1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[winter_warlock]

I agree but you cannot deny that the model trends have been amazing and that if the Euro come more in line it is not lunacy to think someone in Northern MD will get 10" from this. Plus if we get the upper end of current modeled QPF that would give someone 10".

with high snow ratios of 15:1 or 20: 1  high snow totals  can happen with lower  QPF

[Ian]

it isnt that....It is that people get so carried away and lost in model fantasy world...12 hours ago, we were talking about how this is the type of system that will have limited moisture.....

 

Some of the "atmospheric memory" stuff is actually legit IMO. I mean you can lose hugging a seasonal pattern.. but in general we haven't been totally hurting in the moisture end.  None of the last set of clippers looked good at all.. they came in too far east and stayed too far north. This one has the potential to dig enough moisture for a modest event.  Getting .5" into a cold air mass isn't as impossible as it might seem of late.  If the Euro give us like .1" I'm out though. My concern is less about possible moisture and more about getting everything else right. Not having a deepening low coming out of the gulf is always a dance around here.. heck even sometimes that doesnt work.

[Amped]

10" is possible.. but probably close to the upper limit as we see now. No way you can say anyone is getting that for sure with the Euro as it is. If it comes in dry at 0z it's an issue IMO.  I don't think it will.. but it's not going to be super wet either. 

 

Wildly guessing is one thing but there's no reason to totally hug the models that are still moving into a solution. I'd lean toward the wetter scenarios given the look at multiple levels.

No 18z GEFS ensemble member had less than the 12z operational so yeah it was an interesting turn of events today trend may not be done.  Euro will be wetter than 12z, hopefully by a lot.  Looks a lot like the SW came into a better sampling area and all the models changed.

[HighStakes]

I agree but you cannot deny that the model trends have been amazing and that if the Euro come more in line it is not lunacy to think someone in Northern MD will get 10" from this. Plus if we get the upper end of current modeled QPF that would give someone 10".

If you insist, I'll except 10. At that point why stop there. Make it 12.

[winter_warlock]

rest of the GFS run looking superb

southern stream and cold air are back again in tandem

I hope it  holds, looking like an exciting next 2-3 weeks

[ravensrule]

The thing is I don't give 2 sh--its what someone in N MD gets....I dont care if they get a T or 40".....All I care about is my backyard

I know that but i was just responding to your LOL comment about what i said. The problem is your backyard sorta sucks for snow and we know you are not moving or commuting so you have to live with your lot. I will still be pulling for you to get 4" because you enjoy snow more than anyone i have ever met.

[HighStakes]

rest of the GFS run looking superb

southern stream and cold air are back again in tandem

Much colder for next Monday. Could be another major arctic blast. Coming around to the Euro in terms of cold.

[ravensrule]

If you insist, I'll except 10. At that point why stop there. Make it 12.

You would need some serious enhancement to get 12"   .

[snow.]

Some of the "atmospheric memory" stuff is actually legit IMO. I mean you can lose hugging a seasonal pattern.. but in general we haven't been totally hurting in the moisture end.  None of the last set of clippers looked good at all.. they came in too far east and stayed too far north. This one has the potential to dig enough moisture for a modest event.  Getting .5" into a cold air mass isn't as impossible as it might seem of late.  If the Euro give us like .1" I'm out though. My concern is less about possible moisture and more about getting everything else right. Not having a deepening low coming out of the gulf is always a dance around here.. heck even sometimes that doesnt work.

 

The euro will be wetter...it may even be really wet...It was the wettest solution by far for Jan 2 at this range...My guess it will show 0.20" or so which seems reasonable....Assuming it gives us 0.20", then I think a 3-4" event is a reasonable forecast  for DC based on guidance...can always bump it up tomorrow...but track could easily shift....

[winter_warlock]

You would need some serious enhancement to get 12"   .

you could have .40-.50 of qpf and a snow ratio of 20:1  and could get 12 inches,  I think it would be the top end but its possible

[HighStakes]

You would need some serious enhancement to get 12"   .

You are relentless.

[DCAlexandria]

Ukie??

[snow.]

I guess it was already posted that the canadian has 0.50"+ for DC to BWI and points NW?

[Ian]

The euro will be wetter...it may even be really wet...It was the wettest solution by far for Jan 2 at this range...My guess it will show 0.20" or so which seems reasonable....Assuming it gives us 0.20", then I think a 3-4" event is a reasonable forecast  for DC based on guidance...can always bump it up tomorrow...but track could easily shift....

It would be hard to go much higher than that in DC for sure as of now. There's plenty of time for more shifts north. I think the GFS is probably underdone on liquid in spots though particularly NE MD and up the coast toward CC.  The vort gets captured as the trough goes neg tilt and probably hammers NE MD/S J for a bit there.  Someone should come away with a nice total... 3-4 would work for me.. especially since it will prob be more uniform compared to last time.

[winter_warlock]

I guess it was already posted that the canadian has 0.50"+ for DC to BWI and points NW?

just curious, does the Canadian  have a wet bias?

[yoda]

Ukie??

 

Already posted... read the thread

[Ian]

I guess it was already posted that the canadian has 0.50"+ for DC to BWI and points NW?

[Bob Chill]

just curious, does the Canadian have a wet bias?

That and a flat out wrong bias. But in this rare case it has support so...

[winter_warlock]

cmc_total_precip_east_13.png

nice I hope the  increase of qpf continues  tonight with the euro

[DDweatherman]

Just for Ian, don't yell at me. 

[winter_warlock]

That and a flat out wrong bias. But in this rare case it has support so...

ahhh ok ty Bob

[Bob Chill]

I think a good over under line on the euro is .35 at dca. I'm taking the under

[Ian]

Just for Ian, don't yell at me. 

lol I was just looking myself. no purples anymore in md but respectable.  #CRAScoup

[DDweatherman]

I think a good over under line on the euro is .35 at dca. I'm taking the under

I actually think the Euro will be a hold out in a few. .15-.2 likely. 

[snow.]

It would be hard to go much higher than that in DC for sure as of now. There's plenty of time for more shifts north. I think the GFS is probably underdone on liquid in spots though particularly NE MD and up the coast toward CC.  The vort gets captured as the trough goes neg tilt and probably hammers NE MD/S J for a bit there.  Someone should come away with a nice total... 3-4 would work for me.. especially since it will prob be more uniform compared to last time.

 

for 3" we are probably safe with 0.22" or so...The NAM is obviously way too far south and out to lunch...funny that it moves south and drier as every other piece of guidance moves the other direction...though predictable

[DDweatherman]

lol I was just looking myself. no purples anymore in md but respectable.  #CRAScoup

lol there is this however...

[Snowlover33]

I wonder what Sterling Does tomorrow

[snow.]

just curious, does the Canadian  have a wet bias?

 

it has a suck bias

[Ian]

cras superbands the usual fringers for like 12 hours. congrats guys.

 

[Ian]

lol there is this however...

 

it's too bad there is this lengthy lull before the euro. multiple cras maps. :-/