1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[winter_warlock]

lol there is this however...

 

I wonder what Sterling Does tomorrow

hmmm I was wondering that too, I wonder if theyed start issuing watching after seeing tonights suite, I guess that would depend on the euro. but if euro comes in dry, it might  be the out lier

[Bob Chill]

for 3" we are probably safe with 0.22" or so...The NAM is obviously way too far south and out to lunch...funny that it moves south and drier as every other piece of guidance moves the other direction...though predictable

I stopped looking at the nam for qpf and mid-upper levels this year. I do like it for cad and 850's though. I rarely if ever comment on its qpf solutions. I thank you for that

[nj2va]

cras superbands the usual fringers for like 12 hours. congrats guys.

Sparky up in north md just wants enough to sweep off his sidewalk....

[Amped]

I wonder what Sterling Does tomorrow

Probably a Watch with a 3-5" forecast. 

[ravensrule]

I guess it was already posted that the canadian has 0.50"+ for DC to BWI and points NW?

Yes the GGEM that is.

[mitchnick]

I wonder what Sterling Does tomorrow

kicks it around in the AFD, hits hard on the doubts surrounding the storm regardless of the models, talks about how hard it is to snow in DC, then passes it on to the next shift

[Ian]

Sparky up in north md just wants enough to sweep off his sidewalk....

He has like 95% chance of 10" even if the Euro stays dry.

[winter_warlock]

you know as much as we all bash the CRAS, it has actually been right  at least a few times this winter when all other models were wrong,  after cras sniffed out a snow even the other models jumped on board,   lol  happened a few times,  like to see it happen again

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

lol there is this however...

Run of the mill hecs. We had 3 in 09/10. Next.

[Snowlover33]

Probably a Watch with a 3-5" forecast.

Probably a Watch that will last for 5 hours, followed by an advisory, followed by a warning as the event starts

[ravensrule]

I think a good over under line on the euro is .35 at dca. I'm taking the under

I will definitely take the under. I say .23 at DCA.

[DDweatherman]

Run of the mill hecs. We had 3 in 09/10. Next.

Haven't you had 3 this winter already? Psh. 

[winter_warlock]

Probably a Watch that will last for 5 hours, followed by an advisory, followed by a warning as the event starts

lmao it is how they've done things this winter lol

[DDweatherman]

I will definitely take the under. I say .23 at DCA.

Yea I'm at .17, bearish on the euro; not, however, bearish on the storm. 

[Ian]

you know as much as we all bash the CRAS, it has actually been right  at least a few times this winter when all other models were wrong,  after cras sniffed out a snow even the other models jumped on board,   lol  happened a few times,  like to see it happen again

The CRAS is way overamped with like 99% of events so it's bound to be "right" here and there from range. And it won't be close on liquid.

[PhineasC]

Waiting on the meh...

[Bob Chill]

you know as much as we all bash the CRAS, it has actually been right at least a few times this winter when all other models were wrong, after cras sniffed out a snow even the other models jumped on board, lol happened a few times, like to see it happen again

The cras isn't even a weather model. It's the result of a freshman met student afterschool club project. It was only allowed in banter last couple years. Our mods have lost their edge

[nj2va]

Yea I'm at .17, bearish on the euro; not, however, bearish on the storm.

I'll go with .26.

[winter_warlock]

The CRAS is way overamped with like 99% of events so it's bound to be "right" here and there from range. And it won't be close on liquid.

yeah very true Ian, even a broken clock is right twice a day lol

[ravensrule]

Waiting on the meh...

More like next if Matt is first.

[winter_warlock]

The cras isn't even a weather model. It's the result of a freshman met student afterschool club project. It was only allowed in banter last couple years. Our mods have lost their edge

lol  up till this year I though people just posted the cras to be funny, I always thought the cras was crap

[ravensrule]

Yea I'm at .17, bearish on the euro; not, however, bearish on the storm. 

But if the other models don't change i bet it will be at .35 by 0Z tomorrow night.

[mitchnick]

More like next if Matt is first.

this is all I need to see from Matt to know when it's a good Euro run......

[DDweatherman]

this is all I need to see from Matt to know when it's a good Euro run......

Yea you are pretty much correct on that one, seen it a number of times. 

[winter_warlock]

almost euro time...

[snow.]

DCA

 

0z NAM

 

0.22", 1pm temp Tuesday - 21

 

0z GFS

 

0.34", 1pm temp Tuesday - 18

[ravensrule]

this is all I need to see from Matt to know when it's a good Euro run......

Yup, that fact you are up this late is more exciting than all the luminaries that have posted here tonight.

[KAOS]

Worthless commentary....This is looks to be shaping into an interesting turn of events.

[ravensrule]

DCA

 

0z NAM

 

0.22", 1pm temp Tuesday - 21

 

0z GFS

 

0.34", 1pm temp Tuesday - 18

Do you have any clue when was the last storm that we had respectable QPF that had the temps that cold during the day?.

[Ian]

Worthless commentary....This is looks to be shaping into an interesting turn of events.

it has been a bit banter filled. guessing model precip etc can go there: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42461-january-banter-banter-thread-part2/