is possible. 

 

NAM has a 0.5" contour like 20 miles to your south...congrats on your 5" again

[yoda]

18z NAM 2-4 inches of fluff

 

Based off the AmWx 24 hr snowfall accum maps

[usedtobe]

NAM has a 0.5" contour like 20 miles to your south...congrats on your 5" again

I'm glad you're winking.   If it were right, this is one of the types I can do better than Ji and Leesburg. 

[snow.]

18z NAM 2-3 inches of fluff

 

more like 4

[yoda]

more like 4

 

True, but I was using the 50% "rule" since we know QPF on NAM is usually overdone for us

 

And also surface is like -6C which is in the 20-25 range with decent 850s... too bad its the NAM

[nj2va]

18z NAM 2-4 inches of fluff

Based off the AmWx 24 hr snowfall accum maps

The .3 line is literally knocking on DCA's door.

Edit: just saw you edited the post before I could reply.